Why are you here?
Total fixation.
Its obvious, SamC, when an EER's sister-wife cuts him off, he wanders over to a Herd board. Just part of their inbred lifestyle, I guess!!
Why are you here?
Total fixation.
Take aways:
.........
- The Big 10 just signed a new TV deal. FOR FAR LESS MONEY than it wanted, and for only 6 (it wanted 15) years. The Big 10 was the last of the "power 5" to sign a new TV deal. It is 100% correct to understand that the TV bubble is bursting, if not already burst. EVERY conference, perhaps except the SEC, is looking at LESS money from TV going forward. Memo to all of your THE AMERICAN!!!!!! lovers: The AAC contract runs out in 2020, at which time this random collection of fan-less teams will get the same type of deal that the other "group of 5" leagues have, probably less in that nobody much cares about the schools anyway.
Sam,
just wondering how you evaluate the FOX / Big Ten deal......the $250 million / per year is the biggest TV deal in the history of College Sports for one conference, AND it for only one-half of the package!!!!!! Big Ten is now negotiating with ESPN for the other half, and don't be surprised if CBS or Turner or even NBC from what I'm hearing step up with a sizeable offer and better ESPN's offer.
This deal with FOX "shook" and shocked the industry!!! Look for the other P5's to ask their partners to reopen their contracts based on a new market standard. The price of sitting at the poker table just went up dramatically!!
I'm very interested on how you analyzed this to come to your conclusion!! The 6 year term was a little surprising given Fox's position with the Big Ten Network, but otherwise the yearly value of the deal will be off the charts!!!
Your assessment of AAC probable fortunes in the next negotiation is based much more on your dislike for the league than any reality. They will likely enjoy a major increase in revenue in the next negotiation, EVEN if they lose 2 schools as many believe will happen this summer. G5 deals are being depressed, no doubt, by the sheer size of the P5 rights, but the AAC will grow their deal........ keep this assessment on your computer and feel free to reference it in 2020
Is it that easy for the other P5 conferences to break their contracts based solely on a competitor getting a much larger deal?
Is Turner now looking to get into the College Football world?
Shoe, I am not an industry insider. I just know what I read in the financial papers and the broadcast papers say that it was way below what they wanted and expected to get. I don't know. If you say different, then there we go. Most analyists had a different opinion.
I do think there is something to all of this a la carte and cord cutter stuff. I am no completely sold on it, but there is something to it. Fact is the old model was pretty simple and pretty lucrative for Disney. "Everybody" has cable (dish, whatever) and "everybody" paid huge $$ for ESPN (and now its immitators). But, really there are lots of people who just don't like sports at all. Given their druthers lots of people would simply rather pay $30 less and not have any sports channels. Now IF (huge if, probably the largest if in the broadcast business there is, truly a multi-billion $ if) a new model can be made to work, then there simply is a lot less $$ coming in the door at Disney, et al, and thus a lot less passing back out to the leagues, conferences, and pro players. That is the main reason ESPN has been cutting out a lot of its dead weight, on both sides of the camera.
Now, as to the AAC, I have no "hate" of it. I don't like its arrogant and idiocy spewing commissioner. Arguing your case is one thing, saying things so d*** dumb that you lose all crediability is another and this is where the AAC management is. And I don't like the people that fall for its act that it is something more than just another of the G5. Including those who try to extrapolate a single game in October into 10000X more than it was. CUSA, the AAC and the MWC are more or less the same, with the other two a step or two behind. That is reality.
As to TV, IF (and remember what I said about the size of that if) things are in a downward spiral for ESPN, et al, then, IMHO, this is where the AAC (and even moreso the MAC) have a fatal flaw. They have sold their soul to TV. Playing on random weeknights has just killed their live gate (to the extent they had one in the first place). And, like it or not, fact is there is not an AAC team that is even the most popular team in their own town. That is just a fact, like it or not. UC does not = the Cincy DMA like OSU = the Columbus DMA (in fact, OSU probably has 1000 fans in Cincy for every 1 UC does). It just is what it is. It seems to me that the AAC's value (say the same for the MAC) to ESPN is for a quite short time period. From the end of regular season baseball thru Thanksgiving. That is 8 or 10 weeknights to fill. Some sharp pencil guy has to sit down, and with less $$ coming in, decide if they really want to pay this crowd for X rating when they could get Y rating for esentually nothing with midnight poker or 30 for30. X - Y = a figure, and i suspect it really is not that much, given the fanless nature of the AAC in its local markets, the low # of viewers who are at home on Fridays, and the NFL now completly taking over Thursdays.
In any event, the AAC is losing two teams? I could be a smarta** and ask why anyone would want to move from one of the "Power 6" as conf. HQ says it is, to another, but I won't. So Texas and Oklahoma are looking to add two more cupcakes to the box? If I am them, I don't see why you don't look at BYU and, if this Raiders deal comes through, UNLV, before any of these fanless teams. But that is a discussion for another day. All I hope that if the AAC does lose teams, MH has the sense to have Arseco escorted off University property when he brings his snake oil by.
