We struggled with Albany. The funny thing was the line moved towards Albany 3 points by kickoff from 24.5 to 21.5. Vegas and the bettors knew what was about to happen. Now the line for ECU opened with Herd -1 and has already moved to -3. Considering we barely beat an FCS team, and ECU held Michigan to 30 points, you'd think this would open as ECU by a TD. If you are a betting man, put your house on the Herd.
Lock of the Weekend
- Thread starter CamJoanBaller
- Start date
1 - The purpose of a point spread is to keep the book balanced. To have an even amount of $$ bet on both sides of a proposition. The house makes a 10% vig on all bets. It wants to be able to not care who wins. Anyone who tells you "Vegas needs the Lions and the Bears this weekend" knows nothing about sports gambling.
2 - The handle on Marshall - Albany, worldwide, could not have been $10K. Most books do not even offer points spread bets on I-AA @ I-A games. Because the pool is so small, it does not take much money to get the book out of balance and cause an adjustment. It is not necessarily sharps doing this. More likely its is dumb money MU superfans.
3 - Again, the handle on something like MU @ ECU is not much, and it doesn't take much to move the line. Sports gambling is legal in WV, and not yet in NC, which just that fact can get the line out of whack. Only a handful of superfans can mess things up.
If you want to gamble it is MU -3 O/U 44.5 ML -155/+130. ECU was outmatched vs. Michigan, and we did not learn much from that. We learned a lot from the SUNY Albany game. ECU is a mid-pack team in the weak AAC, MU is one of the worst, least talented, most poorly coached teams in the division. Don't bet the house on this game, there is lots more value on the board elsewhere, but ECU moneyline and under are logical bets.
2 - The handle on Marshall - Albany, worldwide, could not have been $10K. Most books do not even offer points spread bets on I-AA @ I-A games. Because the pool is so small, it does not take much money to get the book out of balance and cause an adjustment. It is not necessarily sharps doing this. More likely its is dumb money MU superfans.
3 - Again, the handle on something like MU @ ECU is not much, and it doesn't take much to move the line. Sports gambling is legal in WV, and not yet in NC, which just that fact can get the line out of whack. Only a handful of superfans can mess things up.
If you want to gamble it is MU -3 O/U 44.5 ML -155/+130. ECU was outmatched vs. Michigan, and we did not learn much from that. We learned a lot from the SUNY Albany game. ECU is a mid-pack team in the weak AAC, MU is one of the worst, least talented, most poorly coached teams in the division. Don't bet the house on this game, there is lots more value on the board elsewhere, but ECU moneyline and under are logical bets.
Nah... the fact that it opened with MU as a road favorite after the embarassing performance against Albany is all i needed to know. I'll be back next week to gloat about better the -1 money line on the Herd.
100% correct here. The line means little here other than some money came in on Marshall quickly. If this was bama/UGA and it moved that much, you’d pay attention.
Vegas saw what we saw…a better team finally play to its level in the 2nd half. They expect us to repeat that from the kickoff.
Some correct, some incorrect.
If you think the money that moved this line came mainly from West Virginia, you couldn't be more wrong. Professional gamblers moved the line, just like they moved all the other lines that came out on Sunday.
what Sam lacks in knowledge he makes up for with confidence.
Sam...stay in your lane....stick to TV and trashing wvu....
I will give him this---> He definitely speaks his bullshit with a lot of conviction.
Well, his comment specifically about why lines change is absolutely correct. Vegas wants equal dollars on both teams in a game. if equal money then they collect that 10% on every bet. They move the line up and down during the week based on the betting to as best as they can to equal out the betting. It is all about Vegas collecting money, they care not who wins.
There actually are AI based computer things that sets the initial betting lines now and is adjusted by where the bets are going.
do we win by more than 1, I certainly hope we kick their asses. but that thought has nothing to do with the betting lines from vegas.
Wow. No one had any idea. Thanks to sam and grey wolf for explanation. What's next sky is blue?
I love being right when it comes to money. I also love when the Herd wins. But what I love most of all is making Sam eat his BS words. His full diatribe about Vegas, most of which was complete nonsense, just bit him in the ass.
Marshall covered their line by more than two TDs. I explained why is would happen. Eat my ass, and follow me for more weekly advice.
