I don't get it. I didn't know a Cat 4 was coming

[i am herdman]

Herd some guy from down in Florida(maybe Panama City) say I wouldn't have stayed if I would have know it was a Cat 4.

I am calling bull shit. I live in Hurricane prone state. Have a property on the coast in hurricane prone area(i.e. righ on coast). There is no way he didn't know unless he lived under a rock or was totally dysfunctional as a human being.

Even at the last minute you know. Hell, where did everybody go? Why are the cops and emergency people driving up and down the street making announcements, knocking on doors? Why are people boarding their houses and businesses. Why are they pulling all the boats out of the water. Why are schools closed?

Bull shit. You know. You don't live in a hurricane area and not know. You know what is coming and you watch it. You hear it. You see it.

Guy is either a dumb ass or lying. He knew it. He chose to rode it out. There is no way you don't know.
He chose to ride it out. Everybody knew what was coming.

Even at the last minute you could get out. You could say F, get in the car and haul ass before it got bad. You could go to a shelter which would be a better structure.

People like that piss me off. I sometimes get where people have the emotional appeal of staying because that is all they have. But, to say you didn't know it was a Cat 4 beast coming? You are a liar, sir. Many times if there is a evacuation order and you stay they will ask you for your name, you sign a paper saying they are not going to come and get you. They ask for your social security number and have you write it on your body. They also ask for a next of kin.

 

[Bankerreturns]

I will say this, the hype around Florence was ten times what it was for Michael. It was on every channel, every day, for weeks. Michael just didn't seem to get anywhere near the same coverage. Worked out that the former weakened and the latter strengthened. We still have a lot to learn about forecasting hurricanes.

 

[i am herdman]

I will say this, the hype around Florence was ten times what it was for Michael. It was on every channel, every day, for weeks. Michael just didn't seem to get anywhere near the same coverage. Worked out that the former weakened and the latter strengthened. We still have a lot to learn about forecasting hurricanes.

There is no way that guy who lived there didn't know. Not a chance. That guy is full of it. You know if live on the coast if a Cat 4 is coming. You know if Cat 1 or a tropical storm is coming.

 

[Raoul Duke MU]

I will say this, the hype around Florence was ten times what it was for Michael. It was on every channel, every day, for weeks. Michael just didn't seem to get anywhere near the same coverage. Worked out that the former weakened and the latter strengthened. We still have a lot to learn about forecasting hurricanes.

Because Sunday morning Michael was a tropical depression off the Yucatan. The storms that form around there and Cuba are often explosive and it's just not a lot of time to prepare, or to hype. Florence was a long track, long lasting Cape Verde storm. Florence was a named storm for fourteen days.

 

[i am herdman]

Because Sunday morning Michael was a tropical depression off the Yucatan. The storms that form around there and Cuba are often explosive and it's just not a lot of time to prepare, or to hype. Florence was a long track, long lasting Cape Verde storm. Florence was a named storm for fourteen days.

I agree, but that guy knew it was coming and they knew it was going to be bad. Especially when you live there. He had to know.

He should have said, I chose to ride the SOB out. There is no way you don't know what is coming when you live on the coast. Usually your neighbors are not putting plywood on their windows because it looks better. Hell, they told you for at least two days it was going to be a beast(if not more). He was trying to say that because he made a mistake by staying. When a Cat 4 is coming it takes all of 5 mins to get in your car and drive away. It did not just sneak up on him. He chose to ignore it.

 

[i am herdman]

The bad thing about a Gulf Hurricane is you know somebody is going to get F'ed up. No place for it to go. Not even a glimmer of an escape or it turns back out to sea or rides the cost and turns away. Like a pinball machine it is going to hit something. Nowhere for it go at all.

 

[Raoul Duke MU]

I agree, but that guy knew it was coming and they knew it was going to be bad. Especially when you live there. He had to know.

He should have said, I chose to ride the SOB out. There is no way you don't know what is coming when you live on the coast. Usually your neighbors are not putting plywood on their windows because it looks better. Hell, they told you for at least two days it was going to be a beast(if not more). He was trying to say that because he made a mistake by staying. When a Cat 4 is coming it takes all of 5 mins to get in your car and drive away. It did not just sneak up on him. He chose to ignore it.

Of course he knew. I know Bay County (that's PCB) was very clear to get the hell out of Dodge.

Shit, you think a couple dozen of the top storm chasers in the nation were there for a CAT 1? Jim Cantore and Reed Timmer are in town, you better GTFO.

 

[i am herdman]

Of course he knew. I know Bay County (that's PCB) was very clear to get the hell out of Dodge.

