So far we have tried to keep people inside, wear masks and socially distance from one another, Here is a thought from an article I read today:
https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-outbreak-end.html
Pandemics end when the virus doesn't have enough susceptible people to infect.
The catastrophic 1918 Spanish flu pandemic is thought to have infected 500 million people worldwide, many of them soldiers living in close quarters fighting in World War I. Once the war ended and people dispersed, the spread slowed as people had less contact. But the flu was ultimately halted in part because those who survived it had immunity and the virus didn't hop as easily as it did at the beginning.
If the virus comes into contact with another person but that person isn't susceptible to the disease, then that chain of transmission is snuffed out. If one person infects two, those people together infect four and so on, and eventually, the virus runs out of susceptible people to infect, said Joshua Epstein, a professor of epidemiology at New York University. "What happens typically is that enough people get the bug that there just aren't enough susceptible people to keep the chain going."
"I think it's unlikely that this coronavirus — because it's so readily transmissible — will disappear completely," said Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious-disease specialist at Vanderbilt University in Tennessee.
Eradication of a disease is "difficult and rarely achieved," according to the World Health Organization. For that to happen, there must be an available intervention to interrupt transmission, there must be diagnostic tools to detect cases that could lead to transmission and humans must be the only reservoir for the virus, they wrote.
So here's my take on this, we are just trying to postpone the inevitable aren't we? Realistically we can't keep people inside forever. A vaccine will not necessarily be highly effective nobody can guarantee that even Fauci admits this. The flu vaccine which has been around a long time is only somewhere between 20 and 50 % effective most years so I have no reason to think this will be more effective. SO my question is how will we know when to move forward again? Will we wear a mask forever? Will we ever be able to go to a football game again?
https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-outbreak-end.html
Pandemics end when the virus doesn't have enough susceptible people to infect.
The catastrophic 1918 Spanish flu pandemic is thought to have infected 500 million people worldwide, many of them soldiers living in close quarters fighting in World War I. Once the war ended and people dispersed, the spread slowed as people had less contact. But the flu was ultimately halted in part because those who survived it had immunity and the virus didn't hop as easily as it did at the beginning.
If the virus comes into contact with another person but that person isn't susceptible to the disease, then that chain of transmission is snuffed out. If one person infects two, those people together infect four and so on, and eventually, the virus runs out of susceptible people to infect, said Joshua Epstein, a professor of epidemiology at New York University. "What happens typically is that enough people get the bug that there just aren't enough susceptible people to keep the chain going."
"I think it's unlikely that this coronavirus — because it's so readily transmissible — will disappear completely," said Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious-disease specialist at Vanderbilt University in Tennessee.
Eradication of a disease is "difficult and rarely achieved," according to the World Health Organization. For that to happen, there must be an available intervention to interrupt transmission, there must be diagnostic tools to detect cases that could lead to transmission and humans must be the only reservoir for the virus, they wrote.
So here's my take on this, we are just trying to postpone the inevitable aren't we? Realistically we can't keep people inside forever. A vaccine will not necessarily be highly effective nobody can guarantee that even Fauci admits this. The flu vaccine which has been around a long time is only somewhere between 20 and 50 % effective most years so I have no reason to think this will be more effective. SO my question is how will we know when to move forward again? Will we wear a mask forever? Will we ever be able to go to a football game again?
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