This is absurd. Green time after time failed to keep drives going. The reason we ran the ball so much is when we tried to throw the ball he couldn’t do it. He’s a very average to poor thrower. So he didn’t throw the ball as much, out of necessity. The reason he didn’t have more throws is yes we had a conservative offense this year. But he time after time had bad games, made bad decisions, and poor throws.
You be the judge....
- Thread starter extragreen
- Start date
Pure malarkey^^^
I'm not trying to make Green something he's not. I'm arguing against the "it's all the QBs fault" when I believe it's a coaching problem. You and others are comparing him negatively to who?....that's right, the QB who erased a bunch of career records at MU formerly held by Chad and Byron. Are you going to tell me that you wouldn't welcome Cato back to MU as QB if you knew in advance he would throw 13 more incomplete passes in each of his junior and senior year and had 9 more interceptions each year?
I agree . If you have a system them you have a system. It is obvious that coach doc changed his philosophy. If Green cannot execute the system then you find someone who can and that is on the coach. Doc wants to play ball control and do enough to try not to lose.
It’s a mixture. And we will never know the true answer. I obviously haven’t broken down every drive this year, but I think if you did you’d find more times than not he is responsible for not keeping drives going.
There’s a reason Green didn’t have as many passing attempts. That’s where this illogical argument begins and ends.
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Play calling? Recruiting? Depth? Coaching? Player development?
Play calling? Recruiting? Depth? Coaching? Player development?[/QUOTE]
Evidently there has to be a reason behind it. But is it a valid reason or not? Here's one thing I looked at before this conversation started....their Freshman seasons were were almost identical, yet their next year in their first 5 games Cato throws about an extra 100 times over that of Green while they both threw the same number of total interceptions in those first five games. What is the reasoning for that?
Evidently there has to be a reason behind it. But is it a valid reason or not? Here's one thing I looked at before this conversation started....their Freshman seasons were were almost identical, yet their next year in their first 5 games Cato throws about an extra 100 times over that of Green while they both threw the same number of total interceptions in those first five games. What is the reasoning for that?[/QUOTE]
The reason is the coaching staff didn't have faith in Green to run the whole playbook. Listen, we see QBs perform in games. So do coaches. Not only that, they know what the QB was supposed to call, supposed to read, supposed to see. They know not only what he does, but what he knows. On top of that, they see him everyday in practice. They sit with him everyday in film study.
I didn't say Green didn't have the confidence of the coaching staff...they did. This is the answer to the question you keep asking.
In the 12 game regular season in 2012 we ran 1,087 plays. This year in the 12 game regular season we ran 818 plays. What do you know, the difference there is 269 plays, wonder why Green got less attempts? Oh, that's right, because he couldn't sustain drives and increase our number of plays.
If we give Green 250 more passing attempts this season we would have been well north of 60% pass in our play selection. Remember that each one of those pass attempts is one less rush attempt, so you aren't gaining 7.34 yards per play, you have to deduct the 4.73 we got per rush attempt. So your net gain is 2.61 yards per play that you change from a run to a pass.
You also have to factor in things like the fact that Knox, based on percentages versus Green, was more likely than Green to convert on anything less than 3rd and 4. The reason being that Green had a far higher percentage of plays that went for 4 yards, or less, than Knox. Take all of Green's plays and total the incompletions, interceptions, sacks, scrambles, runs and completions of less than 4 yards then look at the number of runs that Knox had that were less than 4 yards and calculate each percentage.
Cato and Shuler were just straight up money on third and short, meant more extended drives, more plays, more passing attempts.
If we give Green 250 more passing attempts this season we would have been well north of 60% pass in our play selection. Remember that each one of those pass attempts is one less rush attempt, so you aren't gaining 7.34 yards per play, you have to deduct the 4.73 we got per rush attempt. So your net gain is 2.61 yards per play that you change from a run to a pass.
You also have to factor in things like the fact that Knox, based on percentages versus Green, was more likely than Green to convert on anything less than 3rd and 4. The reason being that Green had a far higher percentage of plays that went for 4 yards, or less, than Knox. Take all of Green's plays and total the incompletions, interceptions, sacks, scrambles, runs and completions of less than 4 yards then look at the number of runs that Knox had that were less than 4 yards and calculate each percentage.
Cato and Shuler were just straight up money on third and short, meant more extended drives, more plays, more passing attempts.
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The stats don't show that. As I said before, 12 more completions gives him the same completion percentage as Cato's jr and sr years, with a Y/A at about the same as his first 3 years.
So what, we ran the ball 60% this year at 4.7 y/p/a while passing got us 7.7 y/p/a. It cost us 9 touchdowns and 800 yards of offense.
I don't know about that, but 40% of our first downs came from our 40% of our snaps.....passing plays.
