How much have we improved?, and Where do we stack up within our conference?
People have been asking those questions over the past few weeks. I've kinda been wondering myself, so I decided to take a deep look into our numbers vs the conference in a few (what I feel are) key areas. I dont know if this data will help answer the questions, but I got bored while off work on MLK Jr Day, so I started putting some numbers in excel and have been playing around with them this week. So I figured I'd share what I found....
First, I kinda wanted to throw away the first part of the season when trying to find out how good we are. We know that was garbage & doesn't reflect what we are now. So instead of looking at the season as a whole, I started looking at our #s in our last 12 games and comparing those #s to the last 12 games our conference opponents have played vs D1 teams. In those last 12 games I looked at avg RPI of opponent, record, avg points scored, avg points allowed, & point differential. Pretty simple stuff.
Charlotte
Avg. Opponent RPI: 158
Record: 3-9
Points Scored: 75.3
Points Allowed: 79.6
Point Differential: -4.3
FAU
Avg. Opponent RPI: 169
Record: 2-10
Points Scored: 61.2
Points Allowed: 71.9
Point Differential: -10.8
FIU
Avg. Opponent RPI: 212
Record: 5-7
Points Scored: 73.3
Points Allowed: 73.2
Point Differential: +0.1
La Tech
Avg. Opponent RPI: 213
Record: 7-5
Points Scored: 77.3
Points Allowed: 75.9
Point Differential: +1.4
Marshall
Avg. Opponent RPI: 203
Record: 9-3
Points Scored: 87.5
Points Allowed: 79.4
Point Differential: +8.1
MTSU
Avg. Opponent RPI: 152
Record: 8-4
Points Scored: 71.4
Points Allowed: 67.8
Point Differential: +3.6
North Texas
Avg. Opponent RPI: 197
Record: 5-7
Points Scored: 74.7
Points Allowed: 80.3
Point Differential: -5.6
ODU
Avg. Opponent RPI: 175
Record: 6-6
Points Scored: 67.0
Points Allowed: 61.2
Point Differential: +5.8
Rice
Avg. Opponent RPI: 221
Record: 4-8
Points Scored: 78.8
Points Allowed: 81.4
Point Differential: -2.6
So Miss
Avg. Opponent RPI: 187
Record: 4-8
Points Scored: 58.3
Points Allowed: 65.6
Point Differential: -7.3
UAB
Avg. Opponent RPI: 203
Record: 11-1
Points Scored: 80.0
Points Allowed: 69.4
Point Differential: +10.6
UTEP
Avg. Opponent RPI: 203
Record: 4-8
Points Scored: 71.2
Points Allowed: 74.5
Point Differential: -3.3
UTSA
Avg. Opponent RPI: 190
Record: 2-10
Points Scored: 72.7
Points Allowed: 86.4
Point Differential: -13.7
WKU
Avg. Opponent RPI: 185
Record: 6-6
Points Scored: 75.0
Points Allowed: 79. 5
Point Differential: -4.5
By just looking at that raw data, you can see that we're currently playing like one of the better teams in the conference. Highest scoring, but also one of the worst defenses. But if you look at the point differential, we're one of the best (by a wide margin w/UAB) in the conference. The SOS are somewhat comparable with avg RPIs of opponents in that span ranging from 152-221 (MTSU-Rice, respectively). So, to answer the first question, I think we're a pretty good team right now for a CUSA team. Nothing great, but definitely something to be proud of considering where we were at such a short time ago.
Which leads me to the next question: How much have we improved? I wanted to break up our season into 3 separate categories & compare the data I used above to maybe track progression.
