Line moved from Marshall +2.5 to -1 overnight... what happened?
- Thread starter fedale
- Start date
Guess they figure the teams are basically even and give the nod to Miami - at home and their “Homecoming” game. Going all out to get big win in first game.
That means that people are betting on the Herd. The spread moves, depending on which team is getting the most bets.
I’m very familiar with sports betting and line movement. Betting lines do not move 3.5 points within a 24 hour period due to action, especially 6 days from kickoff.
Someone squealed whether it was something bad for Miami or favorable for Marshall.
Someone squealed whether it was something bad for Miami or favorable for Marshall.
That’s not true. Though a 3.5 move is big, especially in one day, it isn’t unheard of even void of any injuries or suspensions.
Like somebody mentioned, books will move a line to balance the money that was heavy on one team. If a big bet came in for Marshall, it could move a line on its own. This is supported by some books having the game even while another has Marshall -1.5.
A likely case is also that they are wanting more overall action on the game. To do this, books will either jump the spread to promote action or adjust the money line.
This is all accurate... When a particular game is not getting any action, one or two big bets can definitely move the line. For the sake of example, if someone were to come through with a $1 million bet because they feel like MU is a lock as an underdog, it would definitely move the line.
It's absolutely unheard of, for a CUSA vs MAC opening matchup, if there are no injuries or information that is being withheld from the public.
No sharps are pounding Marshall +2.5 down to -1 six days before kick off, that's just not reality. Sharps /Whales will pick their lines and hit it 1-2 days before the game... or the morning of if the line is still nice.
What is more likely? Someone betting $1 million on Marshall on opening week of college football, or there's some information that got leaked?
No sharps are pounding Marshall +2.5 down to -1 six days before kick off, that's just not reality. Sharps /Whales will pick their lines and hit it 1-2 days before the game... or the morning of if the line is still nice.
What is more likely? Someone betting $1 million on Marshall on opening week of college football, or there's some information that got leaked?
That’s simply almost all false info.
Steam moves are almost always the result of wise guys/professional (big money) bettors. Those guys don’t wait until the day of the game or day before. They bet when the line is right for them. It’s overwhemlingly the public that places their bets the day of the game or day before the game.
And I’m sure I can provide links from other sources claiming what I did, which is exactly opposite of what you’re claiming.
The Hawaii/Navy game moved 3 in just a handful of hours. It wasn’t due to any known injuries.
For a line to jump 3-3.5, and for it to be a result of injury/suspension, it would mean a major injury to a star player (almost always the starting QB), a massive suspension of multiple starters, big money being put on one side, or the books trying to entice more action on the game.
Seeing that the Marshall QB situation was already known to be questionable, it isn’t likely to be the case.
I've been doing this a very long time here is the deal.
big money does not go down on a game days out.
big money players do not make their move until just before game time -
think about it - if you're going to bet $100k on a game why on earth would
you bet it until the game is set to be played - there is NO REASON to bet a
lot of money on a game any time other than just before it starts.
logically the move is because Thompson has been practicing and will play or
other info coming in such as weather forecast, game plan, whatever - BUT I promise
you it is not because some pro bet a huge amount on the game four days before
kickoff. their bet will come in more like four minutes before kickoff.
big money does not go down on a game days out.
big money players do not make their move until just before game time -
think about it - if you're going to bet $100k on a game why on earth would
you bet it until the game is set to be played - there is NO REASON to bet a
lot of money on a game any time other than just before it starts.
logically the move is because Thompson has been practicing and will play or
other info coming in such as weather forecast, game plan, whatever - BUT I promise
you it is not because some pro bet a huge amount on the game four days before
kickoff. their bet will come in more like four minutes before kickoff.
That's almost all completely bogus. A few years ago, you spent almost an entire season putting your picks on Pullman. You had a losing record overall for the year and lost in the units you claimed you were betting on each. On top of that, you got caught changing your picks that you had posted AFTER the games finished and they lost. Not once, not twice, not three times, not four times, not five times, but six times, you came back AFTER a game had finished and claimed you had put a play on the winning team, but didn't have time to post it on Pullman. Miraculously, all six times you did that, you won. Strange how that works. And I believe all of these threads are in the archives.
Worse, you claimed to have "people" at the stadiums giving you inside information right before kickoff. Again, that is comically bogus. What were they doing - telling you that the weather report was accurate? Telling you that #10's pants aren't tight enough? Nobody who has a losing record all season has "people" sitting around at stadiums giving them inside information right before kickoff.
Your claim that big money doesn't come days before (or even weeks) shows you to be entirely clueless about this. Sharp bets are what make the line move frequently. Those professional bettors jump when they get the line they want. They don't wait until right before kickoff, because the line may have moved a different way during the week the line was set and the day of the game.
Hell, there are entire gambling methods that rely on determining which side sharp bettors are betting and taking what side they do. That can't happen if those big bets happen right before kickoff.
Here is an article about a professional gambler:
Denver initially opened as 1-point underdogs after the conference championship games but were then bet hard and fast by recreational gamblers (commonly known as "squares") and pros ("sharps") alike, which resulted in a 3.5-point line swing, to Denver -2.5, as the books attempted to even out the betting. Most books had settled on that number by Monday of Super Bowl week, and there it remained through gameday morning.
This shows that the professional gamblers jumped on the line immediately, which resulted in a big swing. Then, six days before the game, the spread remained constant all the way until kickoff.
Here is what the subject of the article said:
"You've got whales [high-stakes gamblers] with seven- and eight-figure credit lines laying six figs on Denver. So the book has no choice but to push the line to three," he says. "Then like jackals circling around a piece of meat, the sharp guys jump on the +3. And poof, it disappears."
