Can CUSA steal a 2nd Bid this year?

[SquireJack]

Going into the CUSA tourney it looks like ODU will barely be inside the RPI Top 50. La Tech will be somewhere around 60. Nobody else would appear to have a chance of making the field except by winning the tourney.

Anybody think that if La Tech beats ODU in the title game that CUSA could realistically steal a second bid from a mid-major? Problem for both La Tech and ODU would seem go be an inability to gain much in RPI given the weakness of the rest of the conference. Except by beating each other, and maybe WKU along the way, there aren't any "quality wins" to be had in the tourney.

How far does Marshall get before elimination?

 

[SuperAnjario]

If ODU loses in championship to La Tech there is a chance. ODU is on a lot of "first few out lists."

I think ODU may well win the tournament though.

 

[Mike Gwinn]

According to Keith Morehouse, the Herd will play WKU in the first round of the tournament.

 

[oldeherd]

Oh, well, time to get a serious mindset about HERD spring football. As for BB, realistically best thing for future will be no prolonged post season so that DD and staff can hit the recruiting trails hard ASAP, and evaluate the returning talent (and whether all said talent should return next season).

 

[SquireJack]

Tonight's beatdown of WKU by ODU is maybe a mixed blessing for CUSA. Helps ODU's RPI somewhat, but probably takes Some of the luster away from a win over WKU during the tournament. After Murray St. Lost to Belmont in the OVC championship, that may take a bid away from one of the other mid-majors if Murray manages to get an at-large invite. ODU should win the CUSA tourney, and if they do, it's virtually certain that CUSA will remain a perpetual one-bid league. With 14 league teams, that's pretty sad.

In the past, when Memphis was still a member and winning CUSA every year, it was a situation in which Memphis was just way better than anybody else, and that meant no other teams from CUSA could ever manage to get invited at-large. I had hoped that when Memphis and the others left for the AAC, that perhaps it might open things up for an occasional at-large team from CUSA. Truthfully, though, Memphis isn't even able to dominate in a much-weaker version of the old Big East. Makes it really seem like the present iteration of CUSA is a far weaker conference than I had thought it would be. Seems like the talent level at Memphis just wasn't as good as playing in CUSA made it seem like, when Memphis practically sleepwalked through CUSA every year before "stumbling" early in the Dance.

As for Marshall this year, going into conference play their best effort (by far) was the close loss to WVU. After they lost to the Gamecocks, I couldn't see 10 wins. They've managed 11 with a reasonable chance to win their first tourney game; but that's probably it. That would be a 12-21 season. Not good, but a bit better than I expected. Question is whether that is reflective of somewhat better talent, or whether the league teams are really that bad, overall. Thoughts?

I'm still hoping that if things break perfectly, maybe La Tech can steal a bid, but that seems unlikely (unless they win out), in which case that may just keep ODU from getting a bid. It would be nice to have a CUSA rooting interest in the Dance beyond the first round game...

 

[ARandomHerdFan]

Oh boy... more SquireJack.
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[SquireJack]

Whatever.

I (like plenty of others) predicted 8 to 10 wins for Marshall half-way thru the non-conference season. That was even starting to look unlikely until that recent nice little run before losing the last couple on the road; no shame in that, especially the ODU loss. So all in all, better than expected this season - and with occasional spurts showing signs of improvement. I think that's a very fair assessment.

I also thought (hoped, anyway) that when Memphis left CUSA it would leave a real opportunity for the conference to get a second NCAA bid. That might still happen this year - but things will have to break perfectly in the CUSA tourney with no more "surprises" like Belmont winning the OVC tourney, which may get the OVC an unexpected at-large second bid (Murray St.). We'll see. But again, a fair assessment of where CUSA stands right now.

I like basketball and would like to see more than a single CUSA participant in the Big Dance each year. Let's hope that both ODU and La Tech get in. Would live to see the Herd catch fire and win it all, but realistically, playing away from the Cam, Marshall hasn't showed very much. Just the facts. But you never know... and with nothing to lose, they can play hard and loose and see what happens.

 

[Raoul Duke MU]

If Murray doesn't get a ALB I will be disgusted with the NCAA. Seriously.

 

[SquireJack]

I'm with you on an at-large for the Racers, Raoul, but as of last night Lunardi and the ESPN analysts were still predicting that the OVC would just get one team (Belmont, with the auto-bid). Murray St. entered the tourney championship ranked #25 with the nation's second longest win streak (behind UK), so I agree they seem to deserve an at-large invite. But that would negatively impact the slim chances for another CUSA team by, obviously, taking an at-large that would have gone to a team (like La Tech or ODU) from another conference.

We'll see how the CUSA tourney plays out this year. The larger issue, IMO, is whether the current version of CUSA has the strength to get any of its members into the Dance with an ALB. Memphis always loaded up with early OOC games against power teams which helped it offset the conference schedule weakness. But since they always ended up winning the auto-bid anyway, it was difficult to tell whether the Tigers would have gotten an at-large had they been upset in the CUSA tourney. I'm wondering how the selection committee views the league's strength currently, after the departure of Memphis et al. There seems to be a bit more balance at the top of CUSA, but is that just a result of "subtraction" due to the departure of the league's only marquee program? If so, it is probably going to be a one-bid-league, but I hope not.

