Why we still have a decent shot at the Access Bowl
- Thread starter andy4theherd
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with the above scenario the final candidates would be:
NIU (10-3)
positives: 0-2 vs P5; 7 point loss to tOSU, 3 point loss to BC
negative: loss to CMU (5-5)
Marshall (11-2)
positive: 1-0 vs P5
negative: 2 loses to G5
USF (9-4)
no chance
Air Force (10-3)
0-1 vs P5
negative: outscored 71-34 in 2 G5 loses
Boise (10-3)
positive: 2-0 vs P5 (Wash, UVA)
negative: 2 G5 loses and BYU
AF plays @ Boise next week. winner all but clinches spot in MW championship. if Boise win out with the above scenario i think they get the spot with 2 P5 wins. so we need AF to win next week. best case scenario would be Boise or AF losing the MW championship game to San Diego State. they have 0 P5 wins and 3 loses.
NIU (10-3)
positives: 0-2 vs P5; 7 point loss to tOSU, 3 point loss to BC
negative: loss to CMU (5-5)
Marshall (11-2)
positive: 1-0 vs P5
negative: 2 loses to G5
USF (9-4)
no chance
Air Force (10-3)
0-1 vs P5
negative: outscored 71-34 in 2 G5 loses
Boise (10-3)
positive: 2-0 vs P5 (Wash, UVA)
negative: 2 G5 loses and BYU
AF plays @ Boise next week. winner all but clinches spot in MW championship. if Boise win out with the above scenario i think they get the spot with 2 P5 wins. so we need AF to win next week. best case scenario would be Boise or AF losing the MW championship game to San Diego State. they have 0 P5 wins and 3 loses.
if they win out and the AAC guys bomb i think they get in with the 2 P5 wins and their "legacy"...
we really needed to beat MTSU..........
Memphis still in CFP top 20. Navy and Houston as well. With no computers involved in this process looks like quality of wins aND competition winning the day. Still football to be played but looks like with three AAC teams getting votes they are in the driver's seat for Access Bowl.
you either didn't read the part about them "not" winning the AAC championship in this scenario, or you are unaware that the Access Bowl rep from the G5 is required to have won their conference...
Bowling Green lost to Toledo so they are done at 8-3. NIU has one game remaining (11/24 Ohio). if they win they clinch the division and Toledo is eliminated.
Boise lost to AF last night so they are eliminated at (7-4).
Memphis further eliminated themselves losing 31-12 to Temple. Houston is down 7-0 to UConn in the 1st. Navy plays Tulsa at 7.
Boise lost to AF last night so they are eliminated at (7-4).
Memphis further eliminated themselves losing 31-12 to Temple. Houston is down 7-0 to UConn in the 1st. Navy plays Tulsa at 7.
A Memphis win would have basically knocked Temple out. Probably knew that, and that's why they laid an egg...
I say unless Navy really misses up they are a lock this year. They would love to have Navy don't you think? Toledo would be next man up. I would say we might have had a chance this year but no way we get it with a loss to Ohio and MTSU.
Toledo is eliminated if NIU beats Ohio because they will not play in the MACC. For the entire AAC contenders (Navy, Houston, and Temple) to be eliminated we only need a Temple loss to UConn (that puts USF in AACC) and USF to win AACC.
The G5 rep can ONLY be a conference champion.
Why would USF be eliminated? Their only bad loss is to Maryland. They lost to 3 teams that are or were in the top 25. Their blowout wins vs. temple and cincy are better than anything we have done(a win vs wku would be close).
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Thing is, those losses were to G5 teams. Apparently, P5 losses are actually more valuable and wins, more valuable than anything.
USF wins out as do we, we could get in over them. 4 losses vs 2 losses, regardless of who, is pretty simple.
Air Force could sneak in as well, however, they lose in the MW title game, they are done as a conference.
The biggest element of all this is the record of the G5 conference champs. USF and SDSU and NIU would have lesser records than MU...and give MU a shot at the Access Bowl.
USF wins out as do we, we could get in over them. 4 losses vs 2 losses, regardless of who, is pretty simple.
Air Force could sneak in as well, however, they lose in the MW title game, they are done as a conference.
The biggest element of all this is the record of the G5 conference champs. USF and SDSU and NIU would have lesser records than MU...and give MU a shot at the Access Bowl.
they lost 35-17 to a (2-9) Maryland team who's only other win was over Richmond...
there is no way a 4 loss team gets in over a 2 loss Marshall team.
Thing is, those losses were to G5 teams. Apparently, P5 losses are actually more valuable and wins, more valuable than anything.
USF wins out as do we, we could get in over them. 4 losses vs 2 losses, regardless of who, is pretty simple.
Air Force could sneak in as well, however, they lose in the MW title game, they are done as a conference.
The biggest element of all this is the record of the G5 conference champs. USF and SDSU and NIU would have lesser records than MU...and give MU a shot at the Access Bowl.
USF wins out as do we, we could get in over them. 4 losses vs 2 losses, regardless of who, is pretty simple.
Air Force could sneak in as well, however, they lose in the MW title game, they are done as a conference.
The biggest element of all this is the record of the G5 conference champs. USF and SDSU and NIU would have lesser records than MU...and give MU a shot at the Access Bowl.
Houston, Navy, and Temple are the only teams left that control their own destiny. if one of them wins out they get the spot no questions asked.
