when do we declare victory over COVID?

ohio herd

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So far we have tried to keep people inside, wear masks and socially distance from one another, Here is a thought from an article I read today:

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-outbreak-end.html

Pandemics end when the virus doesn't have enough susceptible people to infect.


The catastrophic 1918 Spanish flu pandemic is thought to have infected 500 million people worldwide, many of them soldiers living in close quarters fighting in World War I. Once the war ended and people dispersed, the spread slowed as people had less contact. But the flu was ultimately halted in part because those who survived it had immunity and the virus didn't hop as easily as it did at the beginning.


If the virus comes into contact with another person but that person isn't susceptible to the disease, then that chain of transmission is snuffed out. If one person infects two, those people together infect four and so on, and eventually, the virus runs out of susceptible people to infect, said Joshua Epstein, a professor of epidemiology at New York University. "What happens typically is that enough people get the bug that there just aren't enough susceptible people to keep the chain going."

"I think it's unlikely that this coronavirus — because it's so readily transmissible — will disappear completely," said Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious-disease specialist at Vanderbilt University in Tennessee.


Eradication of a disease is "difficult and rarely achieved," according to the World Health Organization. For that to happen, there must be an available intervention to interrupt transmission, there must be diagnostic tools to detect cases that could lead to transmission and humans must be the only reservoir for the virus, they wrote.

So here's my take on this, we are just trying to postpone the inevitable aren't we? Realistically we can't keep people inside forever. A vaccine will not necessarily be highly effective nobody can guarantee that even Fauci admits this. The flu vaccine which has been around a long time is only somewhere between 20 and 50 % effective most years so I have no reason to think this will be more effective. SO my question is how will we know when to move forward again? Will we wear a mask forever? Will we ever be able to go to a football game again?
 
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Marc22

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So far we have tried to keep people inside, wear masks and socially distance from one another, Here is a thought from an article I read today:

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-outbreak-end.html

Pandemics end when the virus doesn't have enough susceptible people to infect.


The catastrophic 1918 Spanish flu pandemic is thought to have infected 500 million people worldwide, many of them soldiers living in close quarters fighting in World War I. Once the war ended and people dispersed, the spread slowed as people had less contact. But the flu was ultimately halted in part because those who survived it had immunity and the virus didn't hop as easily as it did at the beginning.


If the virus comes into contact with another person but that person isn't susceptible to the disease, then that chain of transmission is snuffed out. If one person infects two, those people together infect four and so on, and eventually, the virus runs out of susceptible people to infect, said Joshua Epstein, a professor of epidemiology at New York University. "What happens typically is that enough people get the bug that there just aren't enough susceptible people to keep the chain going."

"I think it's unlikely that this coronavirus — because it's so readily transmissible — will disappear completely," said Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious-disease specialist at Vanderbilt University in Tennessee.


Eradication of a disease is "difficult and rarely achieved," according to the World Health Organization. For that to happen, there must be an available intervention to interrupt transmission, there must be diagnostic tools to detect cases that could lead to transmission and humans must be the only reservoir for the virus, they wrote.

So here's my take on this, we are just trying to postpone the inevitable aren't we? Realistically we can't keep people inside forever. A vaccine will not necessarily be highly effective nobody can guarantee that even Faulci admits this. The flu vaccine which has been around a long time is only somewhere between 20 and 50 % effective most years so I have no reason to think this will be more effective. SO my question is how will we know when to move forward again? Will we wear a mask forever? Will we ever be able to go to a football game again?
Yes. Durham knows!
 

i am herdman

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There isn’t a flu vaccine.

Covid will likely be around for generations. The media panic will subside after mid November....
exactly

goes away in november

there is not cure coming anytime soon. This was a media frenzy pseudo coup
 

mlblack16.

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There isn’t a flu vaccine.

Covid will likely be around for generations. The media panic will subside after mid November....

True. Anyone want evidence to support this? Just look at the first 2 weeks of the riots. COVID all but disappeared, because the media said so.
 

Sean Hammond

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COVID disappeared? It wasn’t being reported on as much, but it didn’t disappear. The media is going to report on things that get people to tune in. It’s their business. Death tolls were big, but riots are more intriguing than death tolls.

COVID will disappear in November? Whoever wins in November, there will be more talk about that because it’s more intriguing. But COVID isn’t going anywhere. We win the war on COVID when entertainment opens back up. When concerts are being played in sold out arenas and football seasons aren’t played in the spring.

If COVID was going to disappear in November, we’d have a fall college football season.
 
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