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Raoul: resident storm chaser

GK4Herd

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Aug 5, 2001
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What's your take on Florence? I figured that heading to SC this weekend would be the ultimate win/win for you. If the storm turns north you can watch the Herd. If not you can watch the storm.
 
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She really blew up today, didn't she? Wait until it hits the Gulf Stream. My take is high end Cat 4. I'm also concerned about a Hugo-type storm surge, because of the extent of the continental shelf off the Carolinas really lets a hurricane push a LOT of water. I don't think I want to fvck with that lol.

A high-pressure ridge is forming in the Atlantic to the north, that should keep her from turning.

I am really worried about a major flood danger for VA and the WV Alleghenies. Keep in mind orographic lift effect over the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. And the ground there is already super-saturated.
 
She really blew up today, didn't she? Wait until it hits the Gulf Stream. My take is high end Cat 4. I'm also concerned about a Hugo-type storm surge, because of the extent of the continental shelf off the Carolinas really lets a hurricane push a LOT of water. I don't think I want to fvck with that lol.

A high-pressure ridge is forming in the Atlantic to the north, that should keep her from turning.

I am really worried about a major flood danger for VA and the WV Alleghenies. Keep in mind orographic lift effect over the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. And the ground there is already super-saturated.
yes, ground is super saturated, river's already up, and i keep hearing from locals the weather pundits are calling for 10 to 15 inches of rain over the next few days. for comparison, the 1985 flood was a result of i'm thinking around 13 to 14 inches of rain. weather.gov shows less than an inch of rain total through saturday, so not sure where they're getting their numbers or what i'm missing. i hope weather.gov is correct . . .

some of the local business are evacuating everything from their stores even though there's a levy in place that wasn't there in 1985.
 
yes, ground is super saturated, river's already up, and i keep hearing from locals the weather pundits are calling for 10 to 15 inches of rain over the next few days. for comparison, the 1985 flood was a result of i'm thinking around 13 to 14 inches of rain. weather.gov shows less than an inch of rain total through saturday, so not sure where they're getting their numbers or what i'm missing. i hope weather.gov is correct . . .

some of the local business are evacuating everything from their stores even though there's a levy in place that wasn't there in 1985.

There is still a LOT of variation in the models after landfall. And the latest EURO has a shift to the south.

FWIW, here is a rainfall map from 1985...

Nov_85_Mid-Atlantic_flooding_map.png
 
I own and am responsible for several properties in the effected area. I am monitoring in closely. Reality is this will be devastating to NC and SC and areas of VA. This is a very large and devastating storm. Very unpredictable. Also, flooding in other states as the rains come.

Football games are the least of my concern right now. Lots of work going on right now.

This storm is very dangerous. If you are planning on going to Columbia watch closely. It is not just whether it goes to Columbia. You have to get there and you have to go through NC(coming from WV). This storm will still be in NC/SC and inland on Saturday. In addition the states resources are limited and working on other things. Just watch closely and see if it is a go.

This a very fluid and unpredictable situation. Put it this way I have seen some of the models and they are unfathomable.
 
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