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My election prediction

herdfan429

Platinum Buffalo
Feb 4, 2007
23,070
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For what it’s worth. Biden wins in convincing fashion both in popular vote and electoral college vote. I’m basing that on the number of Biden signs in and around Greenville SC
 
It will be close with the winner barely above 270 electoral votes

Biden is not going to win SC
 
I'm not sure yard signs are a good metric for evaluating who wins. This could be a difference in marketing strategies. More money was obviously dumped into the Dem's campaign for signs than in 2016. You're not going to see people put Trump signs in their yard unless they're dumb or just truly don't care. Trump signs may as well be a self advertisement for saying, "hey, come harass me about my political views."

There's also the comparison between crowd size at rallys. Biden can't seem to draw much interest, yet Trump continues to have YUGE crowds everywhere he goes. Still doesn't really mean anything, since we're talking about the entire country and not just pockets of people in specific areas. Same goes for yard signs.

My grandmother used to step outside the front door and see what her sidewalk looked like in the winters to gauge whether it was safe to make the big drive into Ceredo or Kenova for whichever store she needed to go. As a kid, I always tried telling her the personal sidewalk in front of her house was not a good indicator of how the streets would be, but she stuck to her guns with it.

I will definitely be voting for Trump, but I also definitely will not bother with placing a sign in my yard.
 
Just hang on boys. Go vote for trump and let the chips fall where they fall. You might just be surprised at what happens
 
Oh it's going to court so it won't be over in November. Thousands of NC votes are going to be deemed illegal. That is just one state.
 
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I'm not sure yard signs are a good metric for evaluating who wins. This could be a difference in marketing strategies. More money was obviously dumped into the Dem's campaign for signs than in 2016. You're not going to see people put Trump signs in their yard unless they're dumb or just truly don't care. Trump signs may as well be a self advertisement for saying, "hey, come harass me about my political views."

I very much disagree with this. From my personal observation in WV, Trump supporters are way more prominent in presentation of Trump support on their personal property. And I’m not talking about yard signs. I’m talking about ostentatious displays of Trump support. I see vehicles plastered with over the top Trump advertising. I haven't seen a single Biden display that comes close. Just a single yard sign or sticker here and there. Trump support is way more in your face.

Maybe this is different in other states. I agree that my observation is anecdotal, but I would be way more concerned about harassment or vandalism for displaying a Biden sign than a Trump one.
 
I'm not sure yard signs are a good metric for evaluating who wins. This could be a difference in marketing strategies. More money was obviously dumped into the Dem's campaign for signs than in 2016. You're not going to see people put Trump signs in their yard unless they're dumb or just truly don't care. Trump signs may as well be a self advertisement for saying, "hey, come harass me about my political views."

There's also the comparison between crowd size at rallys. Biden can't seem to draw much interest, yet Trump continues to have YUGE crowds everywhere he goes. Still doesn't really mean anything, since we're talking about the entire country and not just pockets of people in specific areas. Same goes for yard signs.

My grandmother used to step outside the front door and see what her sidewalk looked like in the winters to gauge whether it was safe to make the big drive into Ceredo or Kenova for whichever store she needed to go. As a kid, I always tried telling her the personal sidewalk in front of her house was not a good indicator of how the streets would be, but she stuck to her guns with it.

I will definitely be voting for Trump, but I also definitely will not bother with placing a sign in my yard.
Maybe you’re right in places like California and New York but in sc it’s not uncommon for people to tow their trump flags behind their truck. That still happens but the number of Biden supporters doing basically the same thing is night and day compared to Hillary in 2016
 
I live in NC and live in an area that Biden should carry. Still more Trump stuff. I literally just started seeing the biden signs maybe 2 weeks ago or so. More now, but it is a liberal area. or mixed at least. Leave the cities and go to rural areas and it is 90 plus percent Trump.

Folks, the Democrats have more money. Hillary out spent Trump and the Republicans.

This election will be close. Winner barely above 270 and there will be a legal battle.
 
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Yard signs were discussed this AM on Smerconish. According to the show, yard signs indicate voter enthusiasm, and Trump voters are more enthusiastic....but that doesn't mean they outnumber Biden voters. Below is a link to the segment.
 
