Phile Steele has Spoken

[BleedsGreen33]

Marshall #2 in the East.
--Marshall's poor finish in 2016 will have them undervalued in most sets of my Power Ratings, including my Plus/Minus Ratings on page 34 which mostly resemble the Vegas rankings. My main set of of Power Ratings call for Marshall to be at the top of CUSA. I love taking team's that had 10, 13, and 10 wins the previous 3 years and drop down to t3, especially iwht the infusion of Power 5 VHT's on the defensive side of the ball and a veteran offense. Marshall was 14-3 in CUSA in '14 and '15. The Thundering Herd host that key game against WKU on November 11. Even though they were -117.3 ypg in conf play, I will call for them to finish in a much inproved year. In'13 I called Marshall the Most Improved Team in the country and they went from 5 to 10 wins...will they get the same billing this year? (See Most Improved List)

Chase Litton 3rd Team
Tyre Brady 3rd Team
Ryan Yurachek 1st Team
Levi Brown 4th Team
Ryan Bee 3rd Team
Juwon Young 2nd Team
Rodney Allen 2nd Team
Kendall Gant 2nd Team
Keion Davis 3rd Team (KR)


Marshall Ranks #1 in CUSA overall in his Unit Ranking
QB 3rd
RB 9th
WR th
OL 8th
DL 2nd
LB 1st
DB 1st
ST 3rd
CH 1st (I am assuming this is coach based off other writings)

Phil's Forecast
Offense - In QB Rakeem Cat's fist year they ran a conservative offense and averaged just 21.8ppg. With and experienced CAto at the helm they averaged 40.9, 42.1 and 45.6! In '15 they had a first year QB and dropped to 31.3ppg. I thought with and experienced Litton they would improved but they dropped to 26.4 ppg and 350 ypg (lowest 5Y). This year 6 starters return and with the added speed at WR they should be more potent.

Defense - Marshall had to replace the CUSA DPOY a 2nd straight year in '16. Their '15 defense was #10- FBS in ppg allowed (17.8 best here s/'99). They did only hold foes to 10 7pg below their season average (#60) taking on a light schedule. They only had 4 returning starters but 8 of their top 13 tacklers were back in '16. The ppg amazingly doubled (35.3) and their 455 ypg was their worst s/'12. This year 7 starters return and they get some big time VHT trasnfers and will more resemble the '15 defense.

2017 - Marshall has off 3 straight DD win seasons and were 20-1 in the last 3+ years at home. Their schedule went from #127 in '15 to #98 in '16 but it was still shocking they dropped to 3-9 and from +47 ypg in CUSA play to -117. This year factors pointing up are that Marshall rates +8.5 in my SMI (stock market indicator), they were -3 net upsets in '19 (up 66%). They have numerous Power 5 VHT's on defense and will be tough like the '14 and '15 units with my #2 DL, #1 LB's and #1 DB's in CUSA. In 2013 this team was my #1 Most Improved team in the country and went from 5 to 10 wins and the team is capable of a +5 jump in the win total.


Rates Ryan Yurachek as the #31 TE in the country.

Rates Marshall as the #43 DL in the country.

Rates Marshall as the #44 DB unit in the country.

Rates Marshall as the #55 Special Teams in the country.

Rates Marshall's schedule as #102 in the country.

Rates Marshall's schedule as #106 in Opponents Winning %.

Rates Marshall returning experience as #61 overall and #5 in CUSA.

Stock Market Indicator
Bull Market - +8.5
This means we won 8.5 less games in 2016 than our previous two years averaged. That places us as a nearly 100% chance of improving our record significantly according to is analysis.

Ranks us as the #5 most improved team behind #1 ND, #2 TC, #3 Oregon, and #4 Texas.

Ranks us #84 in his Power Poll.

2017 Projected Units
#7 Most Improved Defensive Rush
#2 Most Improved Defensive Points


2017 Project Stats
Rushing Offense - 123.3
Passing Offense - 269.3
Scoring Offense - 27.2
Rushing Defense - 147.3
Pass Defense - 232.8
Scoring Defense - 27.7
YP Diff +12.6 (67)
PPG Diff -0.4


Has us finishing as the #54 team in the country.

Projects us going to the Cure Bowl vs South Alabama on Saturday, December 16th.

