Excellent breakdown of CUSA (old and new) versus The Sun Belt (old and new)

[Chris McLaughlin]

Guess what? Big news. I'm leaving. What Southern Miss going to the Sun Belt will mean going forward

NOTE: many of these stats, hypotheticals, graphs, etc. are assuming Little Rock and UT-Arlington leave the league as has been reported . Map...

catfishpo-boy.blogspot.com

Some highlights:

Football

The expanded Sun Belt will be a step up in football competition from Conference USA. Current C-USA's 4-year FPI average (2017-20) + incomplete 2021 results (2017-20) is 100 --- bottom of FBS. A Sun Belt with USM, Marshall, JMU, and Old Dominion is 3rd in the G5 behind the AAC and MWC and within striking distance of both for top conference in the G5. The Sun Belt has done a good job in producing elite G5 teams despite the lack of a NY6 bowl appearance in the conference. 6 Sun Belt teams (App x3, ULL x2, Coastal x1) have finished top 45 nationally in FPI since 2018 while C-USA has had none in that span. Coastal and App State are in position to finish in the top 45 in 2021.

So, initially, the East will be the tougher of the two divisions by a bit. The 2017-21 average of the East is 86.3 compared to the west having an average of 100.1. 4 of the top 5 programs from 2017-21 will be in the East while 3 of the bottom 4 programs will be in the West. This spreadsheet also supports the idea that James Madison can be competitive immediately. Couple this with quality facilities, a robust budget, and good fan support (they'd be top 3-4 in football attendance in the new league at 23,000+), you see why they were added.

Basketball

C-USA 3.0 was a 1-bid league every year and this will be the case in an expanded Sun Belt unless one team were to put together a gaudy profile and land an at-large bid. The 4-year KenPom average (2018-2021) in C-USA is 0.08 --- i.e. a very slightly above average D1 conference. The 4-year KenPom average in Sun Belt without Little Rock and UT-Arlington and with Southern Miss, Marshall, ODU, and JMU is -1.79 --- a slightly below average D1 conference. But the reality is both are one bid conferences. The new Sun Belt will just be a touch easier one than C-USA in current form.

Budget

Here is the USA TODAY budget link for 2020: https://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/finances

 

[Herdmaster]

Thank you so much for posting and attaching the data from catfishpo-boy. After reviewing it in detail it does make very good logical sense for Marshall to join the Sun Belt Conference. I especially like the map with the schools approximate locations. Marshall fans will now have a very good chance to see more games in person, especially those who are located in the Carolinas and Georgia. GO HERD!!!

 

[oldeherd]

One tentative or possible factor as to both JMU's athletic budget AND whether or not they make the move to FBS football AND to the SBC is just this: recent articles in both the Richmond and Roanoke, Virginia papers indicated that as recently as the 2017-18 season, JMU students paid over $2300 in Athletic "Fees" yearly! One media source noted that these fees were the THIRD Highest in the Nation! Apparently, under current law in Virginia JMU can use student fees to fund up to about 70 per cent of its Athletic costs while in FCS. However, by law this has to drop down to about 55 per cent if they move to FBS. A big factor for the school's administration, fans, alumni, etc., to consider.

 

[Mako2]

Are the student fees the reason for JMU and ODU's athletic budgets? Those are way out of whack with the rest of the Sun Belt teams.

 

[Chris McLaughlin]

Are the student fees the reason for JMU and ODU's athletic budgets? Those are way out of whack with the rest of the Sun Belt teams.

Yes.

 

[Catfanatic1979v1]

I want to see Brad Smith increase our athletic budget. I don't want to be middle of the pack anymore. I don't think we have ever been in the top third in any conference when comparing budgets. I hope new leadership changes this!

 

[Herd Insider]

My only regret is purely for recruiting purposes, that we did not take a FLA school with us.

 

[IslandHerd1]

My only regret is purely for recruiting purposes, that we did not take a FLA school with us.

Don’t need a FL school, just need to schedule Florida, Miami, USF, FSU