Why we still have a decent shot at the Access Bowl

[andy4theherd]

lots of people saying it is pretty much impossible in a few different threads. here is why it is actually not that far fetched...

*this all assumes we win out

Our competition:

M̶e̶m̶p̶h̶i̶s̶

T̶e̶m̶p̶l̶e̶
remaining games: UConn, *AAC Championship game (Houston, Navy)

Houston
remaining games: UConn, Navy, *AAC Championship game (Temple, USF)

Navy
remaining games: @Houston, Army, *AAC Championship game (Temple, USF)

B̶o̶w̶l̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶G̶r̶e̶e̶n̶

Toledo
remaining game: WMU, *MAC Championship (BG)

B̶o̶i̶s̶e̶

A̶p̶p̶y̶ ̶S̶t̶a̶t̶e l

These are the only teams that can win a G5 conference and have a record and "body of work" equal to or better than ours. The first three are the only teams that control their destiny. If one of them wins out they get the spot without debate. Currently Toledo and Boise are not even slotted to play in their conference championship games. They need help. With all three AAC schools having difficult games remaining it is highly probable to see some loses between them.

THE ACCESS BOWL CAN ONLY GO TO A CONFERENCE CHAMPION.

This is something a lot of people are forgetting. Memphis can win out and be ranked in the top 10, but if they lose the AAC championship game they can NOT get the Access Bowl G5 spot (they could get in as the "at large"and play another G5). The same goes for all the guys listed. If Memphis or Houston drop a regular season game and still win the AACC they will get the spot. We need both to either drop 2 regular season games, or the easy way, lose the AACC game.

edited to add Navy. as pointed out, if they win out they will get the spot.

edit #2: added BUGS and Appy State... then crossed off Appy after lose to Ark State ;-)


Games to watch:

Nov. 27
Navy @ Houston (TBD) *tbd
WMU @ Toledo (TBD) *need Toledo loss

Nov. 28
UConn @ Temple (TBD) *need Temple loss

Dec. 12
Army @ Navy (TBD) *Go Army!

 

[thunderstruckatthejoan]

We have a chance b/c everyone else has a harder schedule! Got it!

I just want to win the next few weeks.

 

[andy4theherd]

We have a chance b/c everyone else has a harder schedule! Got it!

I just want to win the next few weeks.

we are underdogs on the road this week. we will be underdogs on the road against WKU. we would likely play a good LA Tech team in the championship...

nothing easy about that.....

 

[Gochneaur645]

I think you're underestimating the miracle we need from the American.

First of all, Navy is also in the mix. If they win out, they're 12-1 with wins over Memphis and Houston and a loss to Notre Dame. That obviously destroys our resume.

The chance of the AAC West champ having more than 2 losses is almost mathematically impossible and certainly realistically impossible. With Memphis beating Ole Miss and Houston beating Louisville and Vandy, plus the winner having more quality wins over the others, there's no way we can compete with even a 2-loss champ from this division.

That means we need a champ from the AAC East. Temple destroyed Penn State and took Notre Dame to the wire. We obviously have no chance against them if they win out. We don't have a chance over a 2-loss Temple either. I'm not even sure we beat out a 3-loss Temple, but it is possible.

That means Temple has to lose to Memphis and one other regular season game. That would put Cincinnati or USF (or a 3-loss Temple) in the title game, and they would be our only hope.

From the MWC, I think it's highly likely Boise ends up back in the title game. They only need a Utah State loss to control their own destiny, and USU will be a significant underdog at Air Force in two weeks.

There's also Appy. They could finish 11-1 and their only loss is to the #1 team in the country. I'm not confident we'd be selected over them in that case.

 

[bangtheherd]

Remember, committee is all about how teams have played as of late. If we win out, they'll could see us as a "hot" team playing well at the right time.

 

[IslandHerd1]

I think you're underestimating the miracle we need from the American.

First of all, Navy is also in the mix. If they win out, they're 12-1 with wins over Memphis and Houston and a loss to Notre Dame. That obviously destroys our resume.

The chance of the AAC West champ having more than 2 losses is almost mathematically impossible and certainly realistically impossible. With Memphis beating Ole Miss and Houston beating Louisville and Vandy, plus the winner having more quality wins over the others, there's no way we can compete with even a 2-loss champ from this division.

That means we need a champ from the AAC East. Temple destroyed Penn State and took Notre Dame to the wire. We obviously have no chance against them if they win out. We don't have a chance over a 2-loss Temple either. I'm not even sure we beat out a 3-loss Temple, but it is possible.

That means Temple has to lose to Memphis and one other regular season game. That would put Cincinnati or USF (or a 3-loss Temple) in the title game, and they would be our only hope.

