Very early in this election cycle...

[GK4Herd]

...I said that I didn't believe Trump was electable. What do I know?


Any guesses as to why most polls had Hillary with a comfortable lead all the way up to the election? I always believed that polls were a reflection of the ideology of the poll giver. Am I right or was the late negative publicity for Hillary enough to change support or sway undecideds?

 

[30Kelly]

Two words...

Silent Majority

 

[big_country90]

Polls are supposed to be designed to reflect public opinion. However, many pollsters use them as a way to shape public opinion.

 

[-CarlHungus-]

Like a lot of complex things, I think it's a combo of things like what is listed :

1. Bad methodology. Lot's of over sampling of dems or extrapolating turnout demographics from Obama election years when excitement/motivation was way higher.

2. Silent majority. People may not answer polls, not talk to their friends about politics, but want to pull the lever when no eyes/pollsters are upon them.

3. Bias. Like BC said, using polls to shape opinion or try to produce a self fulfilling prophecy (ie our poll says Trump is getting demolished, so don't go out and vote it's not worth your time...then the poll ends up being "correct" if they shaped the public opinion/turnout that way).

 

[GeauxHerd]

Polls are supposed to be designed to reflect public opinion. However, many pollsters use them as a way to shape public opinion.

This. Trump was basically winning from the get go. They were trying to use polls to tampen down the enthusiasm for change, and now look foolish.

 

[extragreen]

No, there was no conspiracy. This type of rhetoric makes you look childish. The pollsters need to adjust their methodology. I believe the ibd-tpp? poll has out performed the others in the last 2 presidential cycles.

 

[GeauxHerd]

No, there was no conspiracy. This type of rhetoric makes you look childish. The pollsters need to adjust their methodology. I believe the ibd-tpp? poll has out performed the others in the last 2 presidential cycles.

Some polls Had Hillary up 12%. Yes their methodology was wrong but its because they wanted it to be that way.

 

[extragreen]

I saw no major polls with any such numbers.

 

[-CarlHungus-]

I tend to agree with extra here, it's a methodology issue.

However, some of that may be due to conscious or unconscious bias or echo chamber influencing methodology considerations though.

 

[big_country90]

When you over-sample a certain group, like the ABC poll did on several occasions, by polling far more democrats than republicans, you get skewed samples that show things that simply aren't true. Plus, who REALLY likes to sit there and answer a pollsters' questions?

 

[andy4theherd]

i'm pushing 40 and haven't had a landline phone in 15 years. most of the people i know don't either. we didn't get polled...

 

[WV-FAN]

Polls are supposed to be designed to reflect public opinion. However, many pollsters use them as a way to shape public opinion.

THIS!

 

[raleighherdfan]

I saw no major polls with any such numbers.

Sure you did. That's why you (libs) and some of this board's "conservative-nevertrumper-Independents" were so confident about a Hillary election landslide early on. Some even thinking it, as late as last night.

 

[Raoul Duke MU]

i'm pushing 40 and haven't had a landline phone in 15 years. most of the people i know don't either. we didn't get polled...

I have been polled on my mobile phone, I was for the GOP primary. Not sure how much of that there is. But I would think a land-line only poll would under sample Democrats.

 

[Raoul Duke MU]

Like a lot of complex things, I think it's a combo of things like what is listed :

1. Bad methodology. Lot's of over sampling of dems or extrapolating turnout demographics from Obama election years when excitement/motivation was way higher.

2. Silent majority. People may not answer polls, not talk to their friends about politics, but want to pull the lever when no eyes/pollsters are upon them.

3. Bias. Like BC said, using polls to shape opinion or try to produce a self fulfilling prophecy (ie our poll says Trump is getting demolished, so don't go out and vote it's not worth your time...then the poll ends up being "correct" if they shaped the public opinion/turnout that way).

1. Turnout demographics was huge.

 

[andy4theherd]

I have been polled on my mobile phone, I was for the GOP primary. Not sure how much of that there is. But I would think a land-line only poll would under sample Democrats.

i thought i heard one of the "pundits" say they were not allowed to poll cell phones... i may have heard it wrong.

 

[Raoul Duke MU]

i thought i heard one of the "pundits" say they were not allowed to poll cell phones... i may have heard it wrong.

He might have said it, but he would be wrong. However, cell phones cannot be called with an auto-dailer, they must be manually called.

 

[sistersville]

gosh hillary will go down as a bigtime loser. Dewey clinton

 

[GeauxHerd]

i'm pushing 40 and haven't had a landline phone in 15 years. most of the people i know don't either. we didn't get polled...

You are getting polled alright just not on the phone....