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2018-2019 CUSA Basketball Preview

GeorgeDickel

Platinum Buffalo
Nov 19, 2008
5,912
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It's officially game week and it's finally time to talk some basketball.

Not sure if this has been posted yet, but one of the cooler websites out there IMO - www.three-man-weave.com - focuses on CBB and mid-majors, to boot. IMO you'll be hard pressed to find better mid-major coverage anywhere online. They really do their homework.

As for their content, they do a great preseason write-up every year. No big surprise, but they pick WKU as the favorite. They do have us right there with UNT, ODU and a few others, which I believe is a fairly reasonable assessment. Despite my optimism, I can see a few weaknesses that could be glaring this season for us.

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Here is what they say about Marshall:

3. Marshall
Key Returners: Jon Elmore, CJ Burks, Jarrod West, Rondale Watson, Jannson Williams, Darius George
Key Losses: Adjin Penava
Key Newcomers: Iran Bennett (redshirted last year), Ante Sustic, Cam Brooks-Harris, Taevion Kinsey, DeAundra Murphy, Jeremy Dillon, Luke Thomas

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Outlook: Oh, how the stars aligned last year for Dan D’Antoni. The offensive innovator and analytics advocate watched his vision of NBA-ifying Marshall basketball come to life as the Herd ‘stampeded’ through most of the Conference USA and right over Wichita State in the opening round of the NCAA tournament. That national platform brought ‘the cat out of the bag’, so to speak, as the national media finally shined light on the NASCAR-paced, 3-point chucking offense that D’Antoni has stubbornly stood by since taking over in 2012.

The high-octane offense is spearheaded by the 1-2 punch of Jon Elmore (the ‘Batman’) and CJ Burks (the ‘Robin’). Elmore rose to national fame in the Herd’s opening round upset over the Shockers, but the 6-3 table setter was already a known commodity around C-USA. The combination of his pristine shooting splits and astronomical assist rate bear a striking resemblance to James Harden, the poster child for offensive efficiency at the lead guard spot. Like Harden, Elmore is a savvy penetrator with an uncanny knack for drawing whistles, which earns him countless trips to the charity stripe (where he shoots 83%). His plus size also helps him finish over and around opposing forwards in the middle and there’s no limit to where his shooting range ends out on the perimeter.

Both Elmore and Burks (a dual-threat combo guard), thrive in D’Antoni’s offense that features a steady stream of screen-n-roll. Per Synergy, the Thundering Herd ranked 40th overall in points per possession on pick-n-roll possessions when the ball handler shot (typically Elmore or Burks) and 5th nationally when the roll man received the ball. Elmore and Burks are nearly impossible to corral coming off ball screens with how well they read and react to what the defenses gives them. If their primary defender goes under the screen, they won’t hesitate to pull from deep; if they draw a switch with a slower big, they’ll turn on the burners and attack the rim fearlessly; if there’s an extended hard hedge, they’ll find the screener rolling hard down the lane for an alley-oop or easy lay-up. Last year, Adjin Penava feasted on dimes from Elmore and Burks as few could match his versatility at the rim.

Rising sophomore Jarrod West was another pleasant surprise for D’Anotni last year – he proved to be a two-way asset, leading the Herd in both 3-point shooting accuracy (40%) and steals (2 per game). Rondale Watson, a former Wake Forest transfer, rounds out the four primary components of the Thundering Herd’s perimeter scoring machine.

As much ink as the offense receives, it was Herd’s drastic improvement defensively that vaulted them up to 4th place in the league standings last year. As great as the high-flying Penava was as a rim-runner and pick-n-roll diver, his value defensively was unrivaled by any player in the conference. Blessed with Elastigirl reach and springboard hops, the 6’9 Penava acted as human drywall for any and all holes on defense. D’Antoni had virtually no depth or experience up front last season, often relying on a pair of freshmen (Jannson Williams and Darius George) to implant some size and length at the 4 position. But without Penava alongside them as a crutch, the Herd’s defense went from dependable to depressing the second he stepped off the floor:

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With how much D’Antoni emphasizes running shooters off the 3-point line, having a human eraser in the middle is critical to bothering close proximity shots inside.

Bottom Line: Guess what – Penava is now gone, which gives me pause as to how D’Anotni plans to solidify the last line of defense. Human refrigerator Iran Bennett is now eligible after redshirting last year, but he’s the antithesis of Penava as a more grounded, plodding option inside and 6’10 Crotian Ante Sustic played just 10 minutes for his JUCO team last year. Even if Bennett, Sustic or one of the another newcomers emerges, D’Antoni will still have to put a ton of eggs in the George / Williams frontcourt pairing, which could be exposed without Penava there as a backstop.

To be clear, I’m a large fan of Williams’ upside and he’s the obvious breakout candidate on this roster – but even a best case scenario season from Williams won’t fully mitigate the loss of Penava, whose importance to this team may have been overshadowed by Elmore and the gaudy offensive scoring numbers last year.
 
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