Marshall vs first 6 opponents
Avg. opponent RPI: 110
Record: 0-6
Points Scored: 71.5
Points Allowed: 87.5
Point Differential: -16
Marshall vs next 7 opponents (before CUSA play)
Avg Opponent RPI: 159
Record: 4-3
Points Scored: 82.3
Points Allowed: 80.1
Point Differential: +2.2
Marshall vs conference opponents
Avg. Opponent RPI: 256
Record: 5-0
Points Scored: 94.8
Points Allowed: 78.4
Point Differential: +16.4
Our quality of opponents have been steadily declining as the year has gone on, so it's hard to judge if the increase of production is largely due to that or largely because we've gotten a lot better. Looking at how we've played, I think it's a combination of things. 1) being the schedule has been much more manageable outside of the first 6 games, 2) Dan stopped experimenting & playing around with the lineups/rotations and just started sticking with his best 8 guys, & 3) we got our PG and everyone has kinda found their role on the team since that happened. A combination of those 3 things (how large of a role each three has played is up for debate) are why we've seen the turnaround we have, IMO.
I then dug a little deeper into the numbers to answer the third question: Where do we stack up within our conference? I wanted to find out how our conference has matched up in the limited amount of games we've played against each other...since that is really all that matters. Everyone in CUSA has played the same amount of conference games (5), so the data will not be skewed. I also wanted to take a different approach with this data as well. Instead of just looking at raw numbers (SOS, points for & against), I wanted to compare how teams have played against the average to get a better idea of how well we're playing vs the league. For instance, like how we're averaging 87.5pts/game in the past 12 games, that's great! But if we're playing teams who give up an average of 85pts/game, we're just +2.5 vs the average. That gives better context to how we're playing by comparing our results to what should be expected. So for each team in conference play, I'm going to post the average RPI of opponent, Offensive Quotient (points scored vs opponents' average points allowed), Defensive Quotient (points allowed vs the opponents' average points scored), Adjusted Scoring Margin (Offensive Quotient-Defensive Quotient), and the difference between conference ASM and the full season ASM.
Charlotte
Conference Opponent RPI: 156
Conference Record: 1-4
Conference Off Quotient: +8.2
Conference Def Quotient: -7.2
Conference ASM: +1.0
Full Season ASM: +5.1
Conference ASM vs Full Season: -4.1
FAU
Conference Opponent RPI: 208
Conference Record: 2-3
Conference Off Quotient: -8.9
Conference Def Quotient: +1.5
Conference ASM: -7.4
Full Season ASM: -10.6
Conference ASM vs Full Season: +3.2
FIU
Conference Opponent RPI: 208
Conference Record: 3-2
Conference Off Quotient: +1.5
Conference Def Quotient: -2.1
Conference Conference ASM: -0.6
Full Season ASM: -2.1
Conference ASM vs Full Season: +1.5
La Tech
Conference Opponent RPI: 243
Conference Record: 2-3
Conference Off Quotient: +3.3
Conference Def Quotient: -3.8
Conference ASM: -0.5
Full Season ASM: +2
Conference ASM vs Full Season: -2.5
Marshall
Conference Opponent RPI: 256
Conference Record: 5-0
Conference Off Quotient: +17.5
Conference Def Quotient: -5.8
Conference ASM: +11.7
Full Season ASM: +1.0
Conference ASM vs Full Season: +10.7
MTSU
Conference Opponent RPI: 215
Conference Record: 4-1
Conference Off Quotient: -2.0
Conference Def Quotient: +2.1
Conference ASM: +0.1
Full Season ASM: +2.1
Conference ASM vs Full Season: -2.0
North Texas
Conference Opponent RPI: 234
Conference Record: 2-3
Conference Off Quotient: -3.5
Conference Def Quotient: -3.4
Conference ASM: -6.9
Full Season ASM: -8.1
Conference ASM vs Full Season: +1.3
ODU
Conference Opponent RPI: 165
Conference Record: 2-3
Conference Off Quotient: -5.1
Conference Def Quotient: +5.7
Conference ASM: +0.6
Full Season ASM: +3.6