And 60% of our first downs came from the 60% of snaps....rushing plays.
As I've said before, 12 more completions this year by Green would have put his completion percentage as the same. Don't try to tell me the addition of 12 completions would have given us 250 more offensive plays.
Baloney. He had his redshirt freshman year to work on the playbook. Green started 9 games last year, played in 10, had a 7-2 record with those losses coming to NC State and VT, and won a bowl game. Then he had the off season to learn more. So I'm not buying that.
Yes, that's exactly what you said.
The reason is the coaching staff didn't have faith in Green to run the whole playbook.
Baloney. He had his redshirt freshman year to work on the playbook. Green started 9 games last year, played in 10, had a 7-2 record with those losses coming to NC State and VT, and won a bowl game. Then he had the off season to learn more. So I'm not buying that.
I'm not saying Green doesn't know the whole playbook. I'm saying Green's play (both in games and practice) makes an OC hesitant to call all but the simplest plays in the playbook. Single-read, no checks, no hot routes. I know there are complaints on this site about the playcalling, and some of that may be justified. But I've also been an OC who feels your hands are tied by QB play. The fans are yelling, "Why aren't you throwing the ball?" And I'm thinking, "Have you seen what happens when we throw the ball?"
I didn't say Green didn't have the confidence of the coaching staff...they did.
Yes, that's exactly what you said.
I stick by my statement, in that in inessence, I'm just repeating what the coaching staff has already said over and over again by their actions. I'll rephrase it, though, to make it clearer: The coaching staff said it first.
Look, you have tried to use stats to make your point. And I said in an eariler post that I appreciated your creativness in providing a different perspective in which to evaluate our QB. I just don't think the extrpolation of Green's numbers proves the point you think it does.
It's difficult to evaluate any QB on just one statistic, whether that be INTs or Completion Percentage or TD/INT Ratio or Yards per Attempt, etc. But there is already out there a metric that attmepts to put all the passing stats together and give them a rating. Here are the Passer Ratings over the past 9 years at Marshall.
2011 Cato 125.8
2012 Cato 147.1
2013 Cato 147.8
2014 Cato 155.4
2015 Litton 132.8
2016 Litton 137.9
2017 Litton 131.4
2018 Green 128.2
2019 Green 125.4
Imagine this is how a coaching staff might view/trust their QB. I don't see how this can be spun in a postive light for Green.
Baloney. He had his redshirt freshman year to work on the playbook. Green started 9 games last year, played in 10, had a 7-2 record with those losses coming to NC State and VT, and won a bowl game. Then he had the off season to learn more. So I'm not buying that.
I'm not saying Green doesn't know the whole playbook. I'm saying Green's play (both in games and practice) makes an OC hesitant to call all but the simplest plays in the playbook. Single-read, no checks, no hot routes. I know there are complaints on this site about the playcalling, and some of that may be justified. But I've also been an OC who feels your hands are tied by QB play. The fans are yelling, "Why aren't you throwing the ball?" And I'm thinking, "Have you seen what happens when we throw the ball?"
I didn't say Green didn't have the confidence of the coaching staff...they did.
Yes, that's exactly what you said.
I stick by my statement, in that in inessence, I'm just repeating what the coaching staff has already said over and over again by their actions. I'll rephrase it, though, to make it clearer: The coaching staff said it first.
Look, you have tried to use stats to make your point. And I said in an eariler post that I appreciated your creativness in providing a different perspective in which to evaluate our QB. I just don't think the extrpolation of Green's numbers proves the point you think it does.
It's difficult to evaluate any QB on just one statistic, whether that be INTs or Completion Percentage or TD/INT Ratio or Yards per Attempt, etc. But there is already out there a metric that attmepts to put all the passing stats together and give them a rating. Here are the Passer Ratings over the past 9 years at Marshall.
2011 Cato 125.8
2012 Cato 147.1
2013 Cato 147.8
2014 Cato 155.4
2015 Litton 132.8
2016 Litton 137.9
2017 Litton 131.4
2018 Green 128.2
2019 Green 125.4
Imagine this is how a coaching staff might view/trust their QB. I don't see how this can be spun in a postive light for Green.
Exactly, it's easy to see that Green has not been blowing it up like Cato can and did, and he hasn't compared all that favorably to even Litton, so why on Earth would we call tons of pass plays knowing that we have a turn over machine at QB. We have an average/good at times, running game, and that's what gets called due to our poor QB play. It is what it is. Our defense also doesn't have the bodies necessary to play with an up tempo offense, the last thing they needed was 30 second breather's from going 3 and out with a QB throwing a bunch of quick incomplete passes or ints. Cato wasn't the problem with the 2012 squad, they scored ALOT, we just had the worst defense at MU in a very long time that could not help our high power offense win games. I suspect if we had chosen to sling the ball all over we never would have even gotten to even 5 wins this year. We played conservative and with the offense we had, that's about all you could do given that. It wasn't a great year we all agree on that, but we were able to beat the better coaches in CUSA playing that style, the downside is if we turn it over playing conservative, we lose to teams like Charlotte and MTSU..that just reality.