 

[BleedsGreen33]

I suggest everyone go out and grab a copy. Especially to better understand his Bull Market indicator. The way I understood it is that you take the previous two years ('14 & '15) win totals and add them together then average them. Which gives us 11.5. Then you subtract last year's wins from that average giving us +8.5. He said going back to 1990 doing this he found only 3 instances of teams with a +6 or great BMI did not improve their record.

 

[herdfan429]

The cure bowl?!?!? Dear lord there are to many damn bowl games

 

[TwolfHerdfan]

Where is the Cure Bowl and when is it?

 

[ohio herd]

Marshall #2 in the East.
--Marshall's poor finish in 2016 will have them undervalued in most sets of my Power Ratings, including my Plus/Minus Ratings on page 34 which mostly resemble the Vegas rankings. My main set of of Power Ratings call for Marshall to be at the top of CUSA. I love taking team's that had 10, 13, and 10 wins the previous 3 years and drop down to t3, especially iwht the infusion of Power 5 VHT's on the defensive side of the ball and a veteran offense. Marshall was 14-3 in CUSA in '14 and '15. The Thundering Herd host that key game against WKU on November 11. Even though they were -117.3 ypg in conf play, I will call for them to finish in a much inproved year. In'13 I called Marshall the Most Improved Team in the country and they went from 5 to 10 wins...will they get the same billing this year? (See Most Improved List)

Chase Litton 3rd Team
Tyre Brady 3rd Team
Ryan Yurachek 1st Team
Levi Brown 4th Team
Ryan Bee 3rd Team
Juwon Young 2nd Team
Rodney Allen 2nd Team
Kendall Gant 2nd Team
Keion Davis 3rd Team (KR)


Marshall Ranks #1 in CUSA overall in his Unit Ranking
QB 3rd
RB 9th
WR th
OL 8th
DL 2nd
LB 1st
DB 1st
ST 3rd
CH 1st (I am assuming this is coach based off other writings)

Phil's Forecast
Offense - In QB Rakeem Cat's fist year they ran a conservative offense and averaged just 21.8ppg. With and experienced CAto at the helm they averaged 40.9, 42.1 and 45.6! In '15 they had a first year QB and dropped to 31.3ppg. I thought with and experienced Litton they would improved but they dropped to 26.4 ppg and 350 ypg (lowest 5Y). This year 6 starters return and with the added speed at WR they should be more potent.

Defense - Marshall had to replace the CUSA DPOY a 2nd straight year in '16. Their '15 defense was #10- FBS in ppg allowed (17.8 best here s/'99). They did only hold foes to 10 7pg below their season average (#60) taking on a light schedule. They only had 4 returning starters but 8 of their top 13 tacklers were back in '16. The ppg amazingly doubled (35.3) and their 455 ypg was their worst s/'12. This year 7 starters return and they get some big time VHT trasnfers and will more resemble the '15 defense.

2017 - Marshall has off 3 straight DD win seasons and were 20-1 in the last 3+ years at home. Their schedule went from #127 in '15 to #98 in '16 but it was still shocking they dropped to 3-9 and from +47 ypg in CUSA play to -117. This year factors pointing up are that Marshall rates +8.5 in my SMI (stock market indicator), they were -3 net upsets in '19 (up 66%). They have numerous Power 5 VHT's on defense and will be tough like the '14 and '15 units with my #2 DL, #1 LB's and #1 DB's in CUSA. In 2013 this team was my #1 Most Improved team in the country and went from 5 to 10 wins and the team is capable of a +5 jump in the win total.


Rates Ryan Yurachek as the #31 TE in the country.

Rates Marshall as the #43 DL in the country.

Rates Marshall as the #44 DB unit in the country.

Rates Marshall as the #55 Special Teams in the country.

Rates Marshall's schedule as #102 in the country.

Rates Marshall's schedule as #106 in Opponents Winning %.

Rates Marshall returning experience as #61 overall and #5 in CUSA.

Stock Market Indicator
Bull Market - +8.5
This means we won 8.5 less games in 2016 than our previous two years averaged. That places us as a nearly 100% chance of improving our record significantly according to is analysis.

Ranks us as the #5 most improved team behind #1 ND, #2 TC, #3 Oregon, and #4 Texas.

Ranks us #84 in his Power Poll.