Between the obvious over-sampling of Democrats in virtually every poll, coupled with the enormous new voter registration numbers that Republicans are enjoying in virtually every swing state, I still maintain that Trump will win and will win with a convincing electoral majority, much like 2016. Think about it....all he really needs to do is win the obvious states he will most likely win anyway and then Pennsylvania. Game over at that point. Wisconsin, Michigan, etc would just be gravy.
 
I very much disagree with this. From my personal observation in WV, Trump supporters are way more prominent in presentation of Trump support on their personal property. And I’m not talking about yard signs. I’m talking about ostentatious displays of Trump support. I see vehicles plastered with over the top Trump advertising. I haven't seen a single Biden display that comes close. Just a single yard sign or sticker here and there. Trump support is way more in your face.

Maybe this is different in other states. I agree that my observation is anecdotal, but I would be way more concerned about harassment or vandalism for displaying a Biden sign than a Trump one.


Yeah, definitely not the case in Central OH. You're comparing apples to sweaty gym socks.
 
For what it’s worth. Biden wins in convincing fashion both in popular vote and electoral college vote. I’m basing that on the number of Biden signs in and around Greenville SC
There is a professor at Stony Brook University that has over a 90% accuracy rate in predicting with his formula presidential elections. He has trump in a landslide. Google him for further information. Durham knows!
 
since we are using unscientific metrics in this discussion here is my take on the matter. I live in Athens county , one of the five blue counties in Ohio. If Satan was running on the democratic ticket they would vote for him over Jesus if he was running for the GOP. In spite of the attacks from the liberals I have seen more Trump signs in the county than Biden. To be honest the Biden signs that are out have only recently surfaced in the past couple weeks. IMO for our county that is significant. I am sure Biden will carry the county but expect a huge turnout from the GOP this year. This is my 7th election cycle here and have never witnessed such a high level of support for the GOP.
 
Mlblack’s comment is absurdly stupid. Even with a very popular Dem candidate, Dems don’t hold a politician to a god-like figure like deplorables have with Trump. And Trump even realizes it and admits it shown by his shooting on Fifth Ave comment years ago.

I’m guessing I travel more than anyone on here. In the last two weeks, I’ve been in Montana, Wyoming, Utah, Arizona (multiple times), Nevada (multiple times, where I currently am), and Idaho (multiple times). I’ve never seen a Biden flag flying from a car. I’ve seen dozens of Trump flags on trucks/cars.

I can’t remember seeing a single Biden shirt. I’ve seen dozens of Trump shirts.

In St. George, Utah on Wednesday night, there was a guy wearing a Trump 20/20 and thin blue like t-shirt getting into his pickup with a Trump and American flag. Last night in Fremont Street in Vegas, there was an old guy with a homemade Trump sign on each side of his wheelchair soliciting donations for himself. He had tons of people coming up and giving him money because of it. A block away, there was a booth allegedly accepting donations for a 9/11 fund. The guy running it had a big Trump sign on display and was wearing a first responder’s t-shirt . . . on the back of it was the word “Islam.” I wasn’t able to make out the rest, but I’m sure it was a disparaging comment. He also had a sign on the ground saying “If you think you’ve had a bad day, remember that Pelosi has a gynecologist.”

Anyone who has been to Fremont knows that it a shitshow of degenerates. It’s overwhelmingly Trump voters based on character, status,and geography.

In wealthy city areas, I see far more BLM and/or rainbow signs than Trump support or even specifically Biden signs. It isn’t because Dems aren’t in support of Biden. It’s because we don’t put politicians on a godlike pedestal like you deplorables have done with Trump.
 
Mlblack’s comment is absurdly stupid. Even with a very popular Dem candidate, Dems don’t hold a politician to a god-like figure like deplorables have with Trump. And Trump even realizes it and admits it shown by his shooting on Fifth Ave comment years ago.

I’m guessing I travel more than anyone on here. In the last two weeks, I’ve been in Montana, Wyoming, Utah, Arizona (multiple times), Nevada (multiple times, where I currently am), and Idaho (multiple times). I’ve never seen a Biden flag flying from a car. I’ve seen dozens of Trump flags on trucks/cars.

