Nor will many others. NCAA will finally be forced to have a Division 1 championship playoff for a true NCAA National Champion and not ESPN or whomever.
Possibly more conference realignment coming
- Thread starter Jartard
- Start date
USC and UCLA really came out of nowhere. The Pac-12 seemed pretty stable. Yeah, they weren't making nearly as much as the rest, but their conference wasn't really in turmoil (at least publicly) as others.
The Big 10 is now the new Conference USA in terms of legitimately stretching across the map, from New Jersey to Southern California.
The Big 10 is now the new Conference USA in terms of legitimately stretching across the map, from New Jersey to Southern California.
I could see this ending in 8 total conferences... If the Big12 can scavenge the Pac12 and stay alive, thus killing the Pac12. The MAC, SBC and MWC could take the 4-5 CUSA teams that give a shit about football and kill of CUSA.
P4 -- SEC, Big10, Big12, ACC
G4 -- AAC, MWC, SBC, MAC
Eight leagues with 16 teams makes a lot of sense... Would also make expanding the playoff in 2026 pretty easy (especially because the PAC12 was the most vocal league against doing it last year).
that is an interesting take on the consolidation. Pac12 will raid the MWC to survive - no way Oregon or Washington will step down from P5 to G5/G4.
I look for the new group to drop NCAA and have their own governing body. The leftovers will be in whatever the NCAA comes up with. As it looks now, you could have the SEC, B1G and Big 12 going to 20 teams. Easy west or North South with 10 game schedule with Two crossovers. Playoffs, top two in each division with two wildcards and you have an eight team playoff. 60 teams in the super league. ACC and rest gets picked apart. Maybe Vandy , Rutgers and Norhwestern is dropped? Who knows. What would be interesting is if they had a relegation system where teams could work themselves up into the super league or drop themselves out like the futball leagues in Europe.
They wouldn't have to, the musical chairs would just need to be halted for the Cinci's and UCFs of the world... Because I have had too much time to think about this yesterday.
SEC (16) -- Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Missouri, SC, Florida, Vandy, Bama, Auburn, LSU, Texas AM, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Mississippi State
ACC (16) -- Boston College, Syracuse, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, NC State, Wake Forest, Duke, UNC, Georgia Tech, Miami, Pitt, Virginia Tech, Baylor, Texas Tech
BIg10 (16) -- Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Maryland, Rutgers, Indiana, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Purdue, Nebraska, Northwestern, USC, UCLA
Big12 (16) -- Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Kansas State, West Virginia, TCU, Kansas, Utah, Oregon, Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State, Stanford, Cal, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State
AAC (16) -- Cinci, Houston, UCF, East Carolina, Tulsa, SMU, Memphis, Navy, South Florida, Tulane, Charlotte, Army, Rice, UAB, FAU, Sam Houston State
SBC (16) -- Marshall, App State, Old Dominion, JMU, Coastal, Georgia Southern, Ga. State, FIU, Lafayette, Monroe, Troy, South Alabama, Arkansas State, Texas State, Southern Miss, La. Tech
MWC (16) -- Utah State, Air Force, Boise State, Wyoming, Colorado State, New Mexico, UNLV, Nevada, Hawaii, San Jose State, San Diego State, Fresno State, New Mexico State, UTEP, North Texas, UTSA
MAC (16) -- Miami Oh, Bowling Green, Northern Illinois, Ohio, Eastern Michigan, Western Michigan, Central Michigan, Akron, Kent State, Buffalo, Toledo, Ball State, Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee, Liberty, Temple
Notre Dame and BYU stay independent... Pac12 and CUSA are gone.
Call ESPN and get this done, my admin fee is negotiable, lol
Us, Cincy, and UCF arent going back to the AAC you dummy. BYU already paid out money for the games they cancelled since they won't be independent anymore.
Nobody wants Washington State or Oregon State.
Army has made it clear several times that they will never join the AAC or any football conference again.
I know you're jealous Marshall got sent packing to the Sun Belt while UH, UCF and Cincy went to the Big 12 but be realistic.
First, go back to the AAC?... You haven't left yet... That's the premise.
