So, I have to post this, blatantly stolen from another board because I've been watching this guys predictions for quite a few seasons and quite frankly he's usually really good. Sadly , or rather, in reality I agree with 7-5 to 8-4. We just aren't that good to win CUSA. Too young at too many key positions and no D Reeves to bail us out with a huge play. Still a decent season for a young Soph QB and team that shows they will fight to the bitter end if nothing else.
From Ought 3s own words starting below....
40 days before "The Joan" roars to life, your humble nerd has surfaced once again from the Nerdery to present another installment of crunched numbers. These projections are based on how much better or worse a team might be, given their loss of starters and key contributors as well as changes in conference and OOC schedule. That drives their offensive and defensive stats up or down. Each team plays a game against "Median U" who represents the most perfectly middling college imaginable. A team's score +/- is based on how they would fare in a neutral location against the Median team.
Headline: "Southern Miss and WKU Top Their Divisions; Herd Tied for 2nd With MTSU"
Team RTG Div.
Western Kentucky -2 E
Middle Tenn. -5 E
Marshall -6 E
Fla. Atlantic -9 E
FIU -9 E
Old Dominion -10 E
Charlotte -13 E
Southern Miss. -3 W
UTSA -5 W
Louisiana Tech -6 W
UTEP -7 W
Rice -9 W
North Texas -11 W
You can see that the raw data technically has MU 3rd, but this formula does not take venue into account, and the Blue Raiders visit Huntington on 11/12, so it could very well go MU's way. That same logic does not hold for WKU, who will likely come to Huntington favored.
Headline: "MU Record May Hinge on One Game"
Opp Rtg Ven Res
Morgan St. x H WIN
Akron -7 H WIN
Louisville 2 H LOSS
Pittsburgh -4 A LOSS
North Texas -11 A WIN
FAU -9 H WIN
Charlotte -13 H WIN
Southern Miss. -3 A LOSS
Old Dominion -10 A WIN
MTSU -5 H ***
FIU -9 A WIN
WKU -2 H LOSS
Based on this, the MTSU game will determine whether the Herd has a 7-5 or 8-4 regular season record - barring any upsets either way. I'd sure like to see Pitt come to Huntington instead of us go there.
Superlatives:
Most Over-Valued: Rice Owls
The Owls will be lucky to make bowl eligibility much less challenge for the West title. They open at WKU and then two weeks later have to host Baylor. I don't care what kind of home-field adv they have, it won't be enough. Road trips to Louisiana Tech and Stanford also loom large. Yes, they have a lot of starters back, but they are breaking in a new QB who is built like Chase Litton, but that's about where the similarities end.
On The Move: UTSA Roadrunners
I have a feeling about this team. They have a new coach, and traded in an absolutely murderous OOC schedule last year ( Arizona, Kansas St., Oklahoma St., Colorado St.) for a slightly less murderous one (Alabama St., Colorado St., Arizona St., and Texas A&M). They get ODU and Charlotte from the East and give me every reason to believe that if the defense doesn't drop off too significantly, they could surprise. A win at Rice on 10/15 would certainly validate this article.
Predicted Champion Southern Miss
It's simple, the only serious title contenders on Southern Miss' schedule are Marshall and LA Tech - and the Eagles get both of them at home. Other than a couple of tough OOC games in the SEC, the rest of their schedule plays out as follows: Savannah St., Troy, UTEP, Rice, UTSA, Charlotte, ODU, and North Texas. They have the talent and the schedule to roll into the title game.
Final Analysis: This year's team has talent, but is inexperienced in some places where we need experience - especially on defense. How this team deals with adversity, and the end of each month will bring plenty, will say a lot about their final fortunes. Chances are still good that the Herd will go bowling. As far as titles go, I think we're one year away.
See you in October!
Logged
From Ought 3s own words starting below....
40 days before "The Joan" roars to life, your humble nerd has surfaced once again from the Nerdery to present another installment of crunched numbers. These projections are based on how much better or worse a team might be, given their loss of starters and key contributors as well as changes in conference and OOC schedule. That drives their offensive and defensive stats up or down. Each team plays a game against "Median U" who represents the most perfectly middling college imaginable. A team's score +/- is based on how they would fare in a neutral location against the Median team.
Headline: "Southern Miss and WKU Top Their Divisions; Herd Tied for 2nd With MTSU"
Team RTG Div.
Western Kentucky -2 E
Middle Tenn. -5 E
Marshall -6 E
Fla. Atlantic -9 E
FIU -9 E
Old Dominion -10 E
Charlotte -13 E
Southern Miss. -3 W
UTSA -5 W
Louisiana Tech -6 W
UTEP -7 W
Rice -9 W
North Texas -11 W
You can see that the raw data technically has MU 3rd, but this formula does not take venue into account, and the Blue Raiders visit Huntington on 11/12, so it could very well go MU's way. That same logic does not hold for WKU, who will likely come to Huntington favored.
Headline: "MU Record May Hinge on One Game"
Opp Rtg Ven Res
Morgan St. x H WIN
Akron -7 H WIN
Louisville 2 H LOSS
Pittsburgh -4 A LOSS
North Texas -11 A WIN
FAU -9 H WIN
Charlotte -13 H WIN
Southern Miss. -3 A LOSS
Old Dominion -10 A WIN
MTSU -5 H ***
FIU -9 A WIN
WKU -2 H LOSS
Based on this, the MTSU game will determine whether the Herd has a 7-5 or 8-4 regular season record - barring any upsets either way. I'd sure like to see Pitt come to Huntington instead of us go there.
Superlatives:
Most Over-Valued: Rice Owls
The Owls will be lucky to make bowl eligibility much less challenge for the West title. They open at WKU and then two weeks later have to host Baylor. I don't care what kind of home-field adv they have, it won't be enough. Road trips to Louisiana Tech and Stanford also loom large. Yes, they have a lot of starters back, but they are breaking in a new QB who is built like Chase Litton, but that's about where the similarities end.
On The Move: UTSA Roadrunners
I have a feeling about this team. They have a new coach, and traded in an absolutely murderous OOC schedule last year ( Arizona, Kansas St., Oklahoma St., Colorado St.) for a slightly less murderous one (Alabama St., Colorado St., Arizona St., and Texas A&M). They get ODU and Charlotte from the East and give me every reason to believe that if the defense doesn't drop off too significantly, they could surprise. A win at Rice on 10/15 would certainly validate this article.
Predicted Champion Southern Miss
It's simple, the only serious title contenders on Southern Miss' schedule are Marshall and LA Tech - and the Eagles get both of them at home. Other than a couple of tough OOC games in the SEC, the rest of their schedule plays out as follows: Savannah St., Troy, UTEP, Rice, UTSA, Charlotte, ODU, and North Texas. They have the talent and the schedule to roll into the title game.
Final Analysis: This year's team has talent, but is inexperienced in some places where we need experience - especially on defense. How this team deals with adversity, and the end of each month will bring plenty, will say a lot about their final fortunes. Chances are still good that the Herd will go bowling. As far as titles go, I think we're one year away.
See you in October!
