A note on WVU. If some of you are right and they wind up in the AAC or somehow on the outside looking in, I will not lose any sleep. My original point was to warn against this gleeful anticipation that their delusional fans are going to get their comeuppance. I still say it is almost certainly not going to happen. They will struggle to ever again be relevant on the level they have been 4-5 times in their past in this new landscape. They will fall into the lower half of the new power level for all the reasons you all mention. However, I still think they are comfortably above the cut line when the split comes along.
Maryland was the swing vote to keep them out of the ACC the first time around. The landscape has vastly changed now. The ACC will need to strike to add competitive teams and have precious few options if Notre Dame says no. Who else is out there for them? Cincinnati? UCF (FSU would not allow it)?
I get my financial data from the Knight Commission Database. WVU's total athletic revenue has risen 32% from 2014 to 2019, outpacing the rate their expenses have risen. Their total revenue is $102.68 million with only 4% coming from student fees and none of it from government sources. They bring in 19% or $19 million each from ticket sales and donations. Those are healthy numbers that compare very favorably to many programs in the ACC (clearly ahead of teams like NC State and Georgia Tech and in line with teams like VT).
As for fans, I am sure they have had ups and downs as most programs outside the elite do, but they are somewhere in the 30th range for 5 year average. I am not saying they are some juggernaut. We are all very likely to see them struggle for the next 20 years to compete in this new environment. However, with the numbers above and the strength of their basketball program, if you are waiting for them to be jettisoned to a non-power league, you are going to have a long wait.
Once more, if this rang true (and honestly, the ACC has access to numbers and data a simple google search can't dig up), wvu would be in already.
Instead, wvu cries, "Our history with Pitt, VT, and Miami!!!"
A single game a year can be scheduled as an OOC game, and likely in a location where revenue can be more lucrative.
It already is heading that way with wvu getting PSU, VT, and Pitt in OOC games.
Its most likely to keep them that way.
Texas and OU certainly showed just the value of association of their brands, were at least half of the total revenue of the conference itself. Upon their departure the value of the Big 12 was cut in half. HALF!
This includes lucrative financial programs like OSU, Baylor, Kansas, and TCU.
Do you honestly believe wvu has more value than they do?
I think a better time frame would be to look at wvu's years in the BE when they were decent.
Unless your name is UK, Duke, UNC, Kansas, and a very slight handful of others, it doesn't mean a thing nowadays. Jim Boeheim even spoke out against it, and clearly knows basketball has taken a back seat. wvu has a decent basketball team but certainly not something that they can boast true value from.
wvu doesn't have the power nor financials to convince ESPN to re-draw a TV deal for an entire conference that say...Notre Dame does.
Also, wvu is hardly a darling of ESPN, considering their "Requiem for the Big East" had a stereotypical presentation of wvu as a bunch of dumb backwoods rednecks...so much so either the SGA president or someone like him, wrote to ESPN, demanding an apology and demanding ESPN to a special on the glory of wvu sports.
I imagine the ESPN semi-higher ups passed out in laughter.
You're more likely to see the ACC get raided next for its top money making teams (ACC is very top heavy as it is). Several teams will head to the SEC for their money making ability, some will go to the Big 10, and the rest will be left to pasture, wvu included.
