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Vaginitis is the bigger problem.

i am herdman

i am herdman

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Mar 5, 2006
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Hot dang, I haver never seen mass hysteria and panic over something like this in all my days. We are screwed if the shit ever really hit the fan. It is beyond absurd and ludicrous.

CMON AMERICA. GET YOUR NADS BACK IN PLACE. GUT CHECK. WHAT KIND OF VAGINIFCATION OF AMERICA IS HAPPENING. WHAT HAPPENED TO OUR COUNTRY.

STOP BEING PUSSIES! Live in Fear, OMG, the news media, shut it all down. We have honestly raised a nation of sissies and fear mongerers.
 
This is not a vaginitis issue.


It’s a math issue. If you understand exponential growth, tail risk, and finite supply of staff and ventilators then you’d be worried. Italy is staring at a 4% case fatality rate right now. If we don’t get serious about testing and social distancing it’ll be us too.
 
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-CarlHungus- said:
This is not a vaginitis issue.


It’s a math issue. If you understand exponential growth, tail risk, and finite supply of staff and ventilators then you’d be worried. Italy is staring at a 4% case fatality rate right now. If we don’t get serious about testing and social distancing it’ll be us too.
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Horse shit. This is all a bunch of hype and the media frenzy trying to shut the country down. And, the American people losing their intestinal fortitude.

This is the angriest I have been in some time. America has no god damn balls right now.
 
So you’ve seen what Wuhan and Milan look like and you think there’s something so unique about the US that it can’t happen here?

Are we going to out muscle the virus?

I’m angry too at the WHO, CDC, and Trump too for doing too little earlier. Should have shut down every flight from China and Italy. America first. Quit making everything in China and being such a fragile supply chain that a damn bat half way across the world crippled us.

It’s not the end of the world but inaction now could be catastrophic .
 
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-CarlHungus- said:
So you’ve seen what Wuhan and Milan look like and you think there’s something so unique about the US that it can’t happen here?

Are we going to out muscle the virus?

I’m angry too at the WHO, CDC, and Trump too for doing too little earlier. Should have shut down every flight from China and Italy. America first. Quit making everything in China and being such a fragile supply chain that a damn bat half way across the world crippled us.

It’s not the end of the world but inaction now could be catastrophic .
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They tried that one time and the libs, media, etc. went crazy? Remember shutting borders down. You know what they would have done if he did that? You know it, Carl. They would have cried over reaction, racism, OMG what have you done.

I agree on the Chinese thing in theory. We are too reliant upon them. I do agree there.
 
But that’s where Trump would need to give his middle finger to everyone and explain the shut down with good communication.

This isn’t all on Trump, but tweets about the flu aren’t helping.
 
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-CarlHungus- said:
But that’s where Trump would need to give his middle finger to everyone and explain the shut down with good communication.

This isn’t all on Trump, but tweets about the flu aren’t helping.
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So you think Trump should have declared a state of emergency and shut down travel even before the WHO even declared this a global health emergency at the end of January????
 
raleighherdfan said:
So you think Trump should have declared a state of emergency and shut down travel even before the WHO even declared this a global health emergency at the end of January????
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From China in early Feb yes. The vice reporter just got back from Milan a couple of days ago and not a single person checked her temp. That’s inexcusable.

If not restricting travel then using an app based self quarantine with fines for those violating.

Im sensitive to authoritarian central governments and their own problems. There’s a reason people like Gates and Taleb are concerned about black swan pandemics though. The WHO botched this from day one, favoring China (world) economy over pandemic risk. There is a middle ground though, and it is early decisive intervention and taking a small economic lump to avoid the giant hit.

Go back and look at what Taleb was saying in January. He was dead right.

 
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-CarlHungus- said:
Im sensitive to authoritarian central governments and their own problems.
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Yes. Research has shown that while authoritarian governments are very good at some things relating to pandemics (locking down cities with gun barrels), they are very bad at other things: telling the truth, being trusted with the information they put out, putting economic output over public health, and generally giving a shit about people. This is why pandemics usually more greatly affect such nations. It's kind of scary to see our people at the top making some of those same mistakes and perhaps getting the same results.
 
