Concerns about AAC tv deal if Houston, UCONN and or UC leave?

[Chris McLaughlin]

Anyone visit the CUSABBS boards?

I found an interesting thread talking about what may happen to their television contract should some of the bigger schools leave.

Apparently ESPN has a Group A and Group B on the AAC television contract. If two members of Group A (Houston, Cincy, Temple and UCONN) leave then the contract can automatically be terminated.

If one member of Group A and one member of Group B (everybody else) leave, then the contract can be terminated.

If two members of group B leave then the contract can be renegotiated.

Seems almost certain that at the very least, UC and Houston will leave.

My question to all of you is: Does this concern you? I'll be honest, it concerns me. One of the biggest reasons I now want in the AAC (even without UC, UH and probably Memphis and or UCONN) is the television contract.

 

[TwolfHerdfan]

Even if they had to renegotiate after any defections, I believe the money would still be double or triple what CUSA is getting. jmo.

 

[The Real SamC]

One would hope ESPN has smart enough lawyers to protect itself in such a way. I mean, theoretically, say they have a billion $ contract with the SEC and then every team leaves the SEC and makes up a new league, say the CES. And then West Liberty, Concord, Rio Grande and Belermine form the SEC. No way ESPN is going to sign a blank check without assurances based on membership.

As stated, it is apples to oranges to compare the current CUSA contract to the old contracts for the AAC (or the MAC or whatever). Ours is from the current cord-cutter era. The old grandfathered in contracts are from when all of these networks were flush with cash and ESPN was trying to keep its monopoly and the upstart networks from the other broadcasters were trying to get programming. Apples to oranges. Whether it is because Team X or Team Y leaves or the simple passage of time causes these deals to expire (after the 2019 season for the AAC) they get to join us in a new contract reflecting the new era.

 

[Chris McLaughlin]

One would hope ESPN has smart enough lawyers to protect itself in such a way. I mean, theoretically, say they have a billion $ contract with the SEC and then every team leaves the SEC and makes up a new league, say the CES. And then West Liberty, Concord, Rio Grande and Belermine form the SEC. No way ESPN is going to sign a blank check without assurances based on membership.

As stated, it is apples to oranges to compare the current CUSA contract to the old contracts for the AAC (or the MAC or whatever). Ours is from the current cord-cutter era. The old grandfathered in contracts are from when all of these networks were flush with cash and ESPN was trying to keep its monopoly and the upstart networks from the other broadcasters were trying to get programming. Apples to oranges. Whether it is because Team X or Team Y leaves or the simple passage of time causes these deals to expire (after the 2019 season for the AAC) they get to join us in a new contract reflecting the new era.

Good post. Sums up exactly why I'm worried.

CUSA was the first G5 to get kicked in the nuts with their tv contract but won't be the last. Not by a long shot.

 

[whf2]

Yes, it does concern me. And I've felt all along that the money of AAC today wouldn't be the money of AAC tomorrow. Even with that, personally I'd just rather play those teams year in and year out. New Orleans, Greenville, Orlando, Tampa, etc.; places I'd much rather visit repetatively than Norfolk, Ft. Lauderdale, Miami, etc.

 

[I Herd dat]

Exactly the reason I think the MAC is ultimately better. The local rivals will at least boost ticket sales which is revenue that might be lost in another conference.

 

[HerdFan76]

Most fans would look at the MAC as regression and it would show in ticket sales.

 

[I Herd dat]

I can also see that. But as these conferences implode and teams lose rivalries, I see them not following football as much. Look at ticket sales in Pittsburgh, Morgantown, Syracuse, Colorado... Down down down down. The luster of rivalries is a bigger deal than people realize in my opinion. Especially when opposing teams can travel to the Joan and supplement ticket sales as well.

 

[The Real SamC]

So the troll (who in another thread claims to have remember the MU MAC era, despite being 7 when we moved up) thinks there are "local" rivals in the MAC.

There is exactly one "local" team in the MAC. Ohio U. And one team that a, mostly passing on now, generation has a well-earned hatred for. Miami, not the real one, the one in Ohio.

When we played in the lowly MAC there was no real difference in the gate between a closer MACer such as Akron or Kent State, and a further away MACer. Not rivals. And, other than parents and girlfriends, none traveled anybody to the game.

There is no local angle to the lowly MAC.

 

[I Herd dat]

Miami, bowling green, etc would all be easier to travel to and bring more fans here than Rice and Old Dominion.

Sam- stop whining, it's getting old

 

[HerdFan76]

Ohio brings about 200 fans to the Joan. ECU brought more fans than any other MAC team. The last time we played at Miami, Herd fans outnumbered the home crowd by at least 2-1.

