The World's Smartest Scientist Conflates Weather and Climate
- Thread starter wvkeeper(HN)
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This is good article on his tweet. NdGT seems guilty of his own pet peeve...equating climate to weather.
https://www.inverse.com/article/35923-hurricane-harvey-neil-degrasse-tyson-climate-change-weather
https://www.inverse.com/article/35923-hurricane-harvey-neil-degrasse-tyson-climate-change-weather
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People act like there have never been hurricanes in the Gulf Of Mexico before.
Ok...I googled it. The first six articles were from Quartz, NY Times, US Times, Times.com, Climate Depot, and the Washingtin Post. I actually read all six. In them were the discussion of the following...
*There's a difference between short term weather and climate change.
*The link between weather and climate change is an emerging science. We're still learning.
*Climate change could have an effect on the intensity of these storms.
*Climate change could possibly factor into the frequency of the storms.
*Heat provides the energy of storms and warming oceans could add to storm's intensity.
*Rising oceans could increase damage caused by storm surge.
What I didn't find was a single article where anyone remotely said or even implied that we never had hurricanes before. So my challenge still stands on that...
Link?
And since I woke up at 5am on a Saturday with no chance of falling back to sleep (as far as science knows, there's no link between my sleep patterns and climate change), I did a little reading on where science stands presently on the issue. Here's a hodgepodge of stuff that kept popping up...
*There has been an increase on record of the frequency of hurricanes since the late 1800s, but there's a strong likelihood that this is a result of better measurement ability. Smaller hurricanes in remote areas went undetected prior to satellite observation.
*There has been in increase fourfold of damage caused by hurricanes since the 1970s but this is likely due to the population and infrastructure increases along coastal areas and in flood plains.
*Present science linking climate change to weather patterns is emerging. There just isn't enough data for science to be conclusive on all the issues.
*Many recent studies suggest that storm frequency could remain the same or even decrease...not increase.
*There is very likely an increase in storm intensity due to rising surface temperatures.
Let's look at what we know. Ocean temperatures...especially significant surface temperatures...have risen. That is not debateable. The first law of thermodynamics states that energy cannot be be created or destroyed in a closed system. Heat is energy. Increasing surface temperatures, as Raoul could explain I'm sure, is adding energy to the system. Why do you think hurricanes are a warm weather phenomena occurring mostly in the tropics? The increase of surface temperature might not increase the frequency of storm events, but it most assuredly is increasing the intensity of them. The increase in category 4 and category 5 has taken a substantial increase since the 1970s. Warmer ocean temperatures also increase the amount of moisture in the air due to evaporation. So not only does the heat increase the energy in the system it increases the volume of rain, which can be impactful as storms reach land.
There's still a lot to learn. No single weather event can be used case in point. But logic and the laws of nature tells me that increasing ocean temperature affect storm systems. I'd love for Raoul to weigh in as the resident meteorology know a lot guy.
*There has been an increase on record of the frequency of hurricanes since the late 1800s, but there's a strong likelihood that this is a result of better measurement ability. Smaller hurricanes in remote areas went undetected prior to satellite observation.
*There has been in increase fourfold of damage caused by hurricanes since the 1970s but this is likely due to the population and infrastructure increases along coastal areas and in flood plains.
*Present science linking climate change to weather patterns is emerging. There just isn't enough data for science to be conclusive on all the issues.
*Many recent studies suggest that storm frequency could remain the same or even decrease...not increase.
*There is very likely an increase in storm intensity due to rising surface temperatures.
Let's look at what we know. Ocean temperatures...especially significant surface temperatures...have risen. That is not debateable. The first law of thermodynamics states that energy cannot be be created or destroyed in a closed system. Heat is energy. Increasing surface temperatures, as Raoul could explain I'm sure, is adding energy to the system. Why do you think hurricanes are a warm weather phenomena occurring mostly in the tropics? The increase of surface temperature might not increase the frequency of storm events, but it most assuredly is increasing the intensity of them. The increase in category 4 and category 5 has taken a substantial increase since the 1970s. Warmer ocean temperatures also increase the amount of moisture in the air due to evaporation. So not only does the heat increase the energy in the system it increases the volume of rain, which can be impactful as storms reach land.
There's still a lot to learn. No single weather event can be used case in point. But logic and the laws of nature tells me that increasing ocean temperature affect storm systems. I'd love for Raoul to weigh in as the resident meteorology know a lot guy.
fig·ure of speech
noun
- a word or phrase used in a non-literal sense for rhetorical or vivid effect.
I would guess if someone did the research there are no more hurricanes now than historically.
This is the first Cat 4 to hit land in over 10 years, you'd have to go back before regular Hurricane radar to get as big a gap. So the very recent warming period seems to have not had much effect.
Also, thankfully this hurricane hit Houston, a place with updated sewer and drainage systems which will greatly reduce damage from flooding.
Also, thankfully this hurricane hit Houston, a place with updated sewer and drainage systems which will greatly reduce damage from flooding.
It is one of my big pet peeves.
For sure, increasing water temps can intensify tropical systems (that's really the whole idea, it's energy), but it is a giant stretch if anyone blames this on climate change. There would still be a hurricane, and this one would still have been badass. I'm more interested in speed of intensification. This one blew up fast, but that's normal in the Gulf. I'm sure someone could tell us how much a degree warmer water really matters, but there isn't much difference in 135 mph wind verses 140 mph, it's still going to kick ass.
I think deGrasse's point is that he's not equating that the two events are linked. More so that people accept the science behind how we track hurricanes, they accept how we're able to predict the next eclipse. They accept the science behind how we tell Earth's weather history thousands of years ago. They don't however accept the science behind climate change. My experience is most don't believe in man made climate change because of religion. These folks have put their faith in something that can't scientifically be explained. You'll never be able to change their mind.
The biggest problem with Climate Change discussions are the fantastical predictions that don't come true.
None of you all know shit but what you read on the internet on this whole subject but you all act like you do.lol. No offense preacher but kinda follow you on this subject.
Nobody argues against things that can actually be proven, unlike climate change and any link to man-made activity.
