Stolen from another board ought 3's Herd 16s prognostication

[TheGreenhouseEffect]

So, I have to post this, blatantly stolen from another board because I've been watching this guys predictions for quite a few seasons and quite frankly he's usually really good. Sadly , or rather, in reality I agree with 7-5 to 8-4. We just aren't that good to win CUSA. Too young at too many key positions and no D Reeves to bail us out with a huge play. Still a decent season for a young Soph QB and team that shows they will fight to the bitter end if nothing else.

From Ought 3s own words starting below....


40 days before "The Joan" roars to life, your humble nerd has surfaced once again from the Nerdery to present another installment of crunched numbers. These projections are based on how much better or worse a team might be, given their loss of starters and key contributors as well as changes in conference and OOC schedule. That drives their offensive and defensive stats up or down. Each team plays a game against "Median U" who represents the most perfectly middling college imaginable. A team's score +/- is based on how they would fare in a neutral location against the Median team.

Headline: "Southern Miss and WKU Top Their Divisions; Herd Tied for 2nd With MTSU"
Team RTG Div.
Western Kentucky -2 E
Middle Tenn. -5 E
Marshall -6 E
Fla. Atlantic -9 E
FIU -9 E
Old Dominion -10 E
Charlotte -13 E

Southern Miss. -3 W
UTSA -5 W
Louisiana Tech -6 W
UTEP -7 W
Rice -9 W
North Texas -11 W

You can see that the raw data technically has MU 3rd, but this formula does not take venue into account, and the Blue Raiders visit Huntington on 11/12, so it could very well go MU's way. That same logic does not hold for WKU, who will likely come to Huntington favored.


Headline: "MU Record May Hinge on One Game"
Opp Rtg Ven Res
Morgan St. x H WIN
Akron -7 H WIN
Louisville 2 H LOSS
Pittsburgh -4 A LOSS
North Texas -11 A WIN
FAU -9 H WIN
Charlotte -13 H WIN
Southern Miss. -3 A LOSS
Old Dominion -10 A WIN
MTSU -5 H ***
FIU -9 A WIN
WKU -2 H LOSS

Based on this, the MTSU game will determine whether the Herd has a 7-5 or 8-4 regular season record - barring any upsets either way. I'd sure like to see Pitt come to Huntington instead of us go there.

Superlatives:
Most Over-Valued: Rice Owls
The Owls will be lucky to make bowl eligibility much less challenge for the West title. They open at WKU and then two weeks later have to host Baylor. I don't care what kind of home-field adv they have, it won't be enough. Road trips to Louisiana Tech and Stanford also loom large. Yes, they have a lot of starters back, but they are breaking in a new QB who is built like Chase Litton, but that's about where the similarities end.

On The Move: UTSA Roadrunners
I have a feeling about this team. They have a new coach, and traded in an absolutely murderous OOC schedule last year ( Arizona, Kansas St., Oklahoma St., Colorado St.) for a slightly less murderous one (Alabama St., Colorado St., Arizona St., and Texas A&M). They get ODU and Charlotte from the East and give me every reason to believe that if the defense doesn't drop off too significantly, they could surprise. A win at Rice on 10/15 would certainly validate this article.

Predicted Champion Southern Miss
It's simple, the only serious title contenders on Southern Miss' schedule are Marshall and LA Tech - and the Eagles get both of them at home. Other than a couple of tough OOC games in the SEC, the rest of their schedule plays out as follows: Savannah St., Troy, UTEP, Rice, UTSA, Charlotte, ODU, and North Texas. They have the talent and the schedule to roll into the title game.

Final Analysis: This year's team has talent, but is inexperienced in some places where we need experience - especially on defense. How this team deals with adversity, and the end of each month will bring plenty, will say a lot about their final fortunes. Chances are still good that the Herd will go bowling. As far as titles go, I think we're one year away.

See you in October!

Logged

 

[19MU88]

wow! with 5 losses that would mean lose to every team that has a pulse on the schedule and three of those at home. that would be a bad season in my mind. that would also mean we can recruit...but nothing more. I'm thinking 9-3 needs to be the low end of what we are expecting/hoping.

 

[wisemaniac]

We've had 3 consecutive 10 win seasons. While I expect Doc to put a great team on the field, every once in a while the numbers don't quite work in our favor. I've got us winning 8, maybe 9, but hopefully all. Won't stop me from going to as many games as possible this year.

 

[Treadmill MUsic]

We are young at certain positions on defense. We have to beat Middle Tennesee and WKU and we will see how good Mr. Litton is when the Cards come to town.
Go Herd!

