Putin may not be done in Ukraine. He may eye the Baltics

[i am herdman]

Reports are coming in that if he can take Ukraine easily and looking and the size and scope of his force, hey may eye Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. He has massed an incredible sizeable force and the Baltic flank with NATO is exposed if he steamrolls Ukraine.

It is NATO and he may test the allies resolves.

Our nation and NATO are not prepaired. We don't have the size of Army nor the mechanzied forces in Europe to get there.

This is growing into a major concern. We may be in a worl of hurt. This is as serious as it can be.

 

[johns1124]

That's why you start bombing now. As soon as he crosses the border start air support.

I don't think taking and holding Ukraine is going to be as easy as some think. The insurgency will be daunting.

 

[HerdandHokies]

That's why you start bombing now. As soon as he crosses the border start air support.

I don't think taking and holding Ukraine is going to be as easy as some think. The insurgency will be daunting.

We are not entering a hot war with Russia over Ukraine. That would be insane.

 

[SamSwimmer]

We are not entering a hot war with Russia over Ukraine. That would be insane.

Given the amount of arms we’ve pumped into region, how much will end up in the hands of the Russians? Probably won’t be as much as we handed over in Afghanistan

 

[johns1124]

We are not entering a hot war with Russia over Ukraine. That would be insane.

Russia does not want a war with the US, as much as we don't want a war with them. They don't think we will go that far. Need to prove we will. In a non-nuclear conventional war with the US, Russia would lose hands down. They know this.

 

[HerdandHokies]

Russia does not want a war with the US, as much as we don't want a war with them. They don't think we will go that far. Need to prove we will. In a non-nuclear conventional war with the US, Russia would lose hands down. They know this.

Yes, they do know it. Which is why it wouldn’t happen that way. Nukes would be a foregone conclusion in a full out war.

 

[johns1124]

Yes, they do know it. Which is why it wouldn’t happen that way. Nukes would be a foregone conclusion in a full out war.

Never get to that. Then he (we) would lose it all. Like I stated yesterday. The only way Russia uses nukes is if their existence is in jeopardy.

 

[HerdandHokies]

Never get to that. Then he (we) would lose it all. Like I stated yesterday. The only way Russia uses nukes is if their existence is in jeopardy.

Such as, for example, during a large scale conventional war with the west?

Edit: do not underestimate Putin’s ability to assume that Russians would be willing to see a nuclear war through longer than the west.

 

[johns1124]

Such as, for example, during a large scale conventional war with the west?

Edit: do not underestimate Putin’s ability to assume that Russians would be willing to see a nuclear war through longer than the west.

I didn't know the nuclear war was "longer". I didn't know it got better over time.

I see it is a one-shot thing. I'm not sure how Putin would think Russia would be better off when 85% of the worlds nuclear powers are in NATO.

 

[HerdandHokies]

At the end of the day I don’t think MAD doctrine would be followed through on. The west wouldn’t immediately launch all nukes at Russia and they wouldn’t launch all their nukes at us. It would go tit for tat with escalation until someone folded. First a couple strategic locations that are less populated, then some less strategic, more populated targets, and finally direct bombing of civilian centers.

That’s simply my opinion on how things would go. But if it’s also Putin’s opinion on how things would go, and he believes that the west is less willing to continue a nuclear war than Russia, he could think he would win it with “acceptable” casualties for whatever he would gain.

 

[herdfan06]

Reports are coming in that if he can take Ukraine easily and looking and the size and scope of his force, hey may eye Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. He has massed an incredible sizeable force and the Baltic flank with NATO is exposed if he steamrolls Ukraine.

It is NATO and he may test the allies resolves.

Our nation and NATO are not prepaired. We don't have the size of Army nor the mechanzied forces in Europe to get there.

This is growing into a major concern. We may be in a worl of hurt. This is as serious as it can be.

Stretch them thin, then slaughter them?

 

[wvkeeper(HN)]

So unserious.

 

[Jartard]

Reports are coming in that if he can take Ukraine easily and looking and the size and scope of his force, hey may eye Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. He has massed an incredible sizeable force and the Baltic flank with NATO is exposed if he steamrolls Ukraine.

It is NATO and he may test the allies resolves.

Our nation and NATO are not prepaired. We don't have the size of Army nor the mechanzied forces in Europe to get there.

This is growing into a major concern. We may be in a worl of hurt. This is as serious as it can be.

We had a leader once upon a time:

 

[i am herdman]

This is a catosrtpohic foreign relations error by the USA and this administration. A catosrophic error on monumental proprotions.

In one year's time we have a foreign relations disaster. This is an unbelievable ingorant and incompetent adminstration. Joe Biden is the worst President in the modern era of American history.

Your world has just changed.

 

[wvkeeper(HN)]

 

[wvkeeper(HN)]

 

[extragreen]

We had a leader once upon a time:

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You're an idiot.

 

[extragreen]

This is a catosrtpohic foreign relations error by the USA and this administration. A catosrophic error on monumental proprotions.

