fyi Charles Huff..
- By riflearm2
- Herd Nation
- 92 Replies
I think that looking at defensive points allowed isn’t really different from stop rate. Both tell you who has the most effective defenses where it matters most.
They are both, not entirely but significantly, junk stats.
Let's say Team A has a really good offense. Their offense scores a lot or drives long enough to flip the field and give the opposing offense bad field position a lot of the time.
Team B has a putrid offense. They turn the ball over (putting their defense in short-field situations), don't put together drives/gain yards which means the opposing offense routinely gets great field position.
Team A's defense could start a drive at the opposing 10 yard line, allow a 70 yard drive, and only give up a field goal.
Team B's defense could start a drive at midfield, allow a 20 yard drive, and only give up a field goal.
Yet based on the stats you are championing (defensive points allowed and stop rate), both defenses would be tied even though one is far superior than the other.
At Footballoutsiders.com, we had a very good stat that looked at yards given up vs. remaining yards possibly gained at the start of a drive. I saw "we," because I discovered a logical error with one of their stats more than a decade ago. They partially agreed and spun that to a new stat, found out I was a coach, and frequently used me for consulting and testing. Unfortunately, after selling the site, the new owners went bankrupt, and it is gone. It was, by far, the best football site out there made by a bunch of Brown University alums.
Back to the example: In other words, Team A would allow 70 yards. Team B would allow 20 yards. Both would get stops and be given the same score using your stats, yet one defense was far better than the other.
Team A would have allowed 70 yards out of a possible 90 yards while Team B would have allowed 20 yards out of a possible 50 yards. Team B was far better.
End of half drives/junk drives would be excluded.