 

[TheGreenhouseEffect]

Re-watch the St Petersburg Bowl UConn win. It was Deandre Reeves v UConn and he won, lol.

Hate to say it, we aren't that good, doesn't mean we won't improve, but we are a work in progress IMO.

No WRs, young QB, no return threat, kicking game not proven. Lots of holes to fill.

Yup 8 wins is a decent season.

 

[thundermax]

We beat Looserville, Pitt and S. Miss. We will also put a beat down on WKU. Go Herd!

 

[jeremycriss]

I have us 8-4 with losses to Louisville, Pitt, Southern Miss and FIU.
Yes we've won 33 games in 3 years, but we're 8-8 vs teams with winning records during that stretch. We've been fortunate to play a lot of very very bad teams the past 2 years.

 

[caliherd]

If we win 7 games that is a complete failure of a season. We play in a horrendous conference. Have you seen the number of teams on our schedule ranked in the 100s? We also have mtsu and western ky at home. I have seen some of our horrible Snyder teams play amazing at home. 3 of our 5 away games are against bottom feeders. Two games I could see us losing on the road are Southern Miss and Pitt. Louisville will obviously be a tough one to win at home. But other than that we don't have a team on the rest of our schedule that we won't be favored in. 9-3 is a good possibility and 10-2 is also a good possibility. If we lose a bunch of games at home this year then Doc isn't near the coach that I think he is.

 

[Tim Hensley]

10 again.

 

[beefcake0520]

Wow, think some of you need to take a step back and really look at things. I see 9-3, at worst 8-4. I don't see FIU beating us, that's the wrong F_U that has given us fits. Being conservative, I am going to say losses to UL Pitt and either MTSU or USM or both. UL will be closer than they would like and Pitt is winnable.

 

[TheGreenhouseEffect]

I'd respectfully ask you to review the bowl game. Missed FGs , and they were a major issue last year 2nd half of the season.

Personally I think UL hangs 40 plus on us at home. I don't think we are mentally as tough as WKY that has thumped us twice in the last 2 tries. I can see MTSUs QB pulling out a W over a lethargic Marshall team.

Yes 7 wins , maybe 8. Could be a long season. I'll be there win or lose, but really, we aren't that good.

 

[beefcake0520]

I have reviewed it, I get bored and pull up youtube all the time. You realize that UConn had a ranked defense, right? I don't mean any offense to you or anyone else for your thoughts, but I personally just don't see 5 losses. I'm not sold on WKY, or for that matter USM. WKY has to replace an all world QB, USM has to adjust to new coaching, new coordinators, sometimes teams have a hard time with that. MTSU, maybe, yes but we also have them at home and should have beat that all world freshman last year.... Chase has a year under his belt now, anyone care to remember the big leap Cato made from year one to year two and its not to say that Chase didn't do well last year, I think he did great for a freshman? Once Legg or whoever decides to give him a more open playbook, I believe the kid is gonna take off. I don't think anyone would argue our FG kickers are a weak spot, we haven't had much luck with one in a long time.

 

[TwolfHerdfan]

MT will not beat us at home. 8-4 looks about right. Losses to UL, Pitt, USM and WKU - UGH!
JMHO.

With Rowe now gone, that aint gonna help.

 

[beefcake0520]

MT will not beat us at home. 8-4 looks about right. Losses to UL, Pitt, USM and WKU - UGH!
JMHO.

With Rowe now gone, that aint gonna help.

Yeah for sure about Rowe. I am hoping that Heater can pull it off again with our defense and getting new faces to meld together quickly. I can agree with your assessment but I refuse to say we lose to WKY. I'd say we have a better chance to lose to MTSU than WKY. Just my opinion.

 

[pdbailey]

Wow, think some of you need to take a step back and really look at things. I see 9-3, at worst 8-4. I don't see FIU beating us, that's the wrong F_U that has given us fits. Being conservative, I am going to say losses to UL Pitt and either MTSU or USM or both. UL will be closer than they would like and Pitt is winnable.

9-3 at worst or the season is a failure. I only see Louisville as a team that can beat us in Huntington, and the road game at Pitt could be a loss with S. Miss as a potential loss but I'm not buying the hype on them at this point due to the coaching changes and the lost of key offensive players. We were the walking wounded last season on offense and had a good year due to a very strong defense. For 2016, we have arguably more talent and depth on offense and defense at every position than we have ever had during the Doc years.