 

[Herdmeister]

Originally posted by SquireJack:


As for Marshall this year, going into conference play their best effort (by far) was the close loss to WVU.

Marshall played better in both the WKU and UTEP wins at home than they did against wvu.

As for 2 bid league, I believe that both La Tech and ODU have a real shot.
This post was edited on 3/8 9:50 AM by Herdmeister

 

[ohio herd]

I feel that giving a second bid to Murry because they lost to Belmont would be unfair if it kept a second team like ODU out. At some point they need to take care of business when it counts or punch a ticket to the NIT. Now if Belmont had a good season as well I wouldn't say this.At the end of the day they will give a 19-11 team from the Big 10 a bid over a 26 win team from C-USA, mark it down!

 

[SquireJack]

Herdmeister, you can certainly argue that the Herd's home wins over WKU and UTEP were better efforts than the close neutral court loss to WVU. But that wasn't what I'd said in my quote. Read it again. I said, "going into conference play" the Herd's best effort was the WVU loss. In other words, its OOC slate of games. I do agree, though, that while there's a chance this year for 2 bids, most likely the Committee will pass over the CUSA tourney runner-up for an at-large bid in favor of a Power 5 team with a much worse W-L record, but with the benefit of a getting a couple more RPI "quality wins" during their conference tourney. Happens every year.

This post was edited on 3/8 5:01 PM by SquireJack

 

[Herdmeister]

Originally posted by SquireJack:
Herdmeister, you can certainly argue that the Herd's home wins over WKU and UTEP were better efforts than the close neutral court loss to WVU. But that wasn't what I'd said in my quote. Read it again. I said, "going into conference play" the Herd's best effort was the WVU loss. In other words, its OOC slate of games. I do agree, though, that while there's a chance this year for 2 bids, most likely the Committee will pass over the CUSA tourney runner-up for an at-large bid in favor of a Power 5 team with a much worse W-L record, but with the benefit of a getting a couple more RPI "quality wins" during their conference tourney. Happens every year.

This post was edited on 3/8 5:01 PM by SquireJack

Oops, sorry I missed that...

 

[flairforherd]

Originally posted by ohio herd:
I feel that giving a second bid to Murry because they lost to Belmont would be unfair if it kept a second team like ODU out. At some point they need to take care of business when it counts or punch a ticket to the NIT. Now if Belmont had a good season as well I wouldn't say this.At the end of the day they will give a 19-11 team from the Big 10 a bid over a 26 win team from C-USA, mark it down!

How would it not be fair to ODU? If ODU does not win the CUSAT and the auto bid, you could probably make the same arguments about Murray and ODU, for and against. Now, I have no idea how those two stack up head-to-head. I just don't see the logic in your initial statement.

 

[Corey Bodden]

On the Murray State topic...

Despite being 27-5, their resume is not that impressive given the record. They only have one win against teams in the RPI top 100 (Illinois State - 68), according to ESPN's listing of RPI listed on the individual team's homepage.

They are 1-2 in games against the top 100 with losses to Xavier (89-62) and a blowout against Valpo (93-58).

By count they only have 3 wins against teams in the top 150 in RPI: WKU (104), Belmont (106), and Evansville (113). It appears (by my count) that 23 of their 27 wins come against teams ranked outside of the top 150.

Granted four of their five losses have come against teams in the top 137 in RPI: Xavier (37), Valpo (61), Belmont (106) and Portland (137).

I think their lack of signature wins (against top 100 RPI teams) and their weak schedule will cost them. If you go by resume, their resume falls short in terms of getting in as an at-large team.

Don't get me wrong their 25-game winning streak is impressive no matter what league your in. But, the strength of the OVC in RPI (or lack of strength) will ultimately cost them IMO along with their lack of multiple signature wins.

 

[SquireJack]

Corey, you make legitimate points on Murray State's RPI analysis, and that's probably ESPN's rationale for predicting that only Belmont will get invited. But 25 straight wins, as you say, is one heck of achievement these days (especially in the men's game). If the Racers do get passed over, they'll no doubt have plenty of sympathetic support from fans of other "lower mid-major" leagues, which suffer the same slights each year on Selection Sunday. (BTW, that's my made-up term for conferences that usually just get an auto-bid, but which are good enough to "steal" an occasional ALB when things break just right. CUSA is similarly situated, which is why the Racer's fate could effect a team like ODU if they fall short of winning the CUSA-T.)

 

[oldeherd]

Guys, to the Power 5 sycophants, particularly the various blah, blah, blah analysts, bracketologists and other airheads at the ESPN "family of networks", Murray State is the basketball equivalent to the 2014 Thundering Herd football team. These "experts" will use every argument, fact and fiction under the sun to spell out to the selection committee why this year's Racer BB team SHOULD NOT be included in the 2015 Big Dance, just like they did to see that the Herd was excluded from a big money bowl game!!