 

[I Herd dat]

I didn't know that Herdfan, I honestly assumed those teams brought more to Huntington, especially Ohio. I have been to the OU Marshall game multiple times but only in Athens and it's usually a great crowd, although that stadium is not big. ECU is definitely good with fan base but I actually predict they'll be the 4th team in the Big 12. Hope I'm wrong

 

[The Real SamC]

You are.

Troll.

 

[TheGreenhouseEffect]

I wouldn't call HD a troll, I'd say he's another Marshall Obsessed Eerbilly , they live on our boards more than their own.

Back to the thread.

My take even if the AAC has an A or B package, if offered we go, because either way it probably pays more than CUSA, has the potential to get added as a P5 conference. Moreover it helps our SOS and improves our home attendance and season ticket sales.

Bottom line, in 2017 I hope we are in the AAC.

 

[I Herd dat]

Good one Fake Sam. You're highly productive in this thread

 

[WV_Celt]

The $12 the new AAC would get would be better than the $5 current c-usa gets

 

[BleedsGreen33]

Most fans would look at the MAC as regression and it would show in ticket sales.

No they wouldn't we only average about 23k a game over the history of the Joan. Those numbers never spiked because of conference opponents.

From 1991-96 against SOCON opponents we averaged 20,918.
From 1997-2004 against MAC opponents we averaged 26,926.
From 2005-Present against CUSA opponents we average 24,546.

Let's not act like we are dropping from a P5 conference to the G5. Our numbers would not go down all that much.

Only three times in 25 years has a CUSA opponent provided us with the biggest game of the season and all three were homecoming games. However 9 times has a MAC opponents provided us with the biggest attended game of the season with only 2 of those 9 being homecoming games.

Now a lot of those numbers were influenced by our success on the field but no one is beating down the doors to see any CUSA opponent from any incarnation of this conference. Heck the highest averaged attended CUSA opponent has been Rice.

 

[I Herd dat]

Exactly Bleeds- the novelty of a bid to the AAC will last 1-2 years and we will see a spike in attendance. After that I highly doubt anyone is coming to watch us play UCF when both teams are 4-2. At least not more than the normal 24k

 

[HerdFan76]

No they wouldn't we only average about 23k a game over the history of the Joan. Those numbers never spiked because of conference opponents.

From 1991-96 against SOCON opponents we averaged 20,918.
From 1997-2004 against MAC opponents we averaged 26,926.
From 2005-Present against CUSA opponents we average 24,546.

Let's not act like we are dropping from a P5 conference to the G5. Our numbers would not go down all that much.

Only three times in 25 years has a CUSA opponent provided us with the biggest game of the season and all three were homecoming games. However 9 times has a MAC opponents provided us with the biggest attended game of the season with only 2 of those 9 being homecoming games.

Now a lot of those numbers were influenced by our success on the field but no one is beating down the doors to see any CUSA opponent from any incarnation of this conference. Heck the highest averaged attended CUSA opponent has been Rice.

Sorry, but can't agree. If we went back to the MAC all we'd hear is how Hamrick is taking us backwards. The local media couldn't blow enough sunshine on it to make the move look like a good decision. The psychological effect of shifting down a level would affect the casual fan, and that's what gets us over 25k per game. Add in mid week games and ticket sales fall into the basement. Who, other than the fans that are on this board, are going to a thurday game against Bowling Green?

 

[TheGreenhouseEffect]

LOL.

We are never going back to the MAC.

What I can see happening is realignment realignment.

The Big East Conference was a great marketing conference , that worked logistically.

I can see a ton of teams that aren't in the SEC ACC or PAC12 getting together and realigning around a conference that makes sense. Marshall included in that realignment.

I'm listening to college football on ESPN right now and Paul Finebaum is commenting the B12 is making a not so smart hasty decision, just to try and get a seat at the table. Here's the issue that hasty decision is now affecting all the teams NOT in the 3 above mentioned conferences.

Finebaum and commenters are all agreeing, the B12 is in trouble and may not exist in 3 years. Thus realignment realignment occurs.

 

[bbneutralfan]

Anyone of us oldies on here know who this "Herd dat" poster is?

 

[I Herd dat]

Bb- I'm a troll because I differ on some opinions, despite my thoughts being realistic. Now you know

 

[19MU88]

you are a troll because you are a marshall obsessed eerbilly with, it would appear, too much free time on his hands.

fyi....most of the smarter trolls quietly fade away once everyone is on to them.

 

[I Herd dat]

Well I'm not going to fade away, at least while I'm in Huntington the next four year... (Maybe 5 if I drink too much at the games haha)

 

[Tim Hensley]

We ain't going back to the MAC and ECU will NOT get an invite (our chances are as good as their's) to the Big 12. Period.