I think you're overvaluing records. I think it would be very close between Marshall and USF. They at least have some wins to lean on. We would have WKU and SMiss and maybe La Tech with losses to 2 very mediocre teams.
and i think you are undervaluing...
the day a 4 loss G5 team playing a G5 schedule gets a multi-million dollar, formerly known as "BCS", Bowl is the day the entire system folds under the weight of the entire college football world's outcry...
I don't think the entire college football world would care about who got G5 crumbs.
And Bowling Green isn't out of it yet. They could still win the MAC and their resume is much better than ours.
Updated...
Houston dropped one to UConn, ouch.
Navy will have to beat Houston and then have to beat Army (who is always a challenge) to really guarantee themselves a spot.
Temple needs to drop their final game to UConn to be out of the AACC...that'd put Navy against USF and we'd need USF to win.
*Should Navy win the AACC and lose to Army, there's a contingent on this with the CFP and they'd meet to discuss Navy's fate.
If Army should somehow beat Navy...and there's a possibility since it's Army (and Army is terrible this season) that loss could really hurt Navy...if it were anyone else, I'd say that could be enough to knock them back a few pegs, but since it's a service academy, the national appeal might allow them to be forgiven.
Then again, Navy's schedule has 1 P-5 team in it, and it was a bad loss to Notre Dame...they even played Colgate!
So schedule strength may be against them...if possible.
In the MAC, NIU needs to win out in order to keep one or the other from the MACC and beat the challenger. If that happens, they'll finish with 3 losses.
MWC seems to already be set with SDSU vs. Air Force...SDSU needs to win this one...if Air Force should somehow drop their final game to New Mexico, and then win the MWC, they'd be sitting at 4 losses, as would SDSU if Nevada beats them. Seeing their scores, SDSU seems to be cruising through the conference, but Nevada is right behind them...who knows.
As for us? Well, we beat WKU and whoever...we'd have beaten the two best teams in our conference, both would have 9 wins...and we'd have the least amount of losses (if all our best case scenarios panned out for everyone else).
I really think that we could make a good argument for the slot, it's possible.
the army/navy game isn't until dec 12 this year, the week after the aac title game. assume navy wins this week at houston, then wins the aac title game. do they go ahead and put them in the fiesta/peach bowl prior to the army game? there's no way they can put off all other bowl selections another week, is there?
"much better"???
which part? the 59-30 loss to 7-4 Tenn? the 44-28 loss to Toledo? their 2nd G5 loss of the season to 7-3 Memphis?
yea, they beat Maryland who has 1 FBS win on the season (0 P5 wins) and they beat Purdue. how you draw "much better" resume than ours from that baffles me...
I would currently put us about 4th in the remaining shiniest turd category. Hinging our bets on how others perform tells me we dropped the ball too much on our own accord.
I recall reading that there is a special contingent regarding the CFP and if Army or Navy were ever in a position to be selected, the selection committee would be delayed in their selection results until after the Army/Navy game.
Of course, this has ticked off the MWC commish and a few others.
Personally, they should announce the bowl selections on time and have it say (for example),
"Georgia will play either Navy or Marshall. If Navy wins Saturday, they will get the Access Bowl, if they lose, Marshall will get it."
Personally, I am a little torn by this...but hey, live with it.
Of course, this has ticked off the MWC commish and a few others.
Personally, they should announce the bowl selections on time and have it say (for example),
"Georgia will play either Navy or Marshall. If Navy wins Saturday, they will get the Access Bowl, if they lose, Marshall will get it."
Personally, I am a little torn by this...but hey, live with it.
They beat a team 48-0 we had to go to 2 OT to beat on the same field. They slaughtered a team that makes up one of our bad losses. I'm not going to bag on them for losing to a P5 who all but had one of the top teams in the country beat and then losing to a top 25 rival and a team that has spent much of the year in the top 25. To me, it's no comparison. I'd feel dirty getting a bid over them.
I doubt Boise felt dirty when they were ranked ahead of us even when we were still undefeated to their two losses. Also, WKU playing LSU so late in the season screws us. Had they played them earlier, got the loss out of the way, they'd be on a win streak and quite possible close to being ranked.
NIU lost to Ohio which means if Toledo beats WMU they win the division and go to the MACC. if they do that they are very much in the discussion with the AAC champion and easily above the CUSA champ...
if they lose to WMU then NIU will win the division via head-2-head tie-breaker (we need this to happen for any shot at a CUSA Access Bowl rep...
if they lose to WMU then NIU will win the division via head-2-head tie-breaker (we need this to happen for any shot at a CUSA Access Bowl rep...
So, just to keep this thread going a little- who is in the drivers seat right now for the Access slot!
Houston?
Go Herd !!!!!!
Houston?
Go Herd !!!!!!
the AAC is guaranteed the spot with Houston beating Navy and Temple beating UConn. Houston at 11-1 easily in with a win over Temple. Temple at 10-2 would also be easily in as beating Houston would give them two wins over top 25 teams and a 4 point loss to Notre Dame only helps their case...
Toledo lost to WMU which knocked them out of the MACC so they can not get in per the "conference champion" rule.
nobody else even close...
AAC Championship game will be on ABC live from Houston. These tickets are the hottest in the city. Make sure y'all compare our game coverage and atmosphere to the one with Southern Miss and Western Kentucky.
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