Look at this year's team:

• Return starting QB who should improve greatly over last season, and we will have a capable backup in either Morrell or Gaines.
• Lost Johnson/Watson at RB, but they only played about 1/3 of the time, and we return 3 talented RBs and add Weems and Anderson to the group
• WR- Lost Reaves/Allen, but the WR corp may be the deepest and best we've had according to Doc
• TE - Loaded with 2 all-conference caliber players
• OL- Lost Johansson but get Van Horn back and return the rest of the 2-deep
• DL - Lost Samuel and Dillon along with depth guys like Williams/Daniel, but return both starting DEs and 5 of top 6 and return 3 very talented DTs with highly regarded NQ Hames also added to the mix
• LB - We lost two very good ones in McKelvey and Hunter but add in Davon Durant along with some very talented youngsters that redshirted last year.
• CB - We lost Baxter and Tindal along with depth guys like Rowe, Griffin, and Williams-Hall, but return Allen and have highly talented newcomers like Jackson, Richardson, Carey, Fred Johnson, and Drayton added to the group.
• S - We lost Letman, but return Lang, Gant, and Neely while also adding Reavis and Maddox to the group
• PK - We return our kickers and add in Pontius to compete for the PK job.
• PT- Lost one of our best punters ever in Williams, but have a talented replacement in Vedvik who is capable of kicking it 50+ every time.
• LS - Potentially our main deficiency, as we lost a very good one in Cincotta and the position is now up for grabs.

 

[beefcake0520]

9-3 at worst or the season is a failure. I only see Louisville as a team that can beat us in Huntington, and the road game at Pitt could be a loss with S. Miss as a potential loss but I'm not buying the hype on them at this point due to the coaching changes and the lost of key offensive players. We were the walking wounded last season on offense and had a good year due to a very strong defense. For 2016, we have arguably more talent and depth on offense and defense at every position than we have ever had during the Doc years.

Look at this year's team:

• Return starting QB who should improve greatly over last season, and we will have a capable backup in either Morrell or Gaines.
• Lost Johnson/Watson at RB, but they only played about 1/3 of the time, and we return 3 talented RBs and add Weems and Anderson to the group
• WR- Lost Reaves/Allen, but the WR corp may be the deepest and best we've had according to Doc
• TE - Loaded with 2 all-conference caliber players
• OL- Lost Johansson but get Van Horn back and return the rest of the 2-deep
• DL - Lost Samuel and Dillon along with depth guys like Williams/Daniel, but return both starting DEs and 5 of top 6 and return 3 very talented DTs with highly regarded NQ Hames also added to the mix
• LB - We lost two very good ones in McKelvey and Hunter but add in Davon Durant along with some very talented youngsters that redshirted last year.
• CB - We lost Baxter and Tindal along with depth guys like Rowe, Griffin, and Williams-Hall, but return Allen and have highly talented newcomers like Jackson, Richardson, Carey, Fred Johnson, and Drayton added to the group.
• S - We lost Letman, but return Lang, Gant, and Neely while also adding Reavis and Maddox to the group
• PK - We return our kickers and add in Pontius to compete for the PK job.
• PT- Lost one of our best punters ever in Williams, but have a talented replacement in Vedvik who is capable of kicking it 50+ every time.
• LS - Potentially our main deficiency, as we lost a very good one in Cincotta and the position is now up for grabs.

Yeah I was looking at the same thing. I am not sold on USM either right now due to the same reasons. MTSU is probably going to be tougher than they are but that is in Huntington. Not sold on WKY being even half the team they were either, not sure why the publications think they will be?

 

[herdit44]

9-3 at worst or the season is a failure

yeah, because 9+ win regular seasons are easy for schools to accomplish.

 

[Herdon2]

Is WKU really supposed to be that good?? They lost some of their best players ever. Including their QB and huge TE who torched us. I don't see them as dominant as they were.

 

[I Herd dat]

I don't see losing anymore than 2 games max. I think Louisville is a loss but Pitt is a win. And at SoMiss is a loss. That's it

 

[Snortin Buffalo]

Other teams can reload too. WKU won't be as good as last year, but they will be very good. MTSU has a great QB and WR and will be very good as well. We can't take either for granted just because we play at the Joan.

 

[Herdon2]

Our biggest coop is having 2 tough conference foes at home

 

[ohio herd]

Okay lets not panic here. WKU upset us 2 years ago- that is the truth. They were not better than us not even close. Last year they had the team of a lifetime and they beat us cause they were better last year. They are not the better team and not the better program. We will beat
them at the- Joan mark it down. MTSU is shaping up into a decent rivalry. Of course they could beat us but we have the advantage of playing at home so I think we win that one. For the life of me I don't understand why some think we can't reload. I remember years ago talking to Jim Grobe when he was at Ohio and he told me that sometimes the kids coming up the pipeline are better than the ones who just left. I see us replacing everyone who left with players of equal or better talent. Herd 9-3 worst 10-2 best IMO.

