I predicted a collapse between 6-12 months after the last freedom bird was wheels up, but didn't think it would begin this early.
KABUL—The U.S. intelligence community concluded last week that the government of Afghanistan could collapse as soon as six months after the American military withdrawal from the country is completed, according to officials with knowledge of the new assessment.
American intelligence agencies revised their previously more optimistic estimates as the Taliban swept through northern Afghanistan last week, seizing dozens of districts and surrounding major cities. The new assessment of the overall U.S. intelligence community, which hasn’t been previously reported, has now aligned more closely with the analysis that had been generated by the U.S. military.
On multiple occasions in recent days, government forces surrendered to the Taliban, leaving behind convoys of Humvees and stockpiles of weaponry, including artillery pieces, mortars and heavy machine guns.
U.S. intelligence experts had believed the government of President Ashraf Ghani, who is slated to meet President Biden in Washington on Friday, could survive as long as two years once the U.S. withdrawal is completed. That is roughly the same interval that elapsed between the U.S. withdrawal from Vietnam and the fall of Saigon in April 1975.
The latest view of intelligence analysts and senior U.S. military officials, however, is that the government of Afghanistan and its capital, Kabul, could fall between six to 12 months after American forces depart, according to officials.
Some ANA and ANP forces are surrendering without a fight. Fvcking assholes. ANP laying down is no surprise. We did an OK job training and supplying ANA but ANP are nothing but unimaginably corrupt pedophiliac scum.
A Wave of Afghan Surrenders to the Taliban Picks Up Speed https://nyti.ms/3yGNGtY
Good Reuters article here.
KABUL—The U.S. intelligence community concluded last week that the government of Afghanistan could collapse as soon as six months after the American military withdrawal from the country is completed, according to officials with knowledge of the new assessment.
American intelligence agencies revised their previously more optimistic estimates as the Taliban swept through northern Afghanistan last week, seizing dozens of districts and surrounding major cities. The new assessment of the overall U.S. intelligence community, which hasn’t been previously reported, has now aligned more closely with the analysis that had been generated by the U.S. military.
On multiple occasions in recent days, government forces surrendered to the Taliban, leaving behind convoys of Humvees and stockpiles of weaponry, including artillery pieces, mortars and heavy machine guns.
U.S. intelligence experts had believed the government of President Ashraf Ghani, who is slated to meet President Biden in Washington on Friday, could survive as long as two years once the U.S. withdrawal is completed. That is roughly the same interval that elapsed between the U.S. withdrawal from Vietnam and the fall of Saigon in April 1975.
The latest view of intelligence analysts and senior U.S. military officials, however, is that the government of Afghanistan and its capital, Kabul, could fall between six to 12 months after American forces depart, according to officials.
Some ANA and ANP forces are surrendering without a fight. Fvcking assholes. ANP laying down is no surprise. We did an OK job training and supplying ANA but ANP are nothing but unimaginably corrupt pedophiliac scum.
A Wave of Afghan Surrenders to the Taliban Picks Up Speed https://nyti.ms/3yGNGtY
Good Reuters article here.
