fyi Charles Huff..

[sluggo72]

Charles Huff has been superb this season at Marshall, has the Herd atop the Sun Belt Conference Eastern Division standings and should be undefeated in league play if not for a late letdown against Georgia Southern. The Herd have won six of their last seven and control their destiny to play for the Sun Belt Conference crown.

from Football Scoop.com

 

[Rock98Dog]

I’m just going to point out something, take it however you want.

There are currently 7 teams over .500 and 7 teams that are .500 or worse in the conference. We are 0-1 against the first group and 5-0 against the second group.

We missed the best 4 teams in the west and have so far only played one of the other 3 top teams in the east.

If we lose the next 2 we will be 0-3 against teams with a winning conference record and 5-0 against the bad teams. That means we are the most average team in the conference.

If we beat ODU and lose to JMU it means we are the 5th or 6th best team this year.

To me, being between the 5th and 8th best team in a 14 team conference isn’t close to acceptable. If we don’t win the next two it will be another blah, useless, wasted season.

 

[whf2]

I don't know if you gent's watch SBC football continuously like I do, but Marshall has one of the very top "grid it out" teams in the conference, not (however) among the top big play teams. When we contain the big plays, we win with our grind it out capabilities. ODU and JMU are both proud of some big play games this year, but candidly, neither have played anyone in the conference with the closing speed of our DBs and Safeties. Now, their both also good JAC teams, which is a downfall of ours. Both away is a problem, I'm not a betting person, but if I were, and we were at home, I'd take the Herd in both games. So I'm saying its 60/40 for us on both their fields.

 

[bris1112]

saw this today and thought it was interesting.

What is stop rate? It's a basic measurement of success: the percentage of a defense's drives that end in punts, turnovers or a turnover on downs. Defensive coordinators have the same goal regardless of their scheme, opponent or conference: prevent points and get off the field. Stop rate is a simple metric but can offer a good reflection of a defense's effectiveness on a per-drive basis in today's faster-tempo game.

Last year, national champ Michigan finished No. 1 with a stop rate of 81.6% in its games against FBS opponents. The top 25 teams in the final 2023 stop rate standings won a total of 249 games, with seven earning conference titles. Great teams find a way to get stops in critical situations.

Team	Games	Stop Rate	Pts/Drive
1. Notre Dame	10	81.7%	0.95
2. Ohio State	10	81.7%	0.86
3. Army	8	80.6%	1.18
4. Texas	10	79.7%	0.94
5. Tennessee	9	77.8%	1.19
6. James Madison	9	76.1%	1.40
7. Ole Miss	9	75.2%	1.18
8. Indiana	9	74.5%	1.38
9. Alabama	9	74.3%	1.33
10. Sam Houston	10	74.2%	1.51
11. Oregon	10	72.8%	1.38
12. Iowa State	9	72.3%	1.58
13. Miami (OH)	10	71.4%	1.53
13. Penn State	10	71.4%	1.28
15. South Carolina	10	71.3%	1.52
16. Colorado	9	71.2%	1.64
17. Tulane	10	71.1%	1.49
18. Oklahoma	9	70.8%	1.50
19. Northern Illinois	9	70.6%	1.46
20. Utah	9	70.4%	1.57
21. Virginia Tech	10	70.4%	1.77
22. Iowa	9	70%	1.53
23. UConn	9	69.5%	1.49
24. SMU	9	69.4%	1.82
25. Clemson	10	69.1%	1.74
26. Wisconsin	9	69.1%	1.75
27. Duke	9	68.9%	1.65
28. Louisiana Tech	9	68.9%	1.68
29. Nebraska	9	68.8%	1.86
30. Ohio	9	68.6%	1.69
30. California	9	68.6%	1.81
32. Auburn	9	68%	1.71
33. Navy	9	68%	1.94
33. Texas State	9	68%	1.60
35. Houston	10	67.8%	1.83
36. Western Kentucky	9	67.7%	1.96
37. Toledo	9	67.5%	1.63
38. Colorado State	9	67.3%	1.95
39. Texas A&M	9	67%	1.72
40. Minnesota	9	66.7%	1.72
40. Kansas State	9	66.7%	1.95
40. Missouri	9	66.7%	1.89
43. UNLV	9	66.4%	1.95
44. Rice	9	66.3%	1.86
45. BYU	9	66%	1.75
46. Kentucky	9	65.9%	1.82
47. Boise State	9	65.7%	2.07
48. Pittsburgh	9	65.5%	1.97
49. Florida International	9	65.4%	1.92
49. Marshall	9	65.4%	1.9