2017 Projected Units
#7 Most Improved Defensive Rush
#2 Most Improved Defensive Points


2017 Project Stats
Rushing Offense - 123.3
Passing Offense - 269.3
Scoring Offense - 27.2
Rushing Defense - 147.3
Pass Defense - 232.8
Scoring Defense - 27.7
YP Diff +12.6 (67)
PPG Diff -0.4


Has us finishing as the #54 team in the country.

Projects us going to the Cure Bowl vs South Alabama on Saturday, December 16th.

I will take this especially considering the source!!!

 

[Y.A.G Si Ye Nots]

I will take this especially considering the source!!!

You should look into that source. Steele is a hype machine who manipulates and drastically misleads with his claims.

He has numerous rankings/ratings. For instance, one of his systems may claim that Marshall finishes 2nd in the east. Then, he has a separate one which calls for Marshall to only win two more games than last year. That's a pretty big gap. If one of those comes close to happening (which one of them is almost assured to come close to happening), Steele will boast that he got it right in next year's magazine.

For instance, if Marshall finishes 1st - 3rd in the division, Steele will claim that he predicted them to finish 2nd, which is either exactly correct or one spot away even though no other publications made that prediction. However, if Marshall wins 4-6 games, like another rating suggests they will according to his numerous predictions, Steele will then claim that he predicted it almost exactly right.

If you truly read his magazine, check out how many rankings he has. You have to hone in on them, but he mentions some of them many times from cover to cover. He then takes the one that was closest to predicting what really happened and boasts about it in the following year's publication.

 

[ohio herd]

You should look into that source. Steele is a hype machine who manipulates and drastically misleads with his claims.

He has numerous rankings/ratings. For instance, one of his systems may claim that Marshall finishes 2nd in the east. Then, he has a separate one which calls for Marshall to only win two more games than last year. That's a pretty big gap. If one of those comes close to happening (which one of them is almost assured to come close to happening), Steele will boast that he got it right in next year's magazine.

For instance, if Marshall finishes 1st - 3rd in the division, Steele will claim that he predicted them to finish 2nd, which is either exactly correct or one spot away even though no other publications made that prediction. However, if Marshall wins 4-6 games, like another rating suggests they will according to his numerous predictions, Steele will then claim that he predicted it almost exactly right.

If you truly read his magazine, check out how many rankings he has. You have to hone in on them, but he mentions some of them many times from cover to cover. He then takes the one that was closest to predicting what really happened and boasts about it in the following year's publication.

with all due respect I have found that over the years he has been the best at predicting where we were going to end up. So I will will stick to my previous statement.

 

[TheGreenhouseEffect]

Fantastic article and very encouraging, Phil Steele has been the most accurate predictor of Marshall football in the last 5 year and nailed us as most improved a few years back and indeed we were. To have us at #5 most improved behind those P5s is very encouraging.

Adds to the intrigue of the season even more, with the RedHawks of 66-6 fame opener becoming even more of a toss up.

I really respect Phil Steele more than any other mag prognosticator out there. He does his research and with his porn star name he delivers the goods!

Getting fired up now as we roll into the 4th and the official beginning of the college football season , the talk shows!

 

[HerdFan73]

Anybody else not excited with NOT winning the east again ?

 

[AllEers6]

Marshall #2 in the East.
--Marshall's poor finish in 2016 will have them undervalued in most sets of my Power Ratings, including my Plus/Minus Ratings on page 34 which mostly resemble the Vegas rankings. My main set of of Power Ratings call for Marshall to be at the top of CUSA. I love taking team's that had 10, 13, and 10 wins the previous 3 years and drop down to t3, especially iwht the infusion of Power 5 VHT's on the defensive side of the ball and a veteran offense. Marshall was 14-3 in CUSA in '14 and '15. The Thundering Herd host that key game against WKU on November 11. Even though they were -117.3 ypg in conf play, I will call for them to finish in a much inproved year. In'13 I called Marshall the Most Improved Team in the country and they went from 5 to 10 wins...will they get the same billing this year? (See Most Improved List)

Chase Litton 3rd Team
Tyre Brady 3rd Team
Ryan Yurachek 1st Team
Levi Brown 4th Team
Ryan Bee 3rd Team
Juwon Young 2nd Team
Rodney Allen 2nd Team
Kendall Gant 2nd Team
Keion Davis 3rd Team (KR)


Marshall Ranks #1 in CUSA overall in his Unit Ranking
QB 3rd
RB 9th
WR th
OL 8th
DL 2nd
LB 1st
DB 1st
ST 3rd
CH 1st (I am assuming this is coach based off other writings)

Phil's Forecast
Offense - In QB Rakeem Cat's fist year they ran a conservative offense and averaged just 21.8ppg. With and experienced CAto at the helm they averaged 40.9, 42.1 and 45.6! In '15 they had a first year QB and dropped to 31.3ppg. I thought with and experienced Litton they would improved but they dropped to 26.4 ppg and 350 ypg (lowest 5Y). This year 6 starters return and with the added speed at WR they should be more potent.