Conference ASM vs Full Season: -3.0
Rice
Conference Opponent RPI: 234
Conference Record: 1-4
Conference Off Quotient: -2.6
Conference Def Quotient: -5.0
Conference ASM: -7.7
Full Season ASM: -8.0
Conference ASM vs Full Season: +0.4
So Miss
Conference Opponent RPI: 218
Conference Record: 2-3
Conference Off Quotient: -7.8
Conference Def Quotient: -0.8
Conference ASM: -8.5
Full Season ASM: -10.3
Conference ASM vs Full Season: +1.8
UAB
Conference Opponent RPI: 206
Conference Record: 5-0
Conference Off Quotient: +9.1
Conference Def Quotient: -2.9
Conference ASM: +6.2
Full Season ASM: +5.1
Conference AMS vs Full Season: +1.1
UTEP
Conference Opponent RPI: 216
Conference Record: 2-3
Conference Off Quotient: -4.3
Conference Def Quotient: +1.3
Conference ASM: -3.0
Full Season ASM: -0.9
Conference ASM vs Full Season: -2.1
UTSA
Conference Opponent RPI: 196
Conference Record: 2-3
Conference Off Quotient: +0.3
Conference Def Quotient: -4.8
Conference ASM: -4.5
Full Season ASM: -16.3
Conference ASM vs Full Season: +11.8
WKU
Conference Opponent RPI: 252
Conference Record: 2-3
Conference Off Quotient: +0.3
Conference Def Quotient: -6.9
Conference ASM: -6.6
Full Season ASM: -1.4
Conference ASM vs Full Season:-5.2
That's a lot of data to sum up, so I'm going to try to keep this short. Obviously you can see that some teams have played a harder conference schedule than others. We still have our hardest opponents in front of us. We have the lowest conference opponent RPI. However, you can see by the adjusted scoring margin that we've been dominating the teams we should be dominating. Our +17.5 offensive quotient almost doubles the next best team, which is UAB (9.1). Our defensive quotient is one of the worst in conference, as expected, but it isn't bad enough to wipe out our offensive numbers. Our adjusted scoring margin also almost doubles the next best team, which is UAB (6.2). We'll see if we can continue playing the way we have against better competition. I'm very interesting in seeing how we play against ODU on Saturday because going by the conference defensive quotient, they play the best defense (5.7) in the conference by a wide margin (MTSU being the second best with a 2.1 defensive quotient).
Not sure if anyone will want to read/look through all of that. I just thought I'd share.
People have been asking those questions over the past few weeks. I've kinda been wondering myself, so I decided to take a deep look into our numbers vs the conference in a few (what I feel are) key areas. I dont know if this data will help answer the questions, but I got bored while off work on MLK Jr Day, so I started putting some numbers in excel and have been playing around with them this week. So I figured I'd share what I found....
First, I kinda wanted to throw away the first part of the season when trying to find out how good we are. We know that was garbage & doesn't reflect what we are now. So instead of looking at the season as a whole, I started looking at our #s in our last 12 games and comparing those #s to the last 12 games our conference opponents have played vs D1 teams. In those last 12 games I looked at avg RPI of opponent, record, avg points scored, avg points allowed, & point differential. Pretty simple stuff.
Charlotte
Avg. Opponent RPI: 158
Record: 3-9
Points Scored: 75.3
Points Allowed: 79.6
Point Differential: -4.3
FAU
Avg. Opponent RPI: 169
Record: 2-10
Points Scored: 61.2
Points Allowed: 71.9
Point Differential: -10.8
FIU
Avg. Opponent RPI: 212
Record: 5-7
Points Scored: 73.3
Points Allowed: 73.2
Point Differential: +0.1
La Tech
Avg. Opponent RPI: 213
Record: 7-5
Points Scored: 77.3
Points Allowed: 75.9
Point Differential: +1.4
Marshall
Avg. Opponent RPI: 203
Record: 9-3
Points Scored: 87.5
Points Allowed: 79.4
Point Differential: +8.1
MTSU
Avg. Opponent RPI: 152
Record: 8-4
Points Scored: 71.4
Points Allowed: 67.8
Point Differential: +3.6
North Texas
Avg. Opponent RPI: 197
Record: 5-7
Points Scored: 74.7
Points Allowed: 80.3