 

[pdbailey]

yeah, because 9+ win regular seasons are easy for schools to accomplish.

Considering our OOC schedules and conference, we should be winning 9+ every year period. If you want to be the top G5 program then you have to have the necessary expectations, and I'm sure Doc's expectations are higher than 9 wins per year.

 

[herdit44]

Considering our OOC schedules and conference, we should be winning 9+ every year period. If you want to be the top G5 program then you have to have the necessary expectations, and I'm sure Doc's expectations are higher than 9 wins per year.

i know doc's expectations are higher, i know all of ours are higher, but to say an 8 win season is a "failure" is just silly. you know what season is a failure, the 0, 1, 2, 3 win seasons teams have...not a 8 win + bowl season.

 

[thunderlove]

We are Marshall not any other school! Expectations are what they are just expectations! We have one of the best programs in all college football not because we play the P5's of the World! Because we play period for 75 reasons! Rest of people's thoughts are valid but no one got the hell beat out of them for how many years and came back from almost total ruin! We got the DEATH SENTENCE and rose from the ashes!
Rick Tolley had a vision for Marshall football and everyday MH, Doc and staff work it to perfection!
The 75!

 

[Rock98Dog]

WKU returns their entire offensive line, two very good receivers and their top three backs. As long as their QB can be a serviceable game manager and not turn the ball over, they will be good this year. Also, no disrespect to Doc, but Brohm is just a better game planner and game day coach. Can't believe he didn't leave after last year, he will be a successful P5 coach with a big time gig in the future.

 

[beefcake0520]

WKU returns their entire offensive line, two very good receivers and their top three backs. As long as their QB can be a serviceable game manager and not turn the ball over, they will be good this year. Also, no disrespect to Doc, but Brohm is just a better game planner and game day coach. Can't believe he didn't leave after last year, he will be a successful P5 coach with a big time gig in the future.

True, I think the hold up on Brohm is his short time as a HC. The only area that Doc does beat him in is obviously Doc's bread and butter-Recruiting. Two different head coaches with two different methods. I think WKY will be in contention but I don't think they will win it this year, I do feel they will lose to us and Middle. Of course all this could be seen different if their new/old QB comes in and sets the place on fire first few games. What I am very curious about is not the other teams, but our own. I am curious to see how much further along Litton is, whether or not we have some outside receivers we can count on and of course who will step up at running back. Our db situation has me a weary on that side of the ball. I guess we have as many question marks as they do, with an advantage to us having the one position most important on the team taken care of in the QB. Will be interesting to see how things unfold.

 

[caliherd]

We will beat WKU and MTSU by double digits. The only home game I worry about is Louisville. Not because they are in a P5 conference but because they are a really good team. To beat Marshall at home you have to be much better than Marshall. Louisville actually may fit that bill but WKU and MTSU aren't close to be way better than Marshall.

The fact that WKU is replacing their 10 year starting quarterback is reason enough for me to think WKU won't be near the team they were last year. Heck look at MU we followed a 1st round NFL quarterback with another 1st round NFL quarterback and we weren't near as good in Byrons first year as we were his 2nd and 3rd years. Changing your star QB is huge especially at. G5 level.

 

[Herdmeister]

We will beat WKU and MTSU by double digits. The only home game I worry about is Louisville. Not because they are in a P5 conference but because they are a really good team. To beat Marshall at home you have to be much better than Marshall. Louisville actually may fit that bill but WKU and MTSU aren't close to be way better than Marshall.

The fact that WKU is replacing their 10 year starting quarterback is reason enough for me to think WKU won't be near the team they were last year. Heck look at MU we followed a 1st round NFL quarterback with another 1st round NFL quarterback and we weren't near as good in Byrons first year as we were his 2nd and 3rd years. Changing your star QB is huge especially at. G5 level.

I wish we played WKU earlier so the new QB wouldn't have had as much time to settle in.

 

[Herdmeister]

Is WKU really supposed to be that good?? They lost some of their best players ever. Including their QB and huge TE who torched us. I don't see them as dominant as they were.

MTSU will be the best in the east, with us, of course. USM will control the west.

 

[bbcard1]

Barring injuries, I think 9-3 / 10-2.