Sam,
Mike Aresco
The AAC is likely to lose 2 teams, no doubt, Cincy is almost a lock:
Houston (the choice of my lunch partner)
SMU
Memphis
UConn
UCF
ECU
So Florida
Your observations on schools not "owning" their markets, while right on the money, simply isn't a consideration when concerned with cable penetration and building a "channel"...... its much more about wired homes than about viewers..... that's the cable model.
The bigger issue for Marshall fans is that defections from the AAC would likely strip CUSA of two of its more attractive members and make no mistake about this..... no less than 4 of its membership is auditioning currently (or trying to) and several others are dusting off their resumes....... a couple haven't even had time for their resumes to gather dust.
As to the Big 10, one does not need to hype the SEC. The SEC is what it is, and that is awsome. ESPN could give it the same treatment it gives CUSA, the NHL, and all the other sports it does not own, and it still would be the highest rated game of the week, most every week.
With the SEC at 3:30 every week, there is no room for the Big 10 there. The virtually content free CBSSN is a different story, but CBS has never shown any interest in building it up.
NBC has Notre Dame and has good counter-programming with golf, eurosoccer, car racing, and like that.
I think it would actually be cheaper to buy season tickets and tickets to the road games than what is spent on a yearly cable bill.But yet, Fox is not doing well either. We're screwed either way. Folks are tired of forking over money to watch sports anymore. I am a huge sports fan and as competitive as hell, but I've never paid a dime for special sports package. Not worth it to me.
The point is that Cincy likely will deliver the entire state in a cable model network, forget about their actual position in their own market. Remember too, they would be playing Texas, OK, KU, KSU, WVU, TCU etc., and their following would increase with the quantum leap in schedule quality. All of the sudden too, OSU v Cincy (as in Ohio State) becomes a great in-state game for OSU pitting a Big XII vs. a Big Ten.
They will go where the money is, simple as that!!! You are way overthinking any issues. There was real rift between the two going into the last contract negotiations (that rift no longer exists, btw) and still EPSN got the entire "A" package.........its all about the money!!The latest rumors I am hearing is that the B10 doesnt necessarily want to stay on ESPN. The main reason is the scripted lines the commentators on the channel used to pimp the SEC, at the expense of the B10. So, they are rumored to be in heavy negotiations with NBC and CBS.
Of the four mentioned there I'd say the likelihood of their joining the Big 12 as:
1) BYU
2) Cincinnati
3) Memphis
4) Boise State
One not named that I would add is Colorado State.
the b12 would have to make some concessions to add byu, they wouldn't have to do so to add any of the others. i also wouldn't count out houston.
Boise State is, one, heading for probation; two, in North Dumptruck, Idaho; and, three, a community college.
Sam, where did you get that Utah is the fastest growing state and that it represents the fastest growing religion?
From the, umm, Census Bureau. In 1960 Utah had 890K people. Today it has 2.9 MILLION.
That Mormonism is the fastest growing religion in the USA is only disputed by the islamists who wish to treat "islam" as one religion, ignoring the plethora of different sects, which is like saying "Christian" is all one religion.
That Boise State is the least academic school in all of I-A is not disputable. What it "makes Marshall" is a really stupid question. Marshall is a solid broad based mid-sized university that is getting more broad based every year and conducting more research every year. Boise State teaches truck driving. Not that there is one thing in the world wrong with truck driving, but give me a break. It is a community college teaching community college subjects.
I am sorry you are ashamed to have attended Marshall. I am not. Out.
I think that you are very correct, my folks told cable and satellite to go to hell, and if I had that choice I would too. Who the hell wants to watch the gay channels and LMN, Lifetime?? Anyways, get back to my point. There is one obstacle that prevents me from going that direction and I cant say its the same for every hi speed internet provider. I have Comcast here in SW Va and use their hi speed interest. They just recently set a usage limit that resets each month. If you go over the limit they start charging for every gigabyte you use which gets very expensive. I have to watch how much hulu, netlifx etc that I watch because they take considerable amount of usage.ESPN got "fat" by commanding the lion's share of revenue from cable/satellite contracts while being a "requirement" in the base packages. every day thousands of people are "cutting the cord". people are sick of paying $100 a month to watch 5 channels while being forced to pay for the other 95. Sling TV just opened a beta package. you can pay $20 a month for their regular lineup that includes ESPN/ESPN2 or you can pay $20 a month, drop ESPN/ESPN2 and GAIN 6 other channels. most of your big stations are now offering monthly subscriptions. anybody with internet can now get all the HBO channels for $15 a month. there are millions of people in this country that couldn't care less about ESPN, and now they have options to get TV service without footing these ridiculous sports network contracts...
within the next 5-10 years you will be able to directly pay the stations you want for content. that will be the final nail in the "bubble"...
LOL! You watch the Big 12 will add Cinnci Colorado State and UCONN.
Make WVu great again! LOL!!!!
I can read the release now.
(AP) Morgantown - today the big 12 added UCONN UC and CSU. In an effort to make certain wvwho stays decent bowl eligible and not have to play at 2AM EST cactus up your arse bowl because Coach Holgs is usually passed out by then. Said wvwho AD we feel this move will make wvu great again!
Im coach holgs and I approved this message!