most understand fake news publishes fake polls. it bit them in the ass in 2016 and has bit them consistently in other elections since. on the flip side, there's a couple out there who was on the money in 2016 and have beaten the fake polls in other elections since. one of them is the Trafalgar Group.
The Trafalgar Group got key races right when others were wrong in 2016 and 2018.
While other polls conducted in November 2016 showed Clinton ahead by about five percentage points, the Trafalgar Group showed Trump leading by two points. On Election Day, Trump won Michigan by 0.3 points,
A similar story played out in Pennsylvania in 2016: Non-partisan public polls showed Clinton leading Trump by two to six points in the run-up to the election. Trafalgar showed Trump ahead by one point (the only poll showing Trump ahead), and he carried Pennsylvania by 0.7 points
“When we talk about hidden voters, what we’re talking about is the social-desirability bias, and that is when people basically tell a live-caller what they think will get them judged least harshly,” says Cahaly. “Some races have that, some races don’t.” Cahaly points to the Florida 2018 gubernatorial race as an example. Democrats had branded Republican Ron DeSantis as a racist, and all pollsters, except Trafalgar, showed Democrat Andrew Gillum with a lead in the days before the election. DeSantis won the election by 0.4 points.
Trafalgar is not a broken clock that gets rewarded for always pointing toward GOP victories. For example, it showed Democratic senator Debbie Stabenow leading by nine points in its final poll of Michigan in 2018; Stabenow defeated Republican John James by six points. Trafalgar showed Montana Democrat Jon Tester leading by one point in 2018; he won by three points. According to a FiveThirtyEight analysis of 48 Trafalgar polls, the pollster is on average biased 0.9 points in favor of Republicans.
State polls by the Trafalgar Group, which is the most accurate state pollster in the 2016 and 2018 elections, are very favorable to the President, and put him on a similar track to victory as he experienced four years ago.
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latest Trafalgar polls for swing states currently has Trump ahead in FL, MN, MI, NC, AZ, and OH.
The Trafalgar Group got key races right when others were wrong in 2016 and 2018.
While other polls conducted in November 2016 showed Clinton ahead by about five percentage points, the Trafalgar Group showed Trump leading by two points. On Election Day, Trump won Michigan by 0.3 points,
A similar story played out in Pennsylvania in 2016: Non-partisan public polls showed Clinton leading Trump by two to six points in the run-up to the election. Trafalgar showed Trump ahead by one point (the only poll showing Trump ahead), and he carried Pennsylvania by 0.7 points
“When we talk about hidden voters, what we’re talking about is the social-desirability bias, and that is when people basically tell a live-caller what they think will get them judged least harshly,” says Cahaly. “Some races have that, some races don’t.” Cahaly points to the Florida 2018 gubernatorial race as an example. Democrats had branded Republican Ron DeSantis as a racist, and all pollsters, except Trafalgar, showed Democrat Andrew Gillum with a lead in the days before the election. DeSantis won the election by 0.4 points.
Trafalgar is not a broken clock that gets rewarded for always pointing toward GOP victories. For example, it showed Democratic senator Debbie Stabenow leading by nine points in its final poll of Michigan in 2018; Stabenow defeated Republican John James by six points. Trafalgar showed Montana Democrat Jon Tester leading by one point in 2018; he won by three points. According to a FiveThirtyEight analysis of 48 Trafalgar polls, the pollster is on average biased 0.9 points in favor of Republicans.
Polls showing Biden beating Trump don't add up
Columnist Dwight Weidman discusses why he thinks Trump v. Biden polls aren't showing the true state of the race.
www.publicopiniononline.com
State polls by the Trafalgar Group, which is the most accurate state pollster in the 2016 and 2018 elections, are very favorable to the President, and put him on a similar track to victory as he experienced four years ago.
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latest Trafalgar polls for swing states currently has Trump ahead in FL, MN, MI, NC, AZ, and OH.
