Even still, I think WVU will survive and remain a member of one of the power conferences.
To make an analogy (not to argue politics) I had a friend who was a strong democrat. His analysis of EVERY election for EVERY office EVERY time was "the democrats will get 100% of the votes". He was analyizing with his heart, not facts and logic.
Fact is WVU offers very little in the next realignment. The same reasons the ACC, SEC, and Big 10 rejected them last time remain, and most get worse every single day.
- WV is the smallest state to have a team in the so called "power 5". In fact, only 3 states have even "group of 5" teams and are smaller, and in two of those the school in question is the only public college in the state.
- WV lost more people in the previous 5 years than any other state. War on coal. This trend is going to continue, no matter who wins the election, or the one after that, or the one after that. And, the actual decline is greater than the raw numbers, as growth in the EP (of people who are a, not natives, and b, not of the pliant intellect to fall for WVU's act) offsets the loss of typical Spamtards in the main part of WV.
- WV's media market is a mess. There is only one full DMA. H-C, and almost 1/3rd of it is in KY or OH (and the region where MU has the most traction). The rest of the state consists of amateur hour stations and lack all four networks, and sell ads to feed stores for $/holler. Almost 25% of the state, including technically Morgantown, gets its TV from out of state, in DMAs where the WV part is trivial compared to the whole, especially in the huge DC market. Moreover the state is split between three baseball loyalities (Reds, Pirates, and Nat/Os) and thus three different and seperatly owned regional sports networks (Fox's FS Ohio, AT&T's ROOT Pittsburgh, and the duo of Comcast's CSN MA and the team owned MASN). Very little to offer.
- WVU has been spectacularly unsuccessful in its move from the mid-major Big East to the Big 12, especially in football, which is what really matters.
- WVU's sports marketing plan had been, for decades, to beat the assorted cupcakes of the old Big East and tell its insualr fan base that this was something. Selling 7-5 or 8-4 as a "great year" , and that is all WVU can ever achieve at that level is a different sell. The seats are starting to empty. It is going to get worse. Year after year after year of being assreamed gets old, especially to a crowd that still ACTUALLY BELIEVES it was a national power back in the day when it owned South Florida and UConn.
- Like most colleges, WVU's corporate donor base has been its state's industries. That means coal. War on coal. And what comes after, which is old folks homes and rehab clinics are not going to donate to WVU sports.
- WVU has open admissions. That is darn near unique among the so called power 5. That really does matter, especially to the Big 10. But even to the ACC and SEC.
- And, to tie those two things together, WVU's marketing plan to students has been pretty simple. Take the state's massive over-funding (from coal taxes) and massively subsidize tuition and thus offer a quasi big time sports experience and a large college experience to C- students from the northeast. War on coal. The state is finally slashing WVU budget. This is just the start. At some point. WVU just will not have the $$ to make itself the ultra bargin it has always been to the drunken sons and daughters of the Garden State.
Fact is, as dumb a move as moving up to the true major level was (the Spamite fan base would have been happy to argue that THE AMERICAN = SEC, just as they always did with the Leastleftovers) WVU was very lucky to get in the 5th of the 5 so called power 5. Nobody else wanted them. And the next realignment is coming, when the TV deals run out again, and when it does, we are all in, no matter what they call it, the second division.
MU knows how to make sports work at the level. WVU? Who knows?