Shit, you think a couple dozen of the top storm chasers in the nation were there for a CAT 1? Jim Cantore and Reed Timmer are in town, you better GTFO.

I've seen what a Cat 1 will even do. Hurricanes are nothing to play around with. Cat 1 with rain like Florence is going to cause a lot of damage. Florence is going to probably be a top 10 in cost. I am seeing at least $45 billion and some say well above $50 billion when all is said and done. I can't describe the number of houses and buildings over a vast area damaged from water and flooding. If NC or SC would have had a large city on the coast it would have been monumentally even higher. I saw what Matthew did to the beaches and it was a Cat 1 that rode up the coast when it hit. Screw that being in something with the winds Michael had. That is a death wish. But, water usually gets more people than wind does.

 

[MarshallManiac]

People down here were given notice to evacuate about as early as could be expected considering it was a Tropical Depression on Sunday. People started evacuating on Monday and even here where I am in Okaloosa Co, everything south of 98 was a mandatory evac as of Tuesday at 6am. People basically had 2-2.5 days to prepare for the first rain bands. My family was here Friday-Monday so I didn't hear about the storm at all until Sunday evening.

 

[i am herdman]

People down here were given notice to evacuate about as early as could be expected considering it was a Tropical Depression on Sunday. People started evacuating on Monday and even here where I am in Okaloosa Co, everything south of 98 was a mandatory evac as of Tuesday at 6am. People basically had 2-2.5 days to prepare for the first rain bands. My family was here Friday-Monday so I didn't hear about the storm at all until Sunday evening.

Get the windy.com app or on-line the program computer and track them. Always check the tropics every few days during hurricane season. You not in Kansas, or WV anymore. haahahaa.

Seriously. Watch it every few days. That thing was down there for days and days and they knew it might become a cannonball.

 

[Raoul Duke MU]

Get the windy.com app or on-line the program computer and track them. Always check the tropics every few days during hurricane season. You not in Kansas, or WV anymore. haahahaa.

Seriously. Watch it every few days. That thing was down there for days and days and they knew it might become a cannonball.

@MarshallManiac and herdman: I use this a lot. PivotalWeather. Handy website and free. When you use the models just remember to adjust your time for UTC. 00z time is 7pm Eastern Standard Time, 6PM Central, etc. 18:00z is 1PM EST. Lots of toys here to play with, and you don't need to be a met to use them. First page shows pressure, click the choices for other stuff (precip amount and type, severe weather, you can learn a little bit about dynamics and check out CAPE and shear for TOR probabilities, etc.) There are easy websites that can teach the more advanced stuff, just google.

Of course remember the further out you go, the more the models are bullshit lol, especially for winter weather....damn things will tell you two feet of snow are coming a week out and you will get three inches.

To really get advanced learn to read Skew-T charts, that's good for picking a target area for chases.

http://www.pivotalweather.com/

Z time chart:

https://www.ready.noaa.gov/READYtime.php

 

[i am herdman]

Thanks Raoul. The GFS missed the strength of this one big time. Euro had it nailed. The GFS even missed it even as it went north into GA, Carolinas, and Virginia. The Euro had it nailed pretty well.

The only blessings with this storm(if there are any) is that it moved fast, wasn't a huge rain maker, and it was not vast in terms of size from one side to the other. But, nothing good comes from Hurricanes. The winds were incredible. Looks like a big weed eater went through there and just whacked everything. I keep learning about them and they are hard to figure out.

Appreciate the info, Raoul

 

[i am herdman]

I guess the people in that part of Florida didn't get it. Heard another lady who made it and survived in Mexico Beach on an interview last night. She literally says I had to go to work the next day and they said they thought it was going to hit Apalachicola so we stayed.

Helloooooo. Even it hits Apalachicola it is a hurricane and a major hurricane and you are right on the coast. You are still going to get hammered by wind, rain, surge, or all of them even it is down the road a bit. Doesn't matter if you are going to get a Cat 1 or Cat 5 you live in Zone A(on the coast)!

What went on up there? Florida is the number one state in terms of getting hit by hurricanes. They gave warnings.

Of course, I work with a guy whose family stayed right in Sandestin area because they had their weather app and thought they knew better. They got lucky. That storm shifts a bit and they are like the people going we though it would hit Apalachicola. Got lucky they were on the west side of it.

Seriously, this lady says she stayed in Mexico Beach because she thought it was going to hit Apalachicola. It is a hurricane. Not a dot on map. It is a big event. You live in Zone A.