HN went in-depth with an expert that covers MU's upcoming opponent. In this week's "Ask the Expert," we caught up with TheMidReport.com's Mike James to get his thoughts and perspective on Saturday's game in Annapolis.
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Talk a little bit about your expectations for this Navy team. 2020 was rough but 2019 produced an 11 win season and top 20 ranking.
It's hard to know what to expect out of Navy this year other than they will be better than last year. While COVID made for a strange season for everybody, nobody had it worse than Navy. Ken Niumatalolo, out of an abundance of caution, chose not to have any contact in practice during fall camp. Right or wrong, it left the Mids completely unprepared, and they never recovered.
This year, things are back to normal, so in theory, Navy should be back to normal as well. But will they be? Just as last year's situation was unprecedented, there's no blueprint for following up something like last year, either. The defense, at least, should be near the top of the American Athletic Conference. They were playing their best football at the end of last season and have returned a dozen players that started multiple games in 2020. The offense will be better too, but there are still too many unproven pieces to get a sense of how good they will be.
Even if Navy improves by leaps and bounds, the record might not reflect it. This year's schedule might be the toughest I've seen Navy face in the last 20 years. On top of replacing the usual FCS opener with Marshall, the Mids have a seven-game stretch where they face Notre Dame plus the top six teams in the AAC from 2020. Based on last year's winning percentage, Navy has the third-toughest schedule in the country. Winning percentage is a flawed metric, obviously, but it does show that the Mids have a tough hill to climb.
Who do you expect to see happen at quarterback for Navy?
It's difficult to say. Tai Lavatai is a bigger, stronger player with a live arm. Xavier Arline is smaller, but quicker and more elusive. Both of them have been getting first-team snaps in practice, and Niumatalolo isn't expected to name a starter before the game.
In a way, it doesn't really matter who the starter is. Navy is going to do what they do. The players' physical attributes aren't nearly as important as how well they can operate the offense. The guy who can check to the right play and make the right option read after the snap is the one who will start. Maybe Arline has a small advantage after getting starting experience last year, but if that's the case, the coaches haven't tipped their hand.
Where do you see Navy's real strength in this match-up? Where does Navy have the biggest edge?
Navy's biggest advantage is probably their front seven vs. Marshall's offensive line. There was a time when it looked like the Thundering Herd's o-line would be a strength, and it's not like they will be a weakness by any stretch this year. They've just had so much turnover recently. Navy's defense likes to bring pressure in all kinds of weird ways, and an offensive line that's not used to working together as a unit can have a difficult time with the communication necessary to pick up pass rushers. That's crucial if you want to keep a freshman quarterback from getting rattled.
This is nit-picky, though. With the experience that Marshall is returning, it's difficult to point out any true weaknesses.
What match-up concerns do you have both offensively and defensively for Navy against Marshall?
On the other hand, Marshall's defensive line could present just as much of a problem to the Navy offense. Even if they aren't the biggest guys on the field, the Marshall d-line is very athletic. Watching them last year, I was struck by how quick they are. They play low and shoot gaps. For a Navy offensive line coming off of the season they had last year, this will be an immediate test. And if there is any hesitation on the part of a young, inexperienced Navy quarterback, a player like Koby Cumberlander will track the play down from behind. If Navy can block Marshall, they'll likely be able to block anyone on the rest of the schedule.
What is your breakdown and score prediction for how this game might play out?
It's impossible to make an educated guess on this game. How Navy will perform, at least on offense, is a complete unknown. One interesting nugget is that Lance Guidry has a little bit of a history against the Navy offense. When he was the defensive coordinator at Western Kentucky in 2011, the Hilltoppers fell to the Mids, 40-14. For game-planning purposes, it would've been better for Navy if the game wasn't such a blowout. At least then the Navy coaches could expect to see the same defense out of Marshall and plan accordingly. Instead, Marshall's plan will be a mystery up until the first snap.
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Talk a little bit about your expectations for this Navy team. 2020 was rough but 2019 produced an 11 win season and top 20 ranking.
It's hard to know what to expect out of Navy this year other than they will be better than last year. While COVID made for a strange season for everybody, nobody had it worse than Navy. Ken Niumatalolo, out of an abundance of caution, chose not to have any contact in practice during fall camp. Right or wrong, it left the Mids completely unprepared, and they never recovered.
This year, things are back to normal, so in theory, Navy should be back to normal as well. But will they be? Just as last year's situation was unprecedented, there's no blueprint for following up something like last year, either. The defense, at least, should be near the top of the American Athletic Conference. They were playing their best football at the end of last season and have returned a dozen players that started multiple games in 2020. The offense will be better too, but there are still too many unproven pieces to get a sense of how good they will be.
Even if Navy improves by leaps and bounds, the record might not reflect it. This year's schedule might be the toughest I've seen Navy face in the last 20 years. On top of replacing the usual FCS opener with Marshall, the Mids have a seven-game stretch where they face Notre Dame plus the top six teams in the AAC from 2020. Based on last year's winning percentage, Navy has the third-toughest schedule in the country. Winning percentage is a flawed metric, obviously, but it does show that the Mids have a tough hill to climb.
Who do you expect to see happen at quarterback for Navy?
It's difficult to say. Tai Lavatai is a bigger, stronger player with a live arm. Xavier Arline is smaller, but quicker and more elusive. Both of them have been getting first-team snaps in practice, and Niumatalolo isn't expected to name a starter before the game.
In a way, it doesn't really matter who the starter is. Navy is going to do what they do. The players' physical attributes aren't nearly as important as how well they can operate the offense. The guy who can check to the right play and make the right option read after the snap is the one who will start. Maybe Arline has a small advantage after getting starting experience last year, but if that's the case, the coaches haven't tipped their hand.
Where do you see Navy's real strength in this match-up? Where does Navy have the biggest edge?
Navy's biggest advantage is probably their front seven vs. Marshall's offensive line. There was a time when it looked like the Thundering Herd's o-line would be a strength, and it's not like they will be a weakness by any stretch this year. They've just had so much turnover recently. Navy's defense likes to bring pressure in all kinds of weird ways, and an offensive line that's not used to working together as a unit can have a difficult time with the communication necessary to pick up pass rushers. That's crucial if you want to keep a freshman quarterback from getting rattled.
This is nit-picky, though. With the experience that Marshall is returning, it's difficult to point out any true weaknesses.
What match-up concerns do you have both offensively and defensively for Navy against Marshall?
On the other hand, Marshall's defensive line could present just as much of a problem to the Navy offense. Even if they aren't the biggest guys on the field, the Marshall d-line is very athletic. Watching them last year, I was struck by how quick they are. They play low and shoot gaps. For a Navy offensive line coming off of the season they had last year, this will be an immediate test. And if there is any hesitation on the part of a young, inexperienced Navy quarterback, a player like Koby Cumberlander will track the play down from behind. If Navy can block Marshall, they'll likely be able to block anyone on the rest of the schedule.
What is your breakdown and score prediction for how this game might play out?
It's impossible to make an educated guess on this game. How Navy will perform, at least on offense, is a complete unknown. One interesting nugget is that Lance Guidry has a little bit of a history against the Navy offense. When he was the defensive coordinator at Western Kentucky in 2011, the Hilltoppers fell to the Mids, 40-14. For game-planning purposes, it would've been better for Navy if the game wasn't such a blowout. At least then the Navy coaches could expect to see the same defense out of Marshall and plan accordingly. Instead, Marshall's plan will be a mystery up until the first snap.