I can’t remember seeing a single Biden shirt. I’ve seen dozens of Trump shirts.

In St. George, Utah on Wednesday night, there was a guy wearing a Trump 20/20 and thin blue like t-shirt getting into his pickup with a Trump and American flag. Last night in Fremont Street in Vegas, there was an old guy with a homemade Trump sign on each side of his wheelchair soliciting donations for himself. He had tons of people coming up and giving him money because of it. A block away, there was a booth allegedly accepting donations for a 9/11 fund. The guy running it had a big Trump sign on display and was wearing a first responder’s t-shirt . . . on the back of it was the word “Islam.” I wasn’t able to make out the rest, but I’m sure it was a disparaging comment. He also had a sign on the ground saying “If you think you’ve had a bad day, remember that Pelosi has a gynecologist.”

Anyone who has been to Fremont knows that it a shitshow of degenerates. It’s overwhelmingly Trump voters based on character, status,and geography.

In wealthy city areas, I see far more BLM and/or rainbow signs than Trump support or even specifically Biden signs. It isn’t because Dems aren’t in support of Biden. It’s because we don’t put politicians on a godlike pedestal like you deplorables have done with Trump.
You clearly have no idea what you’re talking about. But it is fun to laugh at your post. Durham knows!
 
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Trump signs may as well be a self advertisement for saying, "hey, come harass me about my political views."

If that's the case, then plenty of people around here want some harassment.

In wealthy city areas, I see far more BLM and/or rainbow signs than Trump support or even specifically Biden signs.

This. I count BLM and rainbow flags as definite Biden voters.
 
Mlblack’s comment is absurdly stupid. Even with a very popular Dem candidate, Dems don’t hold a politician to a god-like figure like deplorables have with Trump. And Trump even realizes it and admits it shown by his shooting on Fifth Ave comment years ago.

I’m guessing I travel more than anyone on here. In the last two weeks, I’ve been in Montana, Wyoming, Utah, Arizona (multiple times), Nevada (multiple times, where I currently am), and Idaho (multiple times). I’ve never seen a Biden flag flying from a car. I’ve seen dozens of Trump flags on trucks/cars.

I can’t remember seeing a single Biden shirt. I’ve seen dozens of Trump shirts.

In St. George, Utah on Wednesday night, there was a guy wearing a Trump 20/20 and thin blue like t-shirt getting into his pickup with a Trump and American flag. Last night in Fremont Street in Vegas, there was an old guy with a homemade Trump sign on each side of his wheelchair soliciting donations for himself. He had tons of people coming up and giving him money because of it. A block away, there was a booth allegedly accepting donations for a 9/11 fund. The guy running it had a big Trump sign on display and was wearing a first responder’s t-shirt . . . on the back of it was the word “Islam.” I wasn’t able to make out the rest, but I’m sure it was a disparaging comment. He also had a sign on the ground saying “If you think you’ve had a bad day, remember that Pelosi has a gynecologist.”

Anyone who has been to Fremont knows that it a shitshow of degenerates. It’s overwhelmingly Trump voters based on character, status,and geography.

In wealthy city areas, I see far more BLM and/or rainbow signs than Trump support or even specifically Biden signs. It isn’t because Dems aren’t in support of Biden. It’s because we don’t put politicians on a godlike pedestal like you deplorables have done with Trump.
Are you serious with the first part of your comment???
I guess you missed all the Obama worship and magazine covers with his “halo”
 
Are you serious with the first part of your comment???
I guess you missed all the Obama worship and magazine covers with his “halo”

The Rifle we see today is just a shell of his former self. The dude has completely lost his mind due to TDS.
 
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If that's the case, then plenty of people around here want some harassment.

You don't live in a pussy ass liberal city, dipshit. Same thing goes to GK when I told him. You won't be able to do that shit where I am without the people you know and are supposedly friends with completely turning on you. That's just how liberals are, mentally deranged faggits. Every. Damn. One.
 
Mlblack’s comment is absurdly stupid. Even with a very popular Dem candidate, Dems don’t hold a politician to a god-like figure like deplorables have with Trump. And Trump even realizes it and admits it shown by his shooting on Fifth Ave comment years ago.