Exactly like I said; the big money bets early on a game. The line then moves, and the professional gamblers then jump on the spread when it is where they like it, which then of course, makes it move again. The pros absolutely don't wait until "four minutes" before kickoff. They jump on the spread once they get the number they like (many times in NFL, that is 3 points, since that is the most consistent difference in game finals).
Professional gamblers don't just use one book. They constantly monitor spreads at numerous books and jump when one of them switches to a number they like.
Yesterday morning, Marshall moved to being a favorite by 2.5. Last night, they moved down to being an underdog of 1.5, which is a 4 point swing back to where the line almost initially started.
I guess whatever "leaked info" was heard was leaked back the other way, right? In reality, heavy money (not necessarily a whale) was put on Miami (not the real one, the little one in Ohio) yesterday.
Washington State's line jumped two points yesterday. Another game (I think it was the MTSU vs. Vandy, but I'll have to check if that was the one) jumped 3 points a couple of days ago. There has been no info about suspensions, injuries, etc. in those games. It was simply a matter of big money coming down on one side or books trying to get more action on the game or more money on one side.
I guess whatever "leaked info" was heard was leaked back the other way, right? In reality, heavy money (not necessarily a whale) was put on Miami (not the real one, the little one in Ohio) yesterday.
Washington State's line jumped two points yesterday. Another game (I think it was the MTSU vs. Vandy, but I'll have to check if that was the one) jumped 3 points a couple of days ago. There has been no info about suspensions, injuries, etc. in those games. It was simply a matter of big money coming down on one side or books trying to get more action on the game or more money on one side.
It's a new, field turf surface. Rain is extremely negated for footing on those fields. Keep trying.
So, the first move in favor of Marshall that was the original point of this thread was because of a sunny forecast previously?
OH REALLY - RAIN NEGATED HUH? GET REAL.
YOU KNOW JUST ENOUGH TO GET YOUR BRAINS BEAT OUT.
BETTER KEEP YOUR MONEY IN YOUR POCKET.
GOOD WIN FOR THE HERD O LINE IS REALLY GOOD - KING BREAKS A
BIG RUN IN EVERY GAME IT SEEMS. I'D LOVE TO SEE WILLY JOHNSON
GET THE BALL IN SPACE - HE CAN REALLY SCOOT - HE AND KING ARE
GAME BREAKERS.
TYREE WAS HELD ON EVERY SINGLE PLAY, AND THEY STILL COULDNT
STOP HIM!!!!!
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Stop hiding from the question. So the first big move a week ago was because of a forecast of sunny weather, and the second big move was because of a forecast of rain?
And screenshot your plays from yesterday (even though you were exposed as being a liar the last time you did this for a season). I’d love to compare.
Take it anywhere but here! This thread is officially obsolete. Everyone take a step away from your keyboard or mobile device!
Good win. Go Herd!!!
Good win. Go Herd!!!
You should lock the thread, grandpa. Wait, you aren't a moderator, so you can't. Now, go take your Zocor and come back when visitor time is over at the retirement home.
You’re no spring chicken anymore, Ryan. I believe you are staring at 40, correct? That makes you middle-aged. How’s that coaching gig working out for you?
It's been far, far better than peddling auto insurance (or so I assume, since I've never had to do that). One of us has to work to survive. The other gets to pick-and-choose if he ever wants to work, where he wants to work, and gets paid to be involved in a game.
You've posted 38 times on Twitter in the last 24 hours. That isn't an exaggeration; you've really Tweeted 38 times within the last 24 hours, and that doesn't include your posts on here, your attempts trying way too hard to comment on my posts, etc.
At your age, you really should be more concerned with getting some exercise instead of caressing the ball sack of the guy in the White House by Tweeting about him incessantly.
You've posted 38 times on Twitter in the last 24 hours. That isn't an exaggeration; you've really Tweeted 38 times within the last 24 hours, and that doesn't include your posts on here, your attempts trying way too hard to comment on my posts, etc.
At your age, you really should be more concerned with getting some exercise instead of caressing the ball sack of the guy in the White House by Tweeting about him incessantly.
I believe this would be better suited for Pullman.....
So, not coaching? Free country......why are you stalking me on Twitter?
The last time somebody went crazy chasing me around on here and posting in every thread that I did, he went on a two day Twitter rampage where he repeatedly Tweeted about me a dozen times. I checked to see if your obsession with me led you to doing the same.
And why don't you stop telling moderators what to do? If they want it on Pullman, they will put it there. If they want "anywhere but here," they will make that happen. If they want a thread locked, they will do it. You continuing to post stupid sh!t telling them what to do isn't going to get your coveted moderator status that you aspire to have.
Back to the comment from Mr. ALL CAPS around if you're betting big money you'd wait right before the game. Explain that to me. If I see that Miami is favored and I disagree 100%, why would I wait until right before the game? Why wouldn't I grab the points if i'm an expert? It makes no logical sense.
I'm not a huge gambler but your post defies logic. Please explain
I'm not a huge gambler but your post defies logic. Please explain
Exactly. Hell, I posted paragraphs from professional gambling sites saying just that.
That's why you see the biggest movement within the first 24 hours after lines are set. Recreational gamblers don't sit around waiting for lines to be open and then immediately jump on them. That is what the professionals do - whales and wise guys who make large enough bets to move the line wait on lines to open and then jump them when they see one they like.
When lines were set yesterday, my friend immediately jumped on Maryland giving 14 points against Bowling Green. Maryland could win that game by 30. Within 12 hours, the line had already moved 1.5 points to 15.5. That line movement wasn't due to recreational gamblers wanting to make games more exciting on Saturday morning.