 

[Rock98Dog]

Stop rate is an indicator that declines rapidly in predictability when you start getting under 70%. It’s fairly obvious from your table, only 22 teams at 70% or better, then 27 teams between 69.9 and 65.4%. Those 27 teams are a mix of good, average, and bad teams.

The average team has 11-12 possessions a game. I think that looking at defensive points allowed isn’t really different from stop rate. Both tell you who has the most effective defenses where it matters most.

 

[riflearm2]

I think that looking at defensive points allowed isn’t really different from stop rate. Both tell you who has the most effective defenses where it matters most.

They are both, not entirely but significantly, junk stats.

Let's say Team A has a really good offense. Their offense scores a lot or drives long enough to flip the field and give the opposing offense bad field position a lot of the time.

Team B has a putrid offense. They turn the ball over (putting their defense in short-field situations), don't put together drives/gain yards which means the opposing offense routinely gets great field position.

Team A's defense could start a drive at the opposing 10 yard line, allow a 70 yard drive, and only give up a field goal.
Team B's defense could start a drive at midfield, allow a 20 yard drive, and only give up a field goal.

Yet based on the stats you are championing (defensive points allowed and stop rate), both defenses would be tied even though one is far superior than the other.

At Footballoutsiders.com, we had a very good stat that looked at yards given up vs. remaining yards possibly gained at the start of a drive. I saw "we," because I discovered a logical error with one of their stats more than a decade ago. They partially agreed and spun that to a new stat, found out I was a coach, and frequently used me for consulting and testing. Unfortunately, after selling the site, the new owners went bankrupt, and it is gone. It was, by far, the best football site out there made by a bunch of Brown University alums.

Back to the example: In other words, Team A would allow 70 yards. Team B would allow 20 yards. Both would get stops and be given the same score using your stats, yet one defense was far better than the other.

Team A would have allowed 70 yards out of a possible 90 yards while Team B would have allowed 20 yards out of a possible 50 yards. Team B was far better.

End of half drives/junk drives would be excluded.

 

[bris1112]

I'm not really making a point about MU's defense or championing any stats.
I just thought it was interesting.

In a game like App St - they have 11 drives and 5 TDs / FG not a great stop rate
vs a Ga Southern game where they had 13 drives 3 TDs / FG

 

[Rock98Dog]

The top twenty scoring defenses are a combined 166-44 so far this season, so I wouldn’t consider it a junk stat. In that group, only Auburn, at #20 and 4-6, has a losing record.

 

[caliherd]

I’m just going to point out something, take it however you want.

There are currently 7 teams over .500 and 7 teams that are .500 or worse in the conference. We are 0-1 against the first group and 5-0 against the second group.

We missed the best 4 teams in the west and have so far only played one of the other 3 top teams in the east.

If we lose the next 2 we will be 0-3 against teams with a winning conference record and 5-0 against the bad teams. That means we are the most average team in the conference.

If we beat ODU and lose to JMU it means we are the 5th or 6th best team this year.

To me, being between the 5th and 8th best team in a 14 team conference isn’t close to acceptable. If we don’t win the next two it will be another blah, useless, wasted season.

Always moving the goal posts on coach huff. Look at the pre season predictions on here by all you Nick Saban wannabes. Losses to Appy coastal etc. etc. We are a colossal collapse by Marshall from having our only 2 losses being against Va tech a game we were in the whole game, and Ohio state who has a good chance at winning the national championship.

Very few of our resident Saban had Marshall with one loss and a great chance at winning the division with 2 games left. Now it’s well we haven’t beaten anybody in our conference that’s good but ODU and JMU are? Who decided JMU and ODU were world beaters? The same JMU team that put 70 on unc put 13 on Gardner Webb. Also they lost to ULM, a team we beat. I think huff has had a lot to prove this year but sans the Ga Southern game he’s done well.