Defense - Marshall had to replace the CUSA DPOY a 2nd straight year in '16. Their '15 defense was #10- FBS in ppg allowed (17.8 best here s/'99). They did only hold foes to 10 7pg below their season average (#60) taking on a light schedule. They only had 4 returning starters but 8 of their top 13 tacklers were back in '16. The ppg amazingly doubled (35.3) and their 455 ypg was their worst s/'12. This year 7 starters return and they get some big time VHT trasnfers and will more resemble the '15 defense.

2017 - Marshall has off 3 straight DD win seasons and were 20-1 in the last 3+ years at home. Their schedule went from #127 in '15 to #98 in '16 but it was still shocking they dropped to 3-9 and from +47 ypg in CUSA play to -117. This year factors pointing up are that Marshall rates +8.5 in my SMI (stock market indicator), they were -3 net upsets in '19 (up 66%). They have numerous Power 5 VHT's on defense and will be tough like the '14 and '15 units with my #2 DL, #1 LB's and #1 DB's in CUSA. In 2013 this team was my #1 Most Improved team in the country and went from 5 to 10 wins and the team is capable of a +5 jump in the win total.


Rates Ryan Yurachek as the #31 TE in the country.

Rates Marshall as the #43 DL in the country.

Rates Marshall as the #44 DB unit in the country.

Rates Marshall as the #55 Special Teams in the country.

Rates Marshall's schedule as #102 in the country.

Rates Marshall's schedule as #106 in Opponents Winning %.

Rates Marshall returning experience as #61 overall and #5 in CUSA.

Stock Market Indicator
Bull Market - +8.5
This means we won 8.5 less games in 2016 than our previous two years averaged. That places us as a nearly 100% chance of improving our record significantly according to is analysis.

Ranks us as the #5 most improved team behind #1 ND, #2 TC, #3 Oregon, and #4 Texas.

Ranks us #84 in his Power Poll.

2017 Projected Units
#7 Most Improved Defensive Rush
#2 Most Improved Defensive Points


2017 Project Stats
Rushing Offense - 123.3
Passing Offense - 269.3
Scoring Offense - 27.2
Rushing Defense - 147.3
Pass Defense - 232.8
Scoring Defense - 27.7
YP Diff +12.6 (67)
PPG Diff -0.4


Has us finishing as the #54 team in the country.

Projects us going to the Cure Bowl vs South Alabama on Saturday, December 16th.

This all comes down to does Litton have his act together or not. I still hear stories of just how crazy that guy got last year.

 

[The Real SamC]

Where is the Cure Bowl and when is it?

The AutoNation Cure Bowl is in Orlando on December 16, one of the earliest and thus lowest bowls. It is on CBSSN. It has a tie in with THE AMERICAN!!!!!!! and the Mountain West, so PS is projecting one of those leagues being short of 6 win teams.

PS' book is very different from the other preview mags. He usually knows his stuff, but it is like learning a new language trying to understand all of his metrics.

 

[sluggo72]

This all comes down to does Litton have his act together or not. I still hear stories of just how crazy that guy got last year.

Yup! We go as far as chase Litton takes us !!

 

[pdbailey]

This all comes down to does Litton have his act together or not. I still hear stories of just how crazy that guy got last year.

The team has a lot of talent on paper, much more than the 2016 team, so if they execute better on offense and defense we could have a much better year. Our 3rd down performance on both sides of the ball was the key reason we went 3-9 so a solid improvement in that area is a must. If Litton performs well then we will certainly improve in this area on offense, and I suspect that now having an experienced defensive unit will improve that side of the ball as well. People also forget that we lost 39 scholarship players from the 2015 team due to graduation and attrition, which is an unbelievable number of players, and is the main reason our depth was so young in 2016. I'm cautiously optimistic and hoping for 8+ wins in 2017.

 

[oldeherd]

Where is the Cure Bowl and when is it?

