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fyi Charles Huff..

sluggo72

Silver Buffalo
Aug 31, 2006
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Charles Huff has been superb this season at Marshall, has the Herd atop the Sun Belt Conference Eastern Division standings and should be undefeated in league play if not for a late letdown against Georgia Southern. The Herd have won six of their last seven and control their destiny to play for the Sun Belt Conference crown.

from Football Scoop.com
 
I’m just going to point out something, take it however you want.

There are currently 7 teams over .500 and 7 teams that are .500 or worse in the conference. We are 0-1 against the first group and 5-0 against the second group.

We missed the best 4 teams in the west and have so far only played one of the other 3 top teams in the east.

If we lose the next 2 we will be 0-3 against teams with a winning conference record and 5-0 against the bad teams. That means we are the most average team in the conference.

If we beat ODU and lose to JMU it means we are the 5th or 6th best team this year.

To me, being between the 5th and 8th best team in a 14 team conference isn’t close to acceptable. If we don’t win the next two it will be another blah, useless, wasted season.
 
I don't know if you gent's watch SBC football continuously like I do, but Marshall has one of the very top "grid it out" teams in the conference, not (however) among the top big play teams. When we contain the big plays, we win with our grind it out capabilities. ODU and JMU are both proud of some big play games this year, but candidly, neither have played anyone in the conference with the closing speed of our DBs and Safeties. Now, their both also good JAC teams, which is a downfall of ours. Both away is a problem, I'm not a betting person, but if I were, and we were at home, I'd take the Herd in both games. So I'm saying its 60/40 for us on both their fields.
 
saw this today and thought it was interesting.

What is stop rate? It's a basic measurement of success: the percentage of a defense's drives that end in punts, turnovers or a turnover on downs. Defensive coordinators have the same goal regardless of their scheme, opponent or conference: prevent points and get off the field. Stop rate is a simple metric but can offer a good reflection of a defense's effectiveness on a per-drive basis in today's faster-tempo game.

Last year, national champ Michigan finished No. 1 with a stop rate of 81.6% in its games against FBS opponents. The top 25 teams in the final 2023 stop rate standings won a total of 249 games, with seven earning conference titles. Great teams find a way to get stops in critical situations.


TeamGamesStop RatePts/Drive
1. Notre Dame1081.7%0.95
2. Ohio State1081.7%0.86
3. Army880.6%1.18
4. Texas1079.7%0.94
5. Tennessee977.8%1.19
6. James Madison976.1%1.40
7. Ole Miss975.2%1.18
8. Indiana974.5%1.38
9. Alabama974.3%1.33
10. Sam Houston1074.2%1.51
11. Oregon1072.8%1.38
12. Iowa State972.3%1.58
13. Miami (OH)1071.4%1.53
13. Penn State1071.4%1.28
15. South Carolina1071.3%1.52
16. Colorado971.2%1.64
17. Tulane1071.1%1.49
18. Oklahoma970.8%1.50
19. Northern Illinois970.6%1.46
20. Utah970.4%1.57
21. Virginia Tech1070.4%1.77
22. Iowa970%1.53
23. UConn969.5%1.49
24. SMU969.4%1.82
25. Clemson1069.1%1.74
26. Wisconsin969.1%1.75
27. Duke968.9%1.65
28. Louisiana Tech968.9%1.68
29. Nebraska968.8%1.86
30. Ohio968.6%1.69
30. California968.6%1.81
32. Auburn968%1.71
33. Navy968%1.94
33. Texas State968%1.60
35. Houston1067.8%1.83
36. Western Kentucky967.7%1.96
37. Toledo967.5%1.63
38. Colorado State967.3%1.95
39. Texas A&M967%1.72
40. Minnesota966.7%1.72
40. Kansas State966.7%1.95
40. Missouri966.7%1.89
43. UNLV966.4%1.95
44. Rice966.3%1.86
45. BYU966%1.75
46. Kentucky965.9%1.82
47. Boise State965.7%2.07
48. Pittsburgh965.5%1.97
49. Florida International965.4%1.92
49. Marshall965.4%1.9
 
Stop rate is an indicator that declines rapidly in predictability when you start getting under 70%. It’s fairly obvious from your table, only 22 teams at 70% or better, then 27 teams between 69.9 and 65.4%. Those 27 teams are a mix of good, average, and bad teams.

The average team has 11-12 possessions a game. I think that looking at defensive points allowed isn’t really different from stop rate. Both tell you who has the most effective defenses where it matters most.
 
I think that looking at defensive points allowed isn’t really different from stop rate. Both tell you who has the most effective defenses where it matters most.

They are both, not entirely but significantly, junk stats.

Let's say Team A has a really good offense. Their offense scores a lot or drives long enough to flip the field and give the opposing offense bad field position a lot of the time.

Team B has a putrid offense. They turn the ball over (putting their defense in short-field situations), don't put together drives/gain yards which means the opposing offense routinely gets great field position.

Team A's defense could start a drive at the opposing 10 yard line, allow a 70 yard drive, and only give up a field goal.
Team B's defense could start a drive at midfield, allow a 20 yard drive, and only give up a field goal.

Yet based on the stats you are championing (defensive points allowed and stop rate), both defenses would be tied even though one is far superior than the other.

At Footballoutsiders.com, we had a very good stat that looked at yards given up vs. remaining yards possibly gained at the start of a drive. I saw "we," because I discovered a logical error with one of their stats more than a decade ago. They partially agreed and spun that to a new stat, found out I was a coach, and frequently used me for consulting and testing. Unfortunately, after selling the site, the new owners went bankrupt, and it is gone. It was, by far, the best football site out there made by a bunch of Brown University alums.

Back to the example: In other words, Team A would allow 70 yards. Team B would allow 20 yards. Both would get stops and be given the same score using your stats, yet one defense was far better than the other.

Team A would have allowed 70 yards out of a possible 90 yards while Team B would have allowed 20 yards out of a possible 50 yards. Team B was far better.

End of half drives/junk drives would be excluded.
 
I'm not really making a point about MU's defense or championing any stats.
I just thought it was interesting.

In a game like App St - they have 11 drives and 5 TDs / FG not a great stop rate
vs a Ga Southern game where they had 13 drives 3 TDs / FG
 
The top twenty scoring defenses are a combined 166-44 so far this season, so I wouldn’t consider it a junk stat. In that group, only Auburn, at #20 and 4-6, has a losing record.
 
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