I’ll admit it I wasn’t thinking we were going to do much this year. After Ga Southern I thought he may be regressing. But he completely righted the ship. Is he a great coach?, no not yet, but he’s definitely getting better. If he wins the next 2 I think he will have done a remarkable job this year dealing with the roster turn over etc. But something tells me even if he wins the next 2 many of you still wont give him any credit and you will move the goal posts further to try and discredit him.

I don’t know why I’m surprised we have people in the soccer thread criticizing Coach Grassie as he prepares Marshall soccer for yet another NCAA tournament appearance. I mean the guy has only kept us ranked in the top 10 for years, won a national championship, Im sure guys that coached their 12 year old daughters travel team know more than him.

But buck up haters maybe Huff will win the next 2 and the championship game and a bowl and some p5 will come and take him off your plate. So you can find a new coach to hate.

 

[Rock98Dog]

Our schedule has worked out to be very weak because App and Coastal have both had bad seasons. Sagarin currently has us with the 2nd weakest SOS in the conference and that’s with Ohio State and VT.

I’m not saying we aren’t, or can’t have a good season. I’m just saying we haven’t proven anything yet.

My pre-season prediction was 6-6. I figured we would lose to OSU and VT and be 2-2 non-conference. I guessed we would lose 4 of our 6 east games. Holding serve at 3-0 in our division home games puts in a position where we are currently one game above where I thought we would be, but I didn’t figure App and Coastal would be sub .500 teams this year.

So yeah, if we finish 7-5 then I chalk that up more to two traditionally good opponents being down rather than Huff being a miracle worker. If we go 9-3 then he had a really strong performance.

 

[Aaron Perkins]

Our schedule has worked out to be very weak because App and Coastal have both had bad seasons. Sagarin currently has us with the 2nd weakest SOS in the conference and that’s with Ohio State and VT.

I’m not saying we aren’t, or can’t have a good season. I’m just saying we haven’t proven anything yet.

My pre-season prediction was 6-6. I figured we would lose to OSU and VT and be 2-2 non-conference. I guessed we would lose 4 of our 6 east games. Holding serve at 3-0 in our division home games puts in a position where we are currently one game above where I thought we would be, but I didn’t figure App and Coastal would be sub .500 teams this year.

So yeah, if we finish 7-5 then I chalk that up more to two traditionally good opponents being down rather than Huff being a miracle worker. If we go 9-3 then he had a really strong performance.

Wins can’t be wins can they. Nope. Now those are even conditional.

We may very well finish 7-5. Who knows. But the fact remains we have a coach that has us on solid ground and if he so chooses, we should be grateful to have him back next year.

 

[riflearm2]

The top twenty scoring defenses are a combined 166-44 so far this season, so I wouldn’t consider it a junk stat. In that group, only Auburn, at #20 and 4-6, has a losing record.

But the question isn’t about if a team is good. The question is about comparing defenses. And points allowed is not a good stat to identify that.

If a defense doesn’t give up many points, there is a good chance the team has a good record. But a lot of that defense’s success in not allowing points is determined also by the offense: if the offense doesn’t turn the ball over in their own zone, if the offense has sustained drives and/or flips the field.

 

[W-S HerdFan]

The one thing imo that Huff is well above average & has proven out again this season is his ability to bring in talent. He seems to be able to navigate the portal & NIL very efficiently. Don’t know how things play out at season’s end, but there are many x’s & o’s HC’s struggling in this new space….

 

[The Real SamC]

Always moving the goal posts on coach huff.

No, the goal post remains right where it has always been.

We play for championships.

CH has parlayed an ultra weak schedule, beating a I-AA, a 5-6 WMU, a 4-5 Appy (a certain loss to Liberty was Hurricaned out), a 2-8 Georgia State, a 5-5 ULM, a 1-9 USM, and a 5-5 Coastal. Now he gets a similarly mediocre 4-6 ODU, and closes out with 8-2 JMU.

7-5, most probably. Maybe 8-4. No wins over winning teams. I said 6-6 before they year, and look to have been off by one game. OK. Fine, celebrate mediocrity. It is nothing to brag about, and no P4 team has a flight to HTS booked to take a look.

We are.....stuck with this guy.