Here's my take. If we don't find a qb or make this one better, we are in a heap of doodoo. If Knox does not get a breather of more than 1 play off from time to time (Evans saw little to no pt) he will never make it to his senior year. He will either end up like Rockhead or transfer out.
It proves we could have had 9 more touchdowns and 800 more yards of offense than what we had by running the ball 60% of the snaps.
Yet, isn't that what you just did?
I'll say it again, not trying to make Green what he hasn't been, but I'll ask the question again....
Would you welcome Cato back to MU as QB if you knew in advance he would throw 13 more incomplete passes in each of his junior and senior year and had 9 more interceptions each year?
You're persistent, though you seem stuck on your very specific points regardless of their relevance. But I'll play along this time.
It proves we could have had 9 more touchdowns and 800 more yards of offense than what we had by running the ball 60% of the snaps.
Okay, I'll concede that point. And now 19 INTs, I think you said, right? How many fewer rushing yards will we have in this mythical season? How many more points will we score? Will we have 20% more wins? 30%? But then wouldn't we have more losses as well?
If your point is simply that throwing the ball more would have led to more passing yards then I agree, but that's not a good football argument. If your point is that throwing the ball more would have made us more successful, then I don't think this extrapolation proves that...or even hints at that.
Yet, isn't that what you just did? (evaluate a QB using just one statistic)
No, I purposely did not. Passer Rating is a metric that takes into account multiple stats in an attempt to present a more accurate picture of a QB's efficiency and success. Simply saying that one QB threw for more yards or more TDs doesn't do that.
Would you welcome Cato back to MU as QB if you knew in advance he would throw 13 more incomplete passes in each of his junior and senior year and had 9 more interceptions each year?
No.
It proves we could have had 9 more touchdowns and 800 more yards of offense than what we had by running the ball 60% of the snaps.
Okay, I'll concede that point. And now 19 INTs, I think you said, right? How many fewer rushing yards will we have in this mythical season? How many more points will we score? Will we have 20% more wins? 30%? But then wouldn't we have more losses as well?
If your point is simply that throwing the ball more would have led to more passing yards then I agree, but that's not a good football argument. If your point is that throwing the ball more would have made us more successful, then I don't think this extrapolation proves that...or even hints at that.
Yet, isn't that what you just did? (evaluate a QB using just one statistic)
No, I purposely did not. Passer Rating is a metric that takes into account multiple stats in an attempt to present a more accurate picture of a QB's efficiency and success. Simply saying that one QB threw for more yards or more TDs doesn't do that.
Would you welcome Cato back to MU as QB if you knew in advance he would throw 13 more incomplete passes in each of his junior and senior year and had 9 more interceptions each year?
No.
9 tds x 6 points = 54 points plus any PATs.
The 800 extra yards I stated were NET yards after allowing for loss of rushing yards.
More TDs and more yards of offense indicates more wins.
So you find these stats unacceptable?....the completion % and yards per attempt are Green's actual stats.The attempts are Cato's senior year and the completions are Cato's minus the 13 completions I mentioned. The TDS and interceptions are extrapolated.
254 completions
451 attempts
56.3 completion %
3292 yards
7.3 yards per attempt
TDs 20
Interceptions 15
It’s clear we are not at all on the same page. I am trying to point out that statistics have context; that what you are projecting is interesting in a theoretical sense, but cannot be translated in a strictly linear fashion as you have done. And you are saying, “9 tds x 6 points = 54 points…” A concrete statement, made as though it was an inevitable conclusion. Where you feel these extra points will naturally lead to more wins, I’m not ready to ignore the potential result of the increased interceptions, or the enormous speculation required to imagine the changing down-and-distances, point-spreads, ever-changing strategies, possible increase in sacks (and their effect on drives), and every other situation football allows for. Again, this is not, as you propose, a linear equation.
Like I said, I enjoyed the initial speculation. It was a different perspective, and I always appreciate when someone can help me see things from a unique viewpoint. But I can’t join you in this mythical season you’ve created. It’s been fun. Good luck on your journey.
Like I said, I enjoyed the initial speculation. It was a different perspective, and I always appreciate when someone can help me see things from a unique viewpoint. But I can’t join you in this mythical season you’ve created. It’s been fun. Good luck on your journey.
Extra, you are falling apart by trying to cherry pick different Cato stats from different seasons to make your point. Yes, Cato completed just under 60% his senior season (picking that to support your"12 more completions" argument), but he was a much more effective downfield thrower by that season. He averaged 8.5 yards per attempt and threw 40 TDs and only 13 ints. His Jr year he was 7.9 ypa with 42TDs and only 10Ints.