Point Differential: -5.6
ODU
Avg. Opponent RPI: 175
Record: 6-6
Points Scored: 67.0
Points Allowed: 61.2
Point Differential: +5.8
Rice
Avg. Opponent RPI: 221
Record: 4-8
Points Scored: 78.8
Points Allowed: 81.4
Point Differential: -2.6
So Miss
Avg. Opponent RPI: 187
Record: 4-8
Points Scored: 58.3
Points Allowed: 65.6
Point Differential: -7.3
UAB
Avg. Opponent RPI: 203
Record: 11-1
Points Scored: 80.0
Points Allowed: 69.4
Point Differential: +10.6
UTEP
Avg. Opponent RPI: 203
Record: 4-8
Points Scored: 71.2
Points Allowed: 74.5
Point Differential: -3.3
UTSA
Avg. Opponent RPI: 190
Record: 2-10
Points Scored: 72.7
Points Allowed: 86.4
Point Differential: -13.7
WKU
Avg. Opponent RPI: 185
Record: 6-6
Points Scored: 75.0
Points Allowed: 79. 5
Point Differential: -4.5
By just looking at that raw data, you can see that we're currently playing like one of the better teams in the conference. Highest scoring, but also one of the worst defenses. But if you look at the point differential, we're one of the best (by a wide margin w/UAB) in the conference. The SOS are somewhat comparable with avg RPIs of opponents in that span ranging from 152-221 (MTSU-Rice, respectively). So, to answer the first question, I think we're a pretty good team right now for a CUSA team. Nothing great, but definitely something to be proud of considering where we were at such a short time ago.
Which leads me to the next question: How much have we improved? I wanted to break up our season into 3 separate categories & compare the data I used above to maybe track progression.
Marshall vs first 6 opponents
Avg. opponent RPI: 110
Record: 0-6
Points Scored: 71.5
Points Allowed: 87.5
Point Differential: -16
Marshall vs next 7 opponents (before CUSA play)
Avg Opponent RPI: 159
Record: 4-3
Points Scored: 82.3
Points Allowed: 80.1
Point Differential: +2.2
Marshall vs conference opponents
Avg. Opponent RPI: 256
Record: 5-0
Points Scored: 94.8
Points Allowed: 78.4
Point Differential: +16.4
Our quality of opponents have been steadily declining as the year has gone on, so it's hard to judge if the increase of production is largely due to that or largely because we've gotten a lot better. Looking at how we've played, I think it's a combination of things. 1) being the schedule has been much more manageable outside of the first 6 games, 2) Dan stopped experimenting & playing around with the lineups/rotations and just started sticking with his best 8 guys, & 3) we got our PG and everyone has kinda found their role on the team since that happened. A combination of those 3 things (how large of a role each three has played is up for debate) are why we've seen the turnaround we have, IMO.
I then dug a little deeper into the numbers to answer the third question: Where do we stack up within our conference? I wanted to find out how our conference has matched up in the limited amount of games we've played against each other...since that is really all that matters. Everyone in CUSA has played the same amount of conference games (5), so the data will not be skewed. I also wanted to take a different approach with this data as well. Instead of just looking at raw numbers (SOS, points for & against), I wanted to compare how teams have played against the average to get a better idea of how well we're playing vs the league. For instance, like how we're averaging 87.5pts/game in the past 12 games, that's great! But if we're playing teams who give up an average of 85pts/game, we're just +2.5 vs the average. That gives better context to how we're playing by comparing our results to what should be expected. So for each team in conference play, I'm going to post the average RPI of opponent, Offensive Quotient (points scored vs opponents' average points allowed), Defensive Quotient (points allowed vs the opponents' average points scored), Adjusted Scoring Margin (Offensive Quotient-Defensive Quotient), and the difference between conference ASM and the full season ASM.