Well, let's hope that from its name it helps "cure" whatever in the hell plagued Herd football in 2016!!!!!

 

[Treadmill MUsic]

What did Phil Steele project last year around this time?

 

[TwolfHerdfan]

What did Phil Steele project last year around this time?

I would guess a second place finish behind WKU.

 

[Y.A.G Si Ye Nots]

I would guess a second place finish behind WKU.

He predicted Marshall to finish in first last year.

He did not get a single team correct in either division last year.

Sagarin's prediction from last year is in parentheses:

1) WKU (tied for 2)
2) ODU (5)
3) MTSU (tied for 2)
4) FIU (tied for 6)
5) Charlotte (tied for 6)
6) FAU (4)
7) Marshall (1)

1) LT (3)
2) UTSA (5)
3) USM (1)
4) UNT (6)
5) Rice (tied for 2)
6) UTEP (tied for 2)

As you can see, he was awful in his predictions for C-USA. This isn't an anomaly. His magazine gives a lot more info than the other publications, but his predictions aren't good. However, each year, he will claim that his predictions are so much better than the other major publications. But he manipulates his words/predictions when doing it.

For instance, the rankings above are what he puts out. Yet, in the magazine and his online weekly mailer, he has other predictions. His magazine has approximately ten different power ratings. So, if one of his power ratings predicted Marshall to finish in 6th last season, he will tout how he was the only publication to predict Marshall to have an awful season (in reality, 9 of his 10 power ratings would call for Marshall to win the East, yet he will then only mention the one that didn't in order to seem more accurate).

Years ago, I spent way too much time watching, studying, and betting on college football. I was really good; turning an initial $400 into $38,100 one season. On the old smack board, I posted predictions in a thread one week. I was right on 13 of 15 games (picking spread, not moneyline) and 17 of 20 when I kept going in the games during the week after that weekend. Of course I wasn't always that good, but it just happened to work out that way when @30CAT challenged me to back up my claims.

In my obsession, I would get copies of every publication I could find and study them. That is how I caught onto Steele's ploy. He provides a lot of info, but is a salesman. He has some con-man in him.

If anyone wants, pick another conference from last season, and I will post how Steele did.

 

[ohio herd]

He predicted Marshall to finish in first last year.

He did not get a single team correct in either division last year.

Sagarin's prediction from last year is in parentheses:

1) WKU (tied for 2)
2) ODU (5)
3) MTSU (tied for 2)
4) FIU (tied for 6)
5) Charlotte (tied for 6)
6) FAU (4)
7) Marshall (1)

1) LT (3)
2) UTSA (5)
3) USM (1)
4) UNT (6)
5) Rice (tied for 2)
6) UTEP (tied for 2)

As you can see, he was awful in his predictions for C-USA. This isn't an anomaly. His magazine gives a lot more info than the other publications, but his predictions aren't good. However, each year, he will claim that his predictions are so much better than the other major publications. But he manipulates his words/predictions when doing it.

For instance, the rankings above are what he puts out. Yet, in the magazine and his online weekly mailer, he has other predictions. His magazine has approximately ten different power ratings. So, if one of his power ratings predicted Marshall to finish in 6th last season, he will tout how he was the only publication to predict Marshall to have an awful season (in reality, 9 of his 10 power ratings would call for Marshall to win the East, yet he will then only mention the one that didn't in order to seem more accurate).

Years ago, I spent way too much time watching, studying, and betting on college football. I was really good; turning an initial $400 into $38,100 one season. On the old smack board, I posted predictions in a thread one week. I was right on 13 of 15 games (picking spread, not moneyline) and 17 of 20 when I kept going in the games during the week after that weekend. Of course I wasn't always that good, but it just happened to work out that way when @30CAT challenged me to back up my claims.

In my obsession, I would get copies of every publication I could find and study them. That is how I caught onto Steele's ploy. He provides a lot of info, but is a salesman. He has some con-man in him.

If anyone wants, pick another conference from last season, and I will post how Steele did.

On a serious note. Based on all that where do you see us this year?

 

[Y.A.G Si Ye Nots]

On a serious note. Based on all that where do you see us this year?

I haven't watched enough to have much of a valid opinion.

 

[19MU88]

I haven't watched enough to have much of a valid opinion.

Now that's something you don't hear often

 

[UBeenThunderStruck]

9-3 Losses to NC St, FAU, UTSA