Marshall covered their line by more than two TDs. I explained why is would happen. Eat my ass, and follow me for more weekly advice.
@The Real SamC isn't due back to the board until tomorrow. In fact, someone post a thread about something WVU nonsense related so he has the excuse join that thread.
"WVU waxed Duquense, a far superior opponent to Albany"
I don't know that, nor do I care, but that would be a perfect start to a thread because he would literally give a 4 paragraph analysis on why that is not the case, and use the word "Spamite" at least twice, and reference how drunk Bob Huggins is at least once, even though it's a football thread. Then he would go on to mention how Herd "Superfans" are the problem with one sport, but that we should be content where we are in the other sport.
There... Done!
It looks like the Great Danes gave Hawaii all they wanted, losing by a respectable score of 31-20.
They are allowed to be a solid team. Why else play the game. But because they are Albany, they should automatically suck according to our fans.
Well, the comments led me to believe most of the posters had not clue how Vegas betting works. You I am assuming do with your comment, most comments had no clue how gambling on college football works.
Vegas is always going to win money. The most money they make come from games that balance out because of the odds on the house. Sports betting however is different. There is a human element. There are lots of factors that go into it that you can beat the house.
I am not going to go into details because no one really cares about my personal success. But what I can tell you is I make money on sports betting. Is it a lot? No, because I don't want to be a professional gambler and take those risks and pay those taxes. Its in the 5 figures a year though. But it is possible to beat the house. 63% is generally how I run throughout the year, and usually have one or two bets a week I go bigger on, like Herd last week. That was a big pay day. I also don't always win the lock of the week of course. But in general, it pays out a lot more than it doesn't especially when I go bigger on the locks than the other bets. And those locks are not motivated by my personal knowledge of a game, they are motivated by what hand Vegas is showing me. Last week Vegas showed the Herd as a favorite on the road against a team that held Michigan to 30 points while the Herd struggled to beat an FCS team. Why were we favored? I have no idea. But Vegas has an idea, and I like to listen to them.
By the way... this week's pick is in the NFL. The Broncos.
They lost to the Raiders. They're playing Washington who already won their game. The Broncos sucked last year. They lost their first game this year. Now they are favored by 3.5. If Vegas thinks its a tossup then it would have opened at 3. But 3.5 tells me they think the Broncos are a bigger favorite but they can't pull the trigger to make it -7.
Check back with me next week
For me, who has almost never bet on sports
(example: sitting in the VM Fieldhouse stoopidly wagering $20 on Cooney vs Holmes!)
, I just get too nervous when I have a bet on a game. Hats off to you who enjoy that feeling….
(example: sitting in the VM Fieldhouse stoopidly wagering $20 on Cooney vs Holmes!)
, I just get too nervous when I have a bet on a game. Hats off to you who enjoy that feeling….
If you hate losing money more than you like winning it, then gambling isn't smart. Nothing wrong with that.
You are not playing "the house". You are playing, as a part of the entire group, the group that bet on the other side of the proposition. Since you can bet either side of the proposition, there is no "house side". The house only wants the book balanced, nothing else.
What did we learn Saturday? Not much. ECU is awful, but the AAC is yet worse than it was before, so I have stayed away from betting in it, as far as season wins go. MU recovered from an abject failure of a game to put in a workman like performance vs. said awful team. VPI lost to Purdue, which means it also is way down, but still should be able to take care of its business.
We learned that I told you why Marshall was a lock and it ended up being an 18 point win, covering the spread by more than two TDs. I don't care about ECU's problems as it has nothing to do with why I bet the game. I bet the game because there are ways to know how to win money in Vegas. And I just showed you. Hope that helps
We learned that Sam doesn’t know anything about college football
What Sam lacks in knowledge he makes up for with confidence.
Not only did the Broncos not cover as favorites, they didn’t even win the game . . . and that’s with the benefit of completing a Hail-of-Mary at the end for a TD.
Yeah, I think we will pass on that.Check back with me next week
Vegas loves your type.
I love sports betting. I have great ideas as to locks and sure bets each week. I am very very bad at sports betting. My self awareness of statement #3 is why I am still married and not bankrupt.
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