Charlotte
Conference Opponent RPI: 156
Conference Record: 1-4
Conference Off Quotient: +8.2
Conference Def Quotient: -7.2
Conference ASM: +1.0
Full Season ASM: +5.1
Conference ASM vs Full Season: -4.1
FAU
Conference Opponent RPI: 208
Conference Record: 2-3
Conference Off Quotient: -8.9
Conference Def Quotient: +1.5
Conference ASM: -7.4
Full Season ASM: -10.6
Conference ASM vs Full Season: +3.2
FIU
Conference Opponent RPI: 208
Conference Record: 3-2
Conference Off Quotient: +1.5
Conference Def Quotient: -2.1
Conference Conference ASM: -0.6
Full Season ASM: -2.1
Conference ASM vs Full Season: +1.5
La Tech
Conference Opponent RPI: 243
Conference Record: 2-3
Conference Off Quotient: +3.3
Conference Def Quotient: -3.8
Conference ASM: -0.5
Full Season ASM: +2
Conference ASM vs Full Season: -2.5
Marshall
Conference Opponent RPI: 256
Conference Record: 5-0
Conference Off Quotient: +17.5
Conference Def Quotient: -5.8
Conference ASM: +11.7
Full Season ASM: +1.0
Conference ASM vs Full Season: +10.7
MTSU
Conference Opponent RPI: 215
Conference Record: 4-1
Conference Off Quotient: -2.0
Conference Def Quotient: +2.1
Conference ASM: +0.1
Full Season ASM: +2.1
Conference ASM vs Full Season: -2.0
North Texas
Conference Opponent RPI: 234
Conference Record: 2-3
Conference Off Quotient: -3.5
Conference Def Quotient: -3.4
Conference ASM: -6.9
Full Season ASM: -8.1
Conference ASM vs Full Season: +1.3
ODU
Conference Opponent RPI: 165
Conference Record: 2-3
Conference Off Quotient: -5.1
Conference Def Quotient: +5.7
Conference ASM: +0.6
Full Season ASM: +3.6
Conference ASM vs Full Season: -3.0
Rice
Conference Opponent RPI: 234
Conference Record: 1-4
Conference Off Quotient: -2.6
Conference Def Quotient: -5.0
Conference ASM: -7.7
Full Season ASM: -8.0
Conference ASM vs Full Season: +0.4
So Miss
Conference Opponent RPI: 218
Conference Record: 2-3
Conference Off Quotient: -7.8
Conference Def Quotient: -0.8
Conference ASM: -8.5
Full Season ASM: -10.3
Conference ASM vs Full Season: +1.8
UAB
Conference Opponent RPI: 206
Conference Record: 5-0
Conference Off Quotient: +9.1
Conference Def Quotient: -2.9
Conference ASM: +6.2
Full Season ASM: +5.1
Conference AMS vs Full Season: +1.1
UTEP
Conference Opponent RPI: 216
Conference Record: 2-3
Conference Off Quotient: -4.3
Conference Def Quotient: +1.3
Conference ASM: -3.0
Full Season ASM: -0.9
Conference ASM vs Full Season: -2.1
UTSA
Conference Opponent RPI: 196
Conference Record: 2-3
Conference Off Quotient: +0.3
Conference Def Quotient: -4.8
Conference ASM: -4.5
Full Season ASM: -16.3
Conference ASM vs Full Season: +11.8
WKU
Conference Opponent RPI: 252
Conference Record: 2-3
Conference Off Quotient: +0.3
Conference Def Quotient: -6.9
Conference ASM: -6.6
Full Season ASM: -1.4
Conference ASM vs Full Season:-5.2
That's a lot of data to sum up, so I'm going to try to keep this short. Obviously you can see that some teams have played a harder conference schedule than others. We still have our hardest opponents in front of us. We have the lowest conference opponent RPI. However, you can see by the adjusted scoring margin that we've been dominating the teams we should be dominating. Our +17.5 offensive quotient almost doubles the next best team, which is UAB (9.1). Our defensive quotient is one of the worst in conference, as expected, but it isn't bad enough to wipe out our offensive numbers. Our adjusted scoring margin also almost doubles the next best team, which is UAB (6.2). We'll see if we can continue playing the way we have against better competition. I'm very interesting in seeing how we play against ODU on Saturday because going by the conference defensive quotient, they play the best defense (5.7) in the conference by a wide margin (MTSU being the second best with a 2.1 defensive quotient).
Not sure if anyone will want to read/look through all of that. I just thought I'd share.