I’m guessing I travel more than anyone on here. In the last two weeks, I’ve been in Montana, Wyoming, Utah, Arizona (multiple times), Nevada (multiple times, where I currently am), and Idaho (multiple times). I’ve never seen a Biden flag flying from a car. I’ve seen dozens of Trump flags on trucks/cars.

I can’t remember seeing a single Biden shirt. I’ve seen dozens of Trump shirts.

In St. George, Utah on Wednesday night, there was a guy wearing a Trump 20/20 and thin blue like t-shirt getting into his pickup with a Trump and American flag. Last night in Fremont Street in Vegas, there was an old guy with a homemade Trump sign on each side of his wheelchair soliciting donations for himself. He had tons of people coming up and giving him money because of it. A block away, there was a booth allegedly accepting donations for a 9/11 fund. The guy running it had a big Trump sign on display and was wearing a first responder’s t-shirt . . . on the back of it was the word “Islam.” I wasn’t able to make out the rest, but I’m sure it was a disparaging comment. He also had a sign on the ground saying “If you think you’ve had a bad day, remember that Pelosi has a gynecologist.”

Anyone who has been to Fremont knows that it a shitshow of degenerates. It’s overwhelmingly Trump voters based on character, status,and geography.

In wealthy city areas, I see far more BLM and/or rainbow signs than Trump support or even specifically Biden signs. It isn’t because Dems aren’t in support of Biden. It’s because we don’t put politicians on a godlike pedestal like you deplorables have done with Trump.
I stopped after your first paragraph. Obama was treated like a God, an untouchable.
 
You don't live in a pussy ass liberal city, dipshit.

Where do you think I live?

I live two miles as the crow flies from downton Louisville. Mayor, US rep...Democrats. Mitch can't win his home county.

The three cities (technically where I live is a town) across the river from Louisville? One Democrat mayor, one Republican mayor, my town has a manager, no mayor. All three lean left on social issues, especially gay rights.
 
Mlblack’s comment is absurdly stupid. Even with a very popular Dem candidate, Dems don’t hold a politician to a god-like figure like deplorables have with Trump. And Trump even realizes it and admits it shown by his shooting on Fifth Ave comment years ago.

I’m guessing I travel more than anyone on here. In the last two weeks, I’ve been in Montana, Wyoming, Utah, Arizona (multiple times), Nevada (multiple times, where I currently am), and Idaho (multiple times). I’ve never seen a Biden flag flying from a car. I’ve seen dozens of Trump flags on trucks/cars.

I can’t remember seeing a single Biden shirt. I’ve seen dozens of Trump shirts.

In St. George, Utah on Wednesday night, there was a guy wearing a Trump 20/20 and thin blue like t-shirt getting into his pickup with a Trump and American flag. Last night in Fremont Street in Vegas, there was an old guy with a homemade Trump sign on each side of his wheelchair soliciting donations for himself. He had tons of people coming up and giving him money because of it. A block away, there was a booth allegedly accepting donations for a 9/11 fund. The guy running it had a big Trump sign on display and was wearing a first responder’s t-shirt . . . on the back of it was the word “Islam.” I wasn’t able to make out the rest, but I’m sure it was a disparaging comment. He also had a sign on the ground saying “If you think you’ve had a bad day, remember that Pelosi has a gynecologist.”

Anyone who has been to Fremont knows that it a shitshow of degenerates. It’s overwhelmingly Trump voters based on character, status,and geography.

In wealthy city areas, I see far more BLM and/or rainbow signs than Trump support or even specifically Biden signs. It isn’t because Dems aren’t in support of Biden. It’s because we don’t put politicians on a godlike pedestal like you deplorables have done with Trump.
Mlblack’s comment is absurdly stupid. Even with a very popular Dem candidate, Dems don’t hold a politician to a god-like figure like deplorables have with Trump. And Trump even realizes it and admits it shown by his shooting on Fifth Ave comment years ago.

I’m guessing I travel more than anyone on here. In the last two weeks, I’ve been in Montana, Wyoming, Utah, Arizona (multiple times), Nevada (multiple times, where I currently am), and Idaho (multiple times). I’ve never seen a Biden flag flying from a car. I’ve seen dozens of Trump flags on trucks/cars.

