Party Affiliation Changes - Independents Growing

[SamSwimmer]

New Gallup Poll - Republicans hold slight edge as dem numbers go down

It's ain't looking great for either of the two main parties (both at 27%) but if you look at the trend lines, one party has held steady while the other (dem) is seeing a decline.

All Gallup survey respondents who identify as independents are then asked whether they lean more toward the Republican Party or the Democratic Party. Last year, slightly more independents leaned Republican than leaned Democratic. As a result, a combined 45% of U.S. adults identify as Republicans or lean toward the GOP, while 43% are Democrats or Democratic leaners.​

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The 2023 figures are similar to those from 2022, when Republicans had a one-point advantage (45% to 44%). Republican advantages have been rare since Gallup first began measuring independent political leanings on a regular basis in 1991. In fact, 2023 is just the third time Republicans have had even a slight edge, along with 1991 and 2022.​

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Also from the article:

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Implications​

As 2024 begins, the parties are closely matched based on political party identification and leanings. However, Democrats are clearly in a weaker position than they have been in any recent election year. This is based on the new low percentage of U.S. adults identifying as Democrats, as well as the Republican advantage in leaned party identification. In the past four presidential election years, Democrats had at least a five-point advantage in leaned party identification. They won the popular vote each of those years, though Republican Donald Trump won the 2016 election based on the Electoral College vote.​

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This presidential election year is likely to see a drop in the percentage of political independents, as has occurred in six of the past seven presidential election years (all but 2012), amid intense focus on national politics and the two major parties. Still, even with a slight election-year drop -- which has ranged from two to five points -- independents will remain the largest, and arguably most persuadable, group of voters. In what is expected to be a close election contest, it is critical for each party, but especially Democrats, to nominate a candidate who can appeal to independent voters.​

 

[GeauxHerd]

The issue on democrats side is people are leaving because they aren’t liberal enough. A lot of Libs (like greed) are full on maoists and view the main stream democrats as to conservative and not executing social changes fast enough. Those people are also retarded.

 

[TwolfHerdfan]

Moderate is a dirty word these days.

 

[extragreen]

The issue on democrats side is people are leaving because they aren’t liberal enough. A lot of Libs (like greed) are full on maoists and view the main stream democrats as to conservative and not executing social changes fast enough. Those people are also retarded.

 

[SamSwimmer]

Moderate is a dirty word these days.

Anything other than liberal TikTok groupthink & you’re considered a MAGA extremest. During the last election, I was dating a younger Asian chic - very liberal, as were her friends. When I told them I was voting third party, they acted as if it was somehow even worse than voting for Trump

 

[Bobbybbc]

The issue on democrats side is people are leaving because they aren’t liberal enough. A lot of Libs (like greed) are full on maoists and view the main stream democrats as to conservative and not executing social changes fast enough. Those people are also retarded.

Very few Democrats are maoists or communists. Do you even know what those terms mean?