 

[I Herd dat]

Our chances are as good as ECUs? That actually makes me feel somewhat better. I would have thought not even close. Maybe they would consider both for geographical reasons.

 

[TheGreenhouseEffect]

Stay classy HER dat.

 

[I Herd dat]

I want us both to get in. It would also help us with geography. It's only 4 hours from Huntington to Greenville. Would be a great annual rivalry

 

[Chris McLaughlin]

I want us both to get in. It would also help us with geography. It's only 4 hours from Huntington to Greenville. Would be a great annual rivalry

To the Big 12? Come on, man.

 

[I Herd dat]

To any p5. Like I keep saying- every p5 is eventually going to 16 teams. That's eighty teams.

 

[Chris McLaughlin]

To any p5. Like I keep saying- every p5 is eventually going to 16 teams. That's eighty teams.

I see that idea floated all the time but I've yet to see anyone give me a good reason why it will happen.

Regardless, we wouldn't be among the 80 selected. 64 teams plus BYU and ND would leave 14 spots open. Basically all of the AAC would go ahead of us as well as 90% of the MWC.

 

[Herdmeister]

To any p5. Like I keep saying- every p5 is eventually going to 16 teams. That's eighty teams.

I believe that in time the Big XII will not exist. The top teams from that league will go to other P5 conferences leading to a P4. All others will be a big step below.

 

[BleedsGreen33]

Sorry, but can't agree. If we went back to the MAC all we'd hear is how Hamrick is taking us backwards. The local media couldn't blow enough sunshine on it to make the move look like a good decision. The psychological effect of shifting down a level would affect the casual fan, and that's what gets us over 25k per game. Add in mid week games and ticket sales fall into the basement. Who, other than the fans that are on this board, are going to a thurday game against Bowling Green?

So JMU, Liberty, Charlotte, UTSA, FIU, FAU, UTEP, and North Texas are needle movers?

Those same fans you question about attending Thursday night games against BGSU were not going to Thursday night games against UCF.

Of course the local media (i.e. Chuck Landon) would rail against it because it's what they do.

Some can choose to live in this fantasy world that CUSA 2.0, 3.0, and 4.0 are somehow gate boomers but the numbers show otherwise.

The casual fan hasn't shown up since the very first game back in 1992 except for P5 teams and homecoming games. Heck championship and playoff games have produced some of the lowest attendance numbers in the history of The Joan.

I don't want to go back to the MAC unless push came to shove. I'd rather go to the AAC IF they take the only teams that matter in this conference.

However I have zero desire to stay in a conference that is made up of FCS teams and start ups.

 

[I Herd dat]

The big 12 isn't going anywhere. Texas money is way too big for that. So forget about that notion. That being said, I personally believe we would be one of the 80 teams. Especially if we keep having stellar seasons.

 

[19MU88]

I believe that in time the Big XII will not exist. The top teams from that league will go to other P5 conferences leading to a P4. All others will be a big step below.

I don't disagree with this. It is like the Big East all over again.

 

[Chris McLaughlin]

The big 12 isn't going anywhere. Texas money is way too big for that.

Which is exactly why it is vulnerable. It Texas leaves the conference would implode.

 

[The Real SamC]

The Big 12 v.2 has a purpose very similar to the old "Big" East. Texas and Oklahoma wanted to create a cupcake conference that they could dominate. Has not worked out that way, mainly because Texas ran off a good coach and hired an idiot, but that was the goal. And because of all this "third tier" stuff, which more or less Texas keeping $$ that other conferences would share among all the teams. Remember that there is no school other than the Big 2 that had any choice of any other "power" conference at the time of the last realignment.

Now, it seems that, one, ESPN is losing its a** on this Longhorn Network boonedoggle. The ACC is going to ramp up a conference network, meaning everybody would have one except the Big 12, which cannot because of this "third tier" thing. And the sports commentating world is realizing that winning the Big 12 is just not the same as winning one other 4. And that, if they stay with 4 teams for this playoffs, 4 is a lot better number of "power" conferences than 5.

So if Texas and Oklahoma find themselves dominating this box of cupcakes, but being told, well, yes, but... and if ESPN figures out it can pay Texas off to shut down this LN, then the Big 2 will find their way up to one of the power 4.

 

[A Cousin From Richmond]

I believe that in time the Big XII will not exist. The top teams from that league will go to other P5 conferences leading to a P4. All others will be a big step below.

Agreed.

 

[I Herd dat]

if the big 12 implodes, which is highly unlikely, it won't be for a least a decade when college football has a completely different look.

 

[WV_Celt]

Of the P5, the Big 12 is easily the weakest and most likely to fall apart. It is completely dependent on the whims of UT, and that is its greatest weakness.