In one year's time we have a foreign relations disaster. This is an unbelievable ingorant and incompetent adminstration. Joe Biden is the worst President in the modern era of American history.

Your world has just changed.

You're an idiot. oath breaker

 

[GoHerdMarshallYes]

Russia does not want a war with the US, as much as we don't want a war with them. They don't think we will go that far. Need to prove we will. In a non-nuclear conventional war with the US, Russia would lose hands down. They know this.

If we went to war with them, it'd be much harder than many think to take them. It would cost a ton of money and resources just to get there and of course the conflicts themselves are going to be tough and result in lots of casualties.

 

[RhinoD]

Putin is a despite/dictator but he isn't dumb enough to attack NATO countries and ignite World War III... He is going to steamroll through Ukraine and take the regions he wants because he has support for it in his own country (reportedly about 70 percent of Russians view Ukraine as a part of Russia and not an independent country).

The next shoe that will drop if Putin successfully takes all or some of Ukraine?... Bye bye Belarus, which is even more closely connected to Russia, and is allowing Russia to launch missiles from its territory along the Ukraine border.

Put Belarus and Ukraine back in the USSR... Increase Russian influence in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, etc... If no one is going to stop you, why not?

 

[i am herdman]

Putin is a despite/dictator but he isn't dumb enough to attack NATO countries and ignite World War III... He is going to steamroll through Ukraine and take the regions he wants because he has support for it in his own country (reportedly about 70 percent of Russians view Ukraine as a part of Russia and not an independent country).

The next shoe that will drop if Putin successfully takes all or some of Ukraine?... Bye bye Belarus, which is even more closely connected to Russia, and is allowing Russia to launch missiles from its territory along the Ukraine border.

Put Belarus and Ukraine back in the USSR... Increase Russian influence in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, etc... If no one is going to stop you, why not?

Would NATO really do anything if he attacked the Balkans?

 

[i am herdman]

Putin is a despite/dictator but he isn't dumb enough to attack NATO countries and ignite World War III... He is going to steamroll through Ukraine and take the regions he wants because he has support for it in his own country (reportedly about 70 percent oussians view Ukraine as a part of Russia and not an independent country).

The next shoe that will drop if Putin successfully takes all or some of Ukraine?... Bye bye Belarus, which is even more closely connected to Russia, and is allowing Russia to launch missiles from its territory along the Ukraine border.

Put Belarus and Ukraine back in the USSR... Increase Russian influence in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, etc... If no one is going to stop you, why not?

Would NATO really do anything if he attacked the Baltics? Not so sure

 

[wvkeeper(HN)]

The EU won't even shut down SWIFT.

Scores of Western Europeans waking up in Russian heated homes ain't going to want to go cold.

 

[RhinoD]

Would NATO really do anything if he attacked the Baltics? Not so sure

Yes, they would... That has been the behind the scenes message for years -- If it's not a NATO country, NATO (more accurately, the US) won't stop you. IE Crimea, etc.

The cultural differences between the Baltic states and Russian/Belarus/Ukraine are also a huge factor... Most Russians consider Belarus and Ukraine "territories" that should be included as part of Russia, they have similar cultures, languages, etc... Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia are not held in the same regard. They are widely recognized as independent, even within Russia.

Now with that said, 20 years from now, if Belarus and Ukraine are once again part of Russia, who knows... But he wouldn't take the risk of aggression toward the Baltic states in the immediate future.

 

[Kate Branson]

Your world has just changed.

It doesn't seem like it. What does this really do to us?

This seems a lot better than the masks and shutdowns. The oil went way up so I guess gas will continue to do the same. High gas prices, but still no masks and shutdowns.

Hell, I hate to say it but overall this is way better than the masks and shutdowns. We have really moved on from the fake bird flu with this.

Well, time to play a game of computer Yahtzee and see if I can beat Bill.

 

[Raoul Duke MU]

Never get to that. Then he (we) would lose it all. Like I stated yesterday. The only way Russia uses nukes is if their existence is in jeopardy.

I'm not willing to bet my ass on that. Why?

I didn't know the nuclear war was "longer". I didn't know it got better over time.

Because there are schools of thought in both Russia and the US that a limited nuclear war is winnable. Which is frankly bullshit.

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Call me crazy, but I still think it is China. Long term and a greater theater of influence.

Yes, they would... That has been the behind the scenes message for years -- If it's not a NATO country, NATO (more accurately, the US) won't stop you. IE Crimea, etc.

The cultural differences between the Baltic states and Russian/Belarus/Ukraine are also a huge factor... Most Russians consider Belarus and Ukraine "territories" that should be included as part of Russia, they have similar cultures, languages, etc... Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia are not held in the same regard. They are widely recognized as independent, even within Russia.

Now with that said, 20 years from now, if Belarus and Ukraine are once again part of Russia, who knows... But he wouldn't take the risk of aggression toward the Baltic states in the immediate future.

An astute observation.