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Still just a vaginitis problem?

Look at what I posted and what people smarter than me or you or anyone on this board were saying back in January (see below). I sold off a lot of equity (not all, but about 25% of all my VTSAX) in the markets in mid Feb after I got email after email from otherwise very smart people (Vanguard CEO, financial advisers) that made one too many "it's just the flu, it's like SARS/H1N1, etc" comments that told me they didn't understand this.

Again, not the apocalypse and we'll get through this, but we have very real fragility in our modern world due to globalization, normalcy bias, and a disconnect with what is real and hype making us very susceptible to this virus.

https://www.academia.edu/41743064/Systemic_Risk_of_Pandemic_via_Novel_Pathogens_-_Coronavirus_A_Note
 
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i am herdman said:
Horse shit. This is all a bunch of hype and the media frenzy trying to shut the country down. And, the American people losing their intestinal fortitude.

This is the angriest I have been in some time. America has no god damn balls right now.
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Christ...you’re arguing medical issues with a guy that had four years of undergrad, four years of medical school, two to four years of residency as well as years experience as an Oncologist. That’s scary.

And as far as vaginification...wanna rassle?
 
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GK4Herd said:
Christ...you’re arguing medical issues with a guy that had four years of undergrad, four years of medical school, two to four years of residency as well as years experience as an Oncologist. That’s scary.

And as far as vaginification...wanna rassle?
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To his credit he's come around with comments in other threads.

With that said, doctors have been way wrong about this. I started getting real worried when I was hearing the doctors compare this to a flu season when Italy and Wuhan were in shambles.

Epidemiologists and mathematicians and physicists IMO are better at pandemic/risk stuff. For the most part, doctors don't know a lot about this stuff believe it or not. More than the average person, but not as much as other experts.

* and for the record, I only did 3 years of undergrad because I had about 30 AP hours going in :)...and a few more years of residency.
 
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Number of deaths caused by....

hype/dem hoax/mass hysteria/panic = 4700+

Number of lives saved by herdman's trump propaganda = 0
 
-CarlHungus- said:
* and for the record, I only did 3 years of undergrad because I had about 30 AP hours going in :)...and a few more years of residency.
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The real question is how did you find a way to graduate early even with the AP credits? My daughter had a truckload as well and ended up having to double major because the classes she needed weren’t available for her to graduate early. She was basically forced into a fourth year. That being said, it’s pretty cool that she’ll graduate with a double major. She was offered a GA position for grad school so tuition waivers....yay.
 
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GK4Herd said:
The real question is how did you find a way to graduate early even with the AP credits? My daughter had a truckload as well and ended up having to double major because the classes she needed weren’t available for her to graduate early. She was basically forced into a fourth year. That being said, it’s pretty cool that she’ll graduate with a double major. She was offered a GA position for grad school so tuition waivers....yay.
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I just did a single major and noticed I would have enough credits for my degree early and truth be told it was only 1 semester early, not a full year, so I *really* graduated in 3.5 years. I asked some of the private scholarship foundations I had if I had to pay back extra if I walked for graduation a semester early and they said no, you can keep all of your extra cash. So, I just put in for my diploma and they gave it to me. I then went to work for a physician scientist for 6 months doing retina research prior to med school.

My parents gave me $8K on the day of my graduation too and I balled like a child out at our fancy dinner at Applebees. It was the money they saved for me for college that they never had to use. Ended up using a chunk of that money for an engagement ring a few years later.

..
 
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-CarlHungus- said:
To his credit he's come around with comments in other threads.

With that said, doctors have been way wrong about this. I started getting real worried when I was hearing the doctors compare this to a flu season when Italy and Wuhan were in shambles.

Epidemiologists and mathematicians and physicists IMO are better at pandemic/risk stuff. For the most part, doctors don't know a lot about this stuff believe it or not. More than the average person, but not as much as other experts.

* and for the record, I only did 3 years of undergrad because I had about 30 AP hours going in :)...and a few more years of residency.
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you know rifle is a doctor as well, don't you? he read an article when he was studying at Georgetown, as well as watched a couple youtube videos, so he knows more about doctoring than anybody on this forum.
 