I don't know how to tell you this partner, but Houston, UCF and every other school not already in the SEC/Big10 will be doing whatever the TV folks tell them to do... Don't kid yourself.
Also, never said this was realistic, just a way to make the numbers work with 8 conferences of 16 teams.
Don't kid yourself. Houston, and the others were all resoundingly rejected the first time around, which really exposed the financial gap the Big 12 is about to have. Regardless if 10 more teams join, they'll never recover the financial loss of UT and OU...or just even compare to the SEC and Big 10.
Doubtful Big 10 and SEC stick to 16. They're looking at UVA, Oregon, Washington, and others in the ACC, same with the SEC.
I think they'll go to 20-24 schools.
What is really interesting is the ACC can't let anyone leave, but never said they couldn't invite anyone.
Makes you wonder how much added value a Cincy or wvu really gives (or doesn't) to their conference.
Obviously Notre Dame makes sense for them, but it's obvious the Big 10 is going to pressure ND to join them because they'll be left out of the CFP unless they are...and those two conferences run the damn thing.
Its definitely a house of cards hanging on about 4-5 programs as far as the ACC goes... Talk radio down here has been all about the options.
Best case scenario for the ACC is Notre Dame becomes a full member and they can add one more to get to 16 (for now)... WVU, Cinci, make geographic sense, no idea if they make money sense.
Worst case scenario for the ACC is that the SEC comes out tomorrow and says they are taking Clemson, Florida State, Miami and Virginia (or VT)... Then it would be full on scramble mode for the league to survive.
Geography clearly has gone out the window, lol...I'm just wondering is UCLA is ready for a late November game in Minnesota.
This is now about markets and money.
Places like wvu are in some serious trouble as they offer virtually nothing by comparison to everyone else...no major media market, no big academic prowess, no real recognizable sports programs, and no major city.
It wouldn't shock me if the NCAA just told the ACC and Pac-12 their P5 status was revoked since their value would be so tremendously lower than everyone else's.
The ACC Grants of Rights makes it difficult for those schools to leave.
UVA and a few other ACC schools would be more inclined to join the B1G because of academics. The B1G makes much more off its academic collaborations than they do from sports. That's what adding schools to that conference is about.
It's about money and markets for the Big 10. Yes, they pretty much mandate an AAU status for even consideration, but they also went to USC and UCLA...the Pac-12...as in the Pacific Ocean...for membership.
If Notre Dame is to join the Big 10, they will be making an academic exception as Notre Dame is (somehow, for whatever reason) NOT part of the AAU.
They aren't a part of the AAU because they don't put a huge emphasis on research.
I agree on the PAC12 for sure... I don't see any way they survive, and if they do (as a glorified Mountain West) they won't be at the grown up table. If the Big12 really comes out and takes Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado, Cal and Stanford the PAC12 is no more... Oregon and Washington would immediately jump to the Big10... Oregon State and Washington State would be F'd and do one of two things -- Join the MWC, or recruit the entire MWC to join their "new Pac12" using the name and logos, thus ending the MWC.
Give it a rest.
Anyway, no body is going to give a token spot to a G5 team in a playoff. Nobody wants to see Alabama or Clemson crush Boise or Memphis in the first round, every year, over and over.
As to the P5 (so called)
ACC - The teams have sold their media rights to the league through 2035. Cannot leave. This includes Notre Dame’s basketball and the rest, although they have enough cash to buy those back, not nearly as much money.
SEC - Really its set, unless the B10 wants to go for 20, they are good. The Greatest Conference.
B10 - Do they want more, and how long do they wait on UND? After them, what? More P12 leftovers?
B12 - Really a middle league, lower than the now big three. Lot like the last version of the Leastleftovers. Nothing to offer, other than Kansas basketball.
P12 - Joins the B12 as a middle conference. Probably grab UNLV.
G5 - THIS is what G5 football is: Play a season, go to a ginned up bowl game, generally vs. another G5. If that cannot satisfy you, then MU football is not for you. Find something else.