Cato's threw a TD about once for every 11 passes. Green throws a TD about once for every 20 passes. When Cato threw a short passing game he completed almost 70% of his passes, when he lengthened the passing game his completion percentage dropped, by his yards per attempt went up significantly. Green is a combination of poor completion percentage and low yards per attempt. What that simply tells you is that he is far less accurate. This is reinforced by his much higher interception rate.
I'm sorry, but when you have an inaccurate QB, that throws a lot of interceptions, and has a very low TD per attempt rate, you don't want to double his opportunities.
Cato's threw a TD about once for every 11 passes. Green throws a TD about once for every 20 passes. When Cato threw a short passing game he completed almost 70% of his passes, when he lengthened the passing game his completion percentage dropped, by his yards per attempt went up significantly. Green is a combination of poor completion percentage and low yards per attempt. What that simply tells you is that he is far less accurate. This is reinforced by his much higher interception rate.
I'm sorry, but when you have an inaccurate QB, that throws a lot of interceptions, and has a very low TD per attempt rate, you don't want to double his opportunities.
Of course they do. My extrapolations are not iron clad proof. But those extrapolations are more indicative than some of you saying something like "well, the coaches didn't have confidence to let Green use the whole playbook" in the guys 3rd year of being in a Herd uniform and his second year as the starter. Among Marshall freshman QBs, Green’s season (2018) ranks third in completions, third in attempts, second in passing yards and tied for second in passing touchdowns … Average of 245.9 passing yards per game is the most ever by a Herd freshman QB. There was no QB controversy going into 2019.
I am careful not to share everything on this site, but I want to assure you that you are very wrong in this thinking. The coaching staff would love to trust the entire playbook to Green, but he has yet to give them the confidence that he can handle it. Their lack of confidence shows mostly in their play calling.
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That's right. 13 more completions brings the soph completion percentage equal to the senior Cato.
His best ypa stats of his career....as a senior.
Very impressive....so remember which QB we're comparing Green to.
Only when you compare Green to one of the best. Once again 13 completions (in an entire season) separate Green from Cato. As for yards per attempt, if Green had Cato's 8.7 ypa, he would have thrown an additional 485 yards. That's meaningless if you're going to ignore that my extrapolations showed Green would have thrown for 800 more yards and 9 more tds.
Better than Stan Hills senior season, and only slightly less than Chase Littons senior year. Once again, who are we comparing here?
So they have a lack of confidence in Green, and less confidence in Thompson. Sounds like a coaching problem to me.
Chase Litton didn't have a senior year.
You are being as hard headed about this stuff as you are politics.
You are being as hard headed about this stuff as you are politics.
True. His junior year. And after that junior year he was signed by the Kansas City Chiefs.
And you are being as wrong about this stuff as you are politics.
don’t bring up facts!!! It’s not Greens fault it’s all Docs!
The only fact you've offered so far is the following....
....and the following is close to being a fact....
"It’s not Greens fault it’s all Docs"
Or you could compare Green to someone like Jimmy Skinner who by most opinions on here was not one of the best. As I have already pointed out, if you gave Skinner the same amount of attempts in 2006, he would have more yards, more TDs and a higher completion percentage than Green all while playing in a much tougher CUSA. Whats that say about Green when his number don't even compare to Jimmy Skinners 2006 numbers?
Skinner was a very serviceable QB his senior year. He was the victim of another conservative coach who preferred another QB that had less numbers in every stat except rushing yards and wanted to ride Bradshaw's carries. I remember watching that circus under a conservative ringmaster.
Green's season was better than Stan Hills senior season, and only slightly less than Chase Littons junior year that got him signed to a pro team.
Looks like you're going to go down swinging. Just one note on this post: College coaches don't recruit athletes on high school stats, and the NFL doesn't sign athletes on college stats. Congratulations to Litton for getting an opportunity to prove himself at the next level, but his stats, good or bad, had nothing to do with it.
Nope. I know conservative coaching when I see it. And that's what we've had for the last 2 coaches. They play not to lose. After the exceptional soph year that Cato had, the next year he had 85 less attempts while playing in 2 more games, his senior season the attempts went down another 48 attempts. I stated on this board after the 2010 season that Doc was not the guy.
ha ha Judge EG will never concede he is wrong. Just go over to Pullman and read a few threads.
It comes down to this @extragreen: If you don't understand football well enough to see the coaching staff's lack of trust in Green through their play-calling, then this conversation is a waste of our time. I feel it's like I was talking for thirty minutes at a bar with a dude when he says, "And that's when the alien ship landed," and I realize in that moment that was thirty minutes I'll never get back.