From the MWC, I think it's highly likely Boise ends up back in the title game. They only need a Utah State loss to control their own destiny, and USU will be a significant underdog at Air Force in two weeks.

There's also Appy. They could finish 11-1 and their only loss is to the #1 team in the country. I'm not confident we'd be selected over them in that case.

I think you missed the part where it says only a conference champion can go to the access bowl

 

[Gochneaur645]

I think you missed the part where it says only a conference champion can go to the access bowl

I'm quite aware of this. My point is we can't beat any of the 3 potential AAC West champs. That means we need the AAC East champ to win the title game. And we can't beat the AAC East champ unless Temple loses twice.

 

[Herd Fever]

Point blank, we need to be rooting for Cincy and Navy and then Cincy to beat Navy

Boise is out, they was embarrassed on National TV to an inferior Utah State team

 

[andy4theherd]

yea, best bet is for Temple to lose 2 of their 4 final games and then win the championship. that would pretty much guarantee we get the spot *IF* we win out...

 

[andy4theherd]

even if none of this pans out, it will give us all some extra games to watch with close attention...

 

[Gochneaur645]

Point blank, we need to be rooting for Cincy and Navy and then Cincy to beat Navy

Boise is out, they was embarrassed on National TV to an inferior Utah State team

2-loss Boise was embarrassed last year by inferior Air Force around the same time and was still ranked ahead of 11-0 Marshall. I'm not going to write them off yet.

 

[andy4theherd]

added Navy. i meant to add them after first post but got busy and forgot. they would definitely get the spot if they win out. solid wins against Memphis, Houston, and possibly Temple. plus they are Navy and would be coming off the Army/Navy game. nobody would knock them out at that point.

 

[jeremycriss]

A 2 loss Temple/Navy/Memphis/Houston/Boise/Toledo will get in before we do.

 

[andy4theherd]

A 2 loss Temple/Navy/Memphis/Houston/Boise/Toledo will get in before we do.

not if they do not win their conference...

 

[Herd Fever]

2-loss Boise was embarrassed last year by inferior Air Force around the same time and was still ranked ahead of 11-0 Marshall. I'm not going to write them off yet.

Air Force didn't embarrass them, they just beat them. Boise was down something like 42-3 at Halftime to Utah State and had like 8 turnovers.

 

[andy4theherd]

Air Force didn't embarrass them, they just beat them. Boise was down something like 42-3 at Halftime to Utah State and had like 8 turnovers.

AF beat them 28-14 in 2014

Utah State beat them 52-26 and was up 52-10 in the 3rd quarter... Utah State got beat a couple of weeks ago 48-14 by San Diego State...

 

[Herd Fever]

More of a reason why Boise wont get the access spot

 

[SHAMMOND16]

Also forgetting Appalachian State.

 

[Herd Fever]

No Sun Belt school will ever play in the Access Spot

 

[SHAMMOND16]

No Sun Belt school will ever play in the Access Spot

Ever is a long time.

 

[Gochneaur645]

The Air Force and Utah State losses for Boise were pretty similar. Boise trailed AFA 28-0 late in that game and had 7 turnovers. They had 8 against USU (in one half). The committee also doesn't seem to care that much about margin of victory.

Point is, I'm not sold on the committee picking 1-loss Marshall over a 2-loss Boise with a P5 win over Washington when they wouldn't pick 0-loss Marshall over a 2-loss Boise without a P5 win.

 

[W-S HerdFan]

Correct me if I am wrong: SBConf only fields 11 teams, thus no C'ship game .....

 

[Herdon2]

The Air Force and Utah State losses for Boise were pretty similar. Boise trailed AFA 28-0 late in that game and had 7 turnovers. They had 8 against USU (in one half). The committee also doesn't seem to care that much about margin of victory.

Point is, I'm not sold on the committee picking 1-loss Marshall over a 2-loss Boise with a P5 win over Washington when they wouldn't pick 0-loss Marshall over a 2-loss Boise without a P5 win.

But if Boise is not in the conference championship then the committee can't pick them regardless of who they beat or played.

 

[andy4theherd]

But if Boise is not in the conference championship then the committee can't pick them regardless of who they beat or played.

he's assuming the win out and Utah State loses. otherwise, they can't get in.

 

[IslandHerd1]

Herd wins out, wins CUSA and wins the access bowl over TCU all with a youthful team. Mark it down it's what's happening. Oh and Trevone Boykin high fives Evan McKelvey after his 3rd sack that causes the fumble that Lang returns for a TD to seal the win.