Anyway, no body is going to give a token spot to a G5 team in a playoff. Nobody wants to see Alabama or Clemson crush Boise or Memphis in the first round, every year, over and over.
As to the P5 (so called)
ACC - The teams have sold their media rights to the league through 2035. Cannot leave. This includes Notre Dame’s basketball and the rest, although they have enough cash to buy those back, not nearly as much money.
SEC - Really its set, unless the B10 wants to go for 20, they are good. The Greatest Conference.
B10 - Do they want more, and how long do they wait on UND? After them, what? More P12 leftovers?
B12 - Really a middle league, lower than the now big three. Lot like the last version of the Leastleftovers. Nothing to offer, other than Kansas basketball.
P12 - Joins the B12 as a middle conference. Probably grab UNLV.
G5 - THIS is what G5 football is: Play a season, go to a ginned up bowl game, generally vs. another G5. If that cannot satisfy you, then MU football is not for you. Find something else.
The B1G has already told Oregon and Washington that it is holding off on adding anymore teams. So they are not guaranteed a spot in the conference.
That's why I think 4 large conferences will survive (for now at least)... The Big10, SEC, ACC and Big12 should just kill off the Pac12... The rumor I saw this morning is the Big12 is already discussing going to 18 or 20 teams and adding 6-8 of the remaining Pac12 teams. The names they mentioned were Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah and Colorado, with Cal and Stanford being next in line if they add 8.
That would just leave Oregon State and Washington State (the least valuable schools in the Pac12) looking for a home.
I just don't see the Pac12 allowing their conference to evaporate. Big12 made a play, so I am guessing Pac12 will try to make a play too. We will see...
I don't think they are going to have a choice... The Pac12 is the least valuable of the P5 leagues, they just begged to renegotiate their TV deal early (as soon as USC/UCLA left) and their new deal is going to be even further behind the other four. If they could somehow manage to keep their 10 current programs around, and try to add someone, there is no program that adds anywhere near the value they've lost (Boise, UNLV, San Diego State, Air Force, etc).
The PAC12 should be on the phone with Phil Knight begging for solidarity every day. If Oregon/Washington leave they can turn out the lights, the party's over.
And Awful Announcing, which is usually very accurate, reports that the PAC 10 Leftovers will close the Pac 12 Network, which, because of the previous commissioner’s incompetence, never was on DirecTV, which is 100% necessary for a sports channel.
ESPN will then convert the ACC Network into a combined network for both leagues. Leaving the middle one, the Big 12 Leftovers and move-ups, as the only of the former “power 5” leagues without a dedicated network, The middle one.
Of course this is based on ESPN getting the bulk of the Pac 10 Leftovers rights in the new deal.
Another story floating around is that 4 to 6 of the Big 12 Leftovers will move to the Pac 10 Leftovers, leaving the move ups, and WVU and Iowa State, applying to the AAC. Which is where WVU has belonged all along.
ESPN will then convert the ACC Network into a combined network for both leagues. Leaving the middle one, the Big 12 Leftovers and move-ups, as the only of the former “power 5” leagues without a dedicated network, The middle one.
Of course this is based on ESPN getting the bulk of the Pac 10 Leftovers rights in the new deal.
Another story floating around is that 4 to 6 of the Big 12 Leftovers will move to the Pac 10 Leftovers, leaving the move ups, and WVU and Iowa State, applying to the AAC. Which is where WVU has belonged all along.
I previously said the Pac-12 was going to poach the Big 12, since the Pac-12 is kind of like the MAC of the P5...not valuable at all, but very stable historically and geographically.
I was wrong. It was the complete opposite.
Even with the Big 12 being upwards of 18 teams, it still won't come close to the amount the Big 10 and SEC are going to make.
That's why I think the true use of the words, "Power Conference" is going to be used for just the Big 10 and SEC.
I imagine the Big 10 and SEC commissioners have a complete list of the values of every school out there, and have just checked/selected the top off of each one going down. Essentially having the very valuable schools only...and some of the financial gaps are very, very large.
TV money between the Big 12 and SEC is going to be noticeably different.
"I am insulted, Pac-12, you greeted me this morning but did not greet my money, that's very rude!"