-CarlHungus- said:
I just did a single major and noticed I would have enough credits for my degree early and truth be told it was only 1 semester early, not a full year, so I *really* graduated in 3.5 years. I asked some of the private scholarship foundations I had if I had to pay back extra if I walked for graduation a semester early and they said no, you can keep all of your extra cash. So, I just put in for my diploma and they gave it to me. I then went to work for a physician scientist for 6 months doing retina research prior to med school.

My parents gave me $8K on the day of my graduation too and I balled like a child out at our fancy dinner at Applebees. It was the money they saved for me for college that they never had to use. Ended up using a chunk of that money for an engagement ring a few years later.

..
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362e7d1c-9a27-41ec-a1b2-6ef6fcec117a_text.gif
 
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GK4Herd said:
Christ...you’re arguing medical issues with a guy that had four years of undergrad, four years of medical school, two to four years of residency as well as years experience as an Oncologist. That’s scary.

And as far as vaginification...wanna rassle?
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Hey I have argued with others with titles as well. Isn't that why we are here? :)


No, I don't want to rassle. I will buy you a beer but, not one of those trendy fad ones with the weir name and overhyped label.
 
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-CarlHungus- said:
To his credit he's come around with comments in other threads.

With that said, doctors have been way wrong about this. I started getting real worried when I was hearing the doctors compare this to a flu season when Italy and Wuhan were in shambles.

Epidemiologists and mathematicians and physicists IMO are better at pandemic/risk stuff. For the most part, doctors don't know a lot about this stuff believe it or not. More than the average person, but not as much as other experts.

* and for the record, I only did 3 years of undergrad because I had about 30 AP hours going in :)...and a few more years of residency.
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YOu see some of the doctors were talking about it as well. And, I heard some today saying it is being over exaggerated.
 
extragreen said:
Number of deaths caused by....

hype/dem hoax/mass hysteria/panic = 4700+

Number of lives saved by herdman's trump propaganda = 0
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I would have shut the borders down a long time ago. Remember.

And, part of the problem is nobody trust the stupid media anymore. Nor the government either. So, there is not reliable source and even the experts disagree.

All, I know is I have lost 120 grand this week or something like that because the damn world is freaking out.
 
i am herdman said:
I would have shut the borders down a long time ago. Remember.

And, part of the problem is nobody trust the stupid media anymore. Nor the government either. So, there is not reliable source and even the experts disagree.

All, I know is I have lost 120 grand this week or something like that because the damn world is freaking out.
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People freaking out = pointless liberal hysteria
Shutting down the borders and imposing mandatory quarantines = sound decision making

You sold your stake, rather than doubling down?
 
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7.7 Billion people on the planet, "160k" get sick, 4700 people die...and the world stops.

330 million people in the US, 39 people die....$$Trillions lost.

No doubt, if Mackay were alive today...he would be adding a chapter.

images
 
extragreen said:
Fake news.^^^^
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The world is freaking out and I have lost into 6 figures, easily. You realize some people actually have retirement accounts, stocks, investments and don't work for hayseeds. But, I will make it back. I am patient. You really are a simpleton with a pea brain view of the world.

If someone has 500,000 in a retirement account and it goes down 20% then its 6 figures right there.
 
i am herdman said:
The world is freaking out and I have lost into 6 figures, easily. You realize some people actually have retirement accounts, stocks, investments and don't work for hayseeds. But, I will make it back. I am patient. You really are a simpleton with a pea brain view of the world.

If someone has 500,000 in a retirement account and it goes down 20% then its 6 figures right there.
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You're a lying moron with no empathy for the oppressed. If you want someone to feel sorry for you, here's a hint....it ain't me.
 
extragreen said:
You're a lying moron with no empathy for the oppressed. If you want someone to feel sorry for you, here's a hint....it ain't me.
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Why would I want anyone to feel sorry for me? I am fine. I just stated what I have lost which will come back and it was on "paper". Others will be hit much harder.
 
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