Why we still have a decent shot at the Access Bowl
- Thread starter andy4theherd
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Keep that marker handy, Andy (see what I did there). And, I hope you mark so many off Saturday, you run it out of ink.
yes, because the combined "focus" of message board posters has won many games throughout history....
edited OP to add "games to watch"
People seem to forget that WKU is also going to help us if we beat them...considering the hype they have had and their body of work by mutilating teams they've played. They are about the best team we will see all season...and throw in either LT or Southern Miss as our opponent, assuming they don't lose till they play us...would make for a real good case in our favor for that access spot.
As said multiple times, only 1 AAC team makes it...and if that champion has 2-3 losses and we win out...it's very possible we could argue for the access bowl...
As said multiple times, only 1 AAC team makes it...and if that champion has 2-3 losses and we win out...it's very possible we could argue for the access bowl...
An AAC conference champion with two losses or less would be picked ahead of us for certain... We need an almost ridiculous amount of games to fall our way to get an Access spot.
What is more likely if we win out is that we end up playing whoever finishes second or third from the AAC in Miami. A potential 12-1 Marshall vs. 10-2 Memphis or 10-2 Temple could be a fun game and put us against a ranked opponent in a bowl for the second straight year.
What is more likely if we win out is that we end up playing whoever finishes second or third from the AAC in Miami. A potential 12-1 Marshall vs. 10-2 Memphis or 10-2 Temple could be a fun game and put us against a ranked opponent in a bowl for the second straight year.
yup, the remaining games on our schedule do nothing but help our case.
we only need 3 games to go our way to knock the AAC out. Temple loses 2 of it's 4 remaining games and then wins the championship game. that gives them 3 loses. no way that tops a 12-1 Marshall team on an 11 game win streak with that almighty coveted victory over a P5 school...
another AAC scenario would be Temple losing 2-3 games and putting Cincy or USF in the title game. either wins the championship. Cincy currently has 3 losses and USF has 4. again, no way that would top Marshall at the end of the season.
we only need 3 games to go our way to knock the AAC out. Temple loses 2 of it's 4 remaining games and then wins the championship game. that gives them 3 loses. no way that tops a 12-1 Marshall team on an 11 game win streak with that almighty coveted victory over a P5 school...
another AAC scenario would be Temple losing 2-3 games and putting Cincy or USF in the title game. either wins the championship. Cincy currently has 3 losses and USF has 4. again, no way that would top Marshall at the end of the season.
So basically, root for Cincy...
They don't have any marquee wins...one of them would be over the AAC finalist who would likely be ranked...but that's it.
Well, if you count Miami, but that isn't even that impressive anymore.
They don't have any marquee wins...one of them would be over the AAC finalist who would likely be ranked...but that's it.
Well, if you count Miami, but that isn't even that impressive anymore.
Temple looking like they've got SMU put away. They clinch the East if they beat USF next week and that would just about finish off our hopes.
They gave up 40 to SMU. 1-8 SMU. I don't want to hear the shit about the AAC or Temple being solid again. Why? James Madison 48 SMU 45.
yea. i think that game may hurt more than help. if they drop 1 to Memphis (very likely) or UConn they are probably done even with an AAC championship...
If Temple is the AAC champion and their two losses are to Notre Dame and Memphis they will be the rep for the Access game... Last nights showing against SMU may not have helped them in the eyes of poll voters, but it ended in a Win and that certainly won't help us in any way.
I just don't believe we wouldn't have the same record we do now if we were in the AAC this year. Only 2 teams worth a damn, and the rest are garbage.
maybe, maybe not. Houston currently has a SoS ranked 124 compared to our 151...
So, a couple of games to keep an eye on today
would be Cincy @ UH & Navy @Memphis...correct?
would be Cincy @ UH & Navy @Memphis...correct?
yup. and Utah State at NM. if Utah wins out the regular season, Boise is eliminated. i updated the original post with games of note.
If we win out, don't we still take the East?
We beat WKu and FIU we have 1 conference loss, as would they...but overall record-wise, we have that in our favor?
We beat WKu and FIU we have 1 conference loss, as would they...but overall record-wise, we have that in our favor?
yes, we would win the East.
something to note, WKU beat MTSU a couple of weeks ago 58-28 (up 52-14 at the half) and LA Tech (who we would likely play in the Championship) beat them last week 45-16 (up 35-10 at the half).
updated OP... yea, we really have no shot but at least we can have more salt for our wounds when all this pans out...
Memphis is done
Temple is done
Boise is done
Navy and Houston play each other with winner guaranteed spot in AACC. Temple clinches spot in AACC with win over UConn. If they lose USF or Cincy will get in. AAC would have been eliminated from the Access bowl with a Temple/USF/Cincy win over Navy/Houston in championship game.
That just leaves Toledo and Bowling Green. They play each other thus eliminating the loser. If Toledo beats BG and NIU wins out (WMU, Ohio) then BG and Toledo are both out as Toledo would be eliminated from MACC.
we just needed to make a FG against MTSU............
Memphis is done
Temple is done
Boise is done
Navy and Houston play each other with winner guaranteed spot in AACC. Temple clinches spot in AACC with win over UConn. If they lose USF or Cincy will get in. AAC would have been eliminated from the Access bowl with a Temple/USF/Cincy win over Navy/Houston in championship game.
That just leaves Toledo and Bowling Green. They play each other thus eliminating the loser. If Toledo beats BG and NIU wins out (WMU, Ohio) then BG and Toledo are both out as Toledo would be eliminated from MACC.
we just needed to make a FG against MTSU............
If Houston drops 1 to UConn, Navy beats Houston to make the title game...then loses to Cincy or beats whomever, then loses to Army...
We win out with beating 2 good teams and winning our conference...it could create quite a shakeup.
The CFP group even has special protocol for the Army/Navy game...so if Navy wins but loses that game, especially to a terrible Army team, it really could affect our chances.
We win out and see what happens is about all that can happen now.
We win out with beating 2 good teams and winning our conference...it could create quite a shakeup.
The CFP group even has special protocol for the Army/Navy game...so if Navy wins but loses that game, especially to a terrible Army team, it really could affect our chances.
We win out and see what happens is about all that can happen now.
Andy, you fail to note that MTSU played both WKU and LA Tech ON THE ROAD, so comparing what we did against MTSU is a little "dangerous". After all, neither of those teams had to contend on the road with that huge, raucous throng at "Red" Floyd Stadium like the Herd did!!
we still some kind of chance...
if USF win the AAC. they currently have 4 loses and zero shot at the Access Bowl. that eliminates Houston, Memphis, Temple, and Navy by way of not winning the conference championship.
for that to happen Temple needs to lose to Memphis or UConn and USF needs to beat Cincy and UCF.
that would leave the MAC with Bowling Green (8-2) and Toledo (8-1). they play each other so loser is out. best case is Toledo to beat BG and NIU win out (WMU and Ohio) as that would keep Toledo from even playing in the championship game thus knocking them out.
if USF win the AAC. they currently have 4 loses and zero shot at the Access Bowl. that eliminates Houston, Memphis, Temple, and Navy by way of not winning the conference championship.
for that to happen Temple needs to lose to Memphis or UConn and USF needs to beat Cincy and UCF.
that would leave the MAC with Bowling Green (8-2) and Toledo (8-1). they play each other so loser is out. best case is Toledo to beat BG and NIU win out (WMU and Ohio) as that would keep Toledo from even playing in the championship game thus knocking them out.
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