I can’t remember seeing a single Biden shirt. I’ve seen dozens of Trump shirts.

In St. George, Utah on Wednesday night, there was a guy wearing a Trump 20/20 and thin blue like t-shirt getting into his pickup with a Trump and American flag. Last night in Fremont Street in Vegas, there was an old guy with a homemade Trump sign on each side of his wheelchair soliciting donations for himself. He had tons of people coming up and giving him money because of it. A block away, there was a booth allegedly accepting donations for a 9/11 fund. The guy running it had a big Trump sign on display and was wearing a first responder’s t-shirt . . . on the back of it was the word “Islam.” I wasn’t able to make out the rest, but I’m sure it was a disparaging comment. He also had a sign on the ground saying “If you think you’ve had a bad day, remember that Pelosi has a gynecologist.”

Anyone who has been to Fremont knows that it a shitshow of degenerates. It’s overwhelmingly Trump voters based on character, status,and geography.

In wealthy city areas, I see far more BLM and/or rainbow signs than Trump support or even specifically Biden signs. It isn’t because Dems aren’t in support of Biden. It’s because we don’t put politicians on a godlike pedestal like you deplorables have done with Trump.
You do everything more (and better) than anyone else on this message board. You've told us so time and time again.
 
Between the obvious over-sampling of Democrats in virtually every poll, coupled with the enormous new voter registration numbers that Republicans are enjoying in virtually every swing state, I still maintain that Trump will win and will win with a convincing electoral majority, much like 2016. Think about it....all he really needs to do is win the obvious states he will most likely win anyway and then Pennsylvania. Game over at that point. Wisconsin, Michigan, etc would just be gravy.
i agree to an extent. I don't think he needs PA, though. I think he'll win the swing states of AZ, GA, NC, OH, MI, MN, and WI. PA would be the cherry on top. And, it could get even worse for "vote blue". Oregon could be close; New Hampshire, Maine, New Mexico, all are close and could very well go red.

at the end of the day, I think Americans are more tired of the bullshit the left has conjured up over the past 3.5 years than how the president hurts their feelings. the lawlessness, riots, crying over fake russia stories, impeachment hoax, and other mentally deranged leftist contrived bullshit has more people than not at their wits end with the democratic party. the far left is sinking them, and while biden appears to be making a feeble attempt to separate his leadership from the hard core left, i think it's too much for his prompt reading, stuttering, decrepit old ass to overcome, especially when he and his idiot running mate have made statements supporting some of the radical left's positions in the past and are now attempting an about-face on some of those issues.
 
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i agree to an extent. I don't think he needs PA, though. I think he'll win the swing states of AZ, GA, NC, OH, MI, MN, and WI. PA would be the cherry on top. And, it could get even worse for "vote blue". Oregon could be close; New Hampshire, Maine, New Mexico, all are close and could very well go red.

at the end of the day, I think Americans are more tired of the bullshit the left has conjured up over the past 3.5 years than how the president hurts their feelings. the lawlessness, riots, crying over fake russia stories, impeachment hoax, and other mentally deranged leftist contrived bullshit has more people than not at their wits end with the democratic party. the far left is sinking them, and while biden appears to be making a feeble attempt to separate his leadership from the hard core left, i think it's too much for his prompt reading, stuttering, decrepit old ass to overcome, especially when he and his idiot running mate have made statements supporting some of the radical left's positions in the past and are now attempting an about-face on some of those issues.

Trump could lose Michigan and Pennsylvania and still win, assuming he wins the rest of the states he won in 2016. He has a lot of wiggle room.
 
Trump could lose Michigan and Pennsylvania and still win, assuming he wins the rest of the states he won in 2016. He has a lot of wiggle room.

I believe he has ALMOST zero wiggle room. And that will be the issue for Republican presidential candidates for at least the next half century.
 
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^^^^^big glass of kool aid
thanks for yet another well thought out and thought provoking post.

all of those will be closer than 2016. trump will likely carry NH, and possibly one or more of the other three. wait and see.
 
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