-Phil Knight
IheartSportsRadio just reported on the Clemson radio station while I was on my lunch break that "SEC officials" are having a conference call tomorrow to discuss potential further expansion of the league... The four teams being targeted -- Clemson, UNC, Florida State, Miami.
If that happens, the ACC and Pac12 are suddenly in similar predicaments.
I wonder what sort of potential "threshold" there is in what makes a conference a "Power" conference. Does there need be some sort of annual revenue or something?
If the ACC does lose those schools, and Notre Dame goes to the Big 10, what schools, if any, are going to even come close to making the money to keep the ACC afloat?
Of course I am just guessing here... But from a business standpoint, if I am looking at acquiring another business, I want to look at their internal financials. Which in terms of college football would be things like total endowment, athletic dept. budget, TV market size/marketability, merchandise rights/branding, enrollment/alumni base, ticket sales/stadium revenue for the two major sports and any niche sports that particular school may be good at (soccer, baseball, women's hoops, etc). And on the other side of the ledger, any outstanding liabilities that school/athletic department may have.
I'm sure there are way more things that are going into who gets into the SEC and Big10 than those I mentioned, but those are where I would start. A "power" conference in my mind would include schools at the top of those categories, so I would say Clemson, FSU, Miami and UNC would certainly be the top four ACC programs in terms of "value" or "power."
As far as who the ACC could backfill with to replace those four teams... The short answer is - They can't... You can't lose your four "premier" programs and replace them with the same caliber. I would think the ACC would immediately call teams like UCF (huge school, gotta keep a Florida presence), WVU (if the Big12 and Pac12 merge, Morgantown is an outlier), Cinci (same reason as WVU)... And from there its a crapshoot because no one else offers a lot of "value" - Navy, Tulane, Memphis, SMU, ECU, etc.
If the ACC loses its big four programs and is no longer a "power" conference... It creates four clear tiers in FBS football.
Tier 1 -- SEC, Big10
*** HUGE GAP ***
Tier 2 -- ACC, Big12/Pac12
*** Small gap ***
Tier 3 -- AAC, MWC, SBC
*** Small gap ***
Tier 4 -- MAC, CUSA
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SBC is really no better than the MAC. I know we want to think that because that is the conference we are in, but top to bottom they are very similar. There is a couple of teams every year that are the leaders of the conference and a bunch of also rans. The top schools also change based on the sport. That is the same for both conferences. There is only a few schools in either conference that if you are not a fan of that school, you even care about or would bother changing the channel to watch them. SBC is DEFINATELY better than staying in CUSA but was not much of an upgrade in competition from CUSA 2.0 of what ever version we were just in.
If you remember, we used to belittle the SBC and say they were fighting with the MAC for the bottom.
Just win the conference in every sport that we can and be happy with the cards that are dealt us.
Just talking about football, the primary differences are trajectory and perception. Over the past decade SBC football quality has improved while the MAC has declined. Which has been reflected in end of season team/conference rankings.
Also, the SBC has been proactive during realignment and improved its stance by adding teams that fit its brand, which has been widely applauded in the media and by fans. The MAC has reinforced its Ohio/Michigan bunker and done nothing.
What's left of CUSA is a dumpster fire, so it probably deserves a tier all to itself.
The MAC, I pray, will be relegated to FCS, and they'll stand there, hand in hand, and do ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.
As said, the SBC has done substantially more in a shorter period of time, to make it a premiere G5 conference.
The MAC literally does nothing to build any momentum it ever had.
I can't think of the last MAC school who was legitimately spoken of in the media, while the SBC had: CCU, App State, and Louisiana.
The MAC's last three nationally "relevant" teams...
2018 -- Buffalo... Started the year 9-1 and got ranked... Lost 3-of-4 to end the year, including a bowl game to Troy.
2016 -- Western Michigan... 13-1, lost in a BCS game to Wisconsin. Coach jumped ship, back to irrelevance.
2014 -- No. Illinois... 11-2 Mac Champs, ranked... Got it handed to them 52-23 by Rakeem Cato and the Herd in Boca Raton.