Big 12 invites the Herd to join after the game and Hamrick high fives the Big 12 commish at a press conference to accept the invite. Hell the governor makes New Year's Day Thundering Herd Day for the state of WV in light of the accomplishment. wVu officially asks to keep Iowa State as its "rival" and the herd and eers don't play ever under the 9 game Big 12 format. Dana Holgerson follows up all this with a Diane sawyer interview in which he lets the world know he's a trans-Jenner.

 

[redsfan5590]

None of this matters guys! The last two weeks we looked bad in the second half of blow outs! We should be focussing ALL of our energy into griping about that and not this positive nonsense! We suck!

 

[TwentyTen]

What about bowling green?

 

[andy4theherd]

What about bowling green?

they have 2 P5 wins (Maryland and Purdue), a P5 loss (Tennessee 59-30), and a G5 loss (Memphis 44-41). they would have a pretty good argument if they win out AND the AAC teams collapse...

 

[TwentyTen]

they have 2 P5 wins (Maryland and Purdue), a P5 loss (Tennessee 59-30), and a G5 loss (Memphis 44-41). they would have a pretty good argument if they win out AND the AAC teams collapse...

I think they would have a pretty good argument over us even with 3 losses. They barely lost to Memphis, beat Purdue by 7 at Purdue and absolutely thumped a team we lost pretty convincingly to and a team we went to 3 OTs with.

 

[Marine03]

The one reason we will never see an access slot is the deplorable loss to Ohio. Any 1 loss AAC school gets the bid ahead of us. Memphis, Whoston, Temple. There loss will be better than ours. Give it up, it's a pipe dream

 

[andy4theherd]

The one reason we will never see an access slot is the deplorable loss to Ohio. Any 1 loss AAC school gets the bid ahead of us. Memphis, Whoston, Temple. There loss will be better than ours. Give it up, it's a pipe dream

re-read the OP. Memphis, Houston, and Temple can be ranked 1, 2, and 3 in the nation BUT if the do not win the AAC championship game they can not get the Access spot...

that was pretty much the premise of this entire thread.

 

[W-S HerdFan]

Marine - do you agree about the Conf Champ stipulation?

 

[Herd Fever]

Absoulutey. The access spot should go to the G5 team that wins their conference point blank

 

[Marine03]

I do but any of the three one loss teams I mentioned would have a better loss than us. So if Memphis/Houston winner matches up with Temple and temple wins they're in. A one or two loss AAC champ will and should get in ahead of us.

 

[Marine03]

I also think BUGS has s better shot than us. I honestly do not see any scenario other than all of the aforementioned having 3 losses and we win out. And I'd still cross fingers that it would still happen.

 

[andy4theherd]

I also think BUGS has s better shot than us. I honestly do not see any scenario other than all of the aforementioned having 3 losses and we win out. And I'd still cross fingers that it would still happen.

all we need is Temple to lose to USF and Memphis (very possible) in regular season and then win AAC championship. that would knock the entire AAC out of the Access spot.

BUGS still has WMU and Toledo in regular season. unless they lose all 3 of their final games they have the MAC East and a spot in the MACC. they would then face WMU, Toldeo, or NIU. very difficult to beat the same team back to back (WMU/Toledo).

again, not saying it is "likely" that any of this happens, but possible...

 

[Marine03]

Just going off RPI App. State is ranked 27 spots ahead of us with a similar SOS and with only one loss and they'll most likely win the Sun Belt. They also are receiving votes in human polls. I'm not certain they're bowl eligible this year though. Navy with one loss could win the AAC yet. A lot could happen but I'm not betting the bank that everyone ranked ahead of us will suddenly drop 2-3 over the next few weeks.

 

[Gochneaur645]

re-read the OP. Memphis, Houston, and Temple can be ranked 1, 2, and 3 in the nation BUT if the do not win the AAC championship game they can not get the Access spot...

that was pretty much the premise of this entire thread.

Lol, technically in that scenario, Memphis, Houston, and Temple would all be in the playoff and no other G5 would have to be selected for an Access Bowl.

 

[andy4theherd]

Lol, technically in that scenario, Memphis, Houston, and Temple would all be in the playoff and no other G5 would have to be selected for an Access Bowl.

true...

 

[TwentyTen]

Just going off RPI App. State is ranked 27 spots ahead of us with a similar SOS and with only one loss and they'll most likely win the Sun Belt. They also are receiving votes in human polls. I'm not certain they're bowl eligible this year though. Navy with one loss could win the AAC yet. A lot could happen but I'm not betting the bank that everyone ranked ahead of us will suddenly drop 2-3 over the next few weeks.

They would have a pretty good argument over us with the Ohio loss. That'd be a punch in the gut to lose the access bowl to a team that just moved up.