Marshall opens up as a 3.5 point road favorite against UNCG. On paper, from a record perspective, this looks like we should win easily. But I really believe this is a poor matchup for us. I know I'm inviting the inevitable ...if we're worried about a 4-6 team we're really in trouble...comments , but I believe that just like in football, there are good and bad matchups.
First off, UNCG is a horrible shooting team. They shoot 39% from the floor and 30% from the three. This probably explains their record. But where I'm concerned a bit is with their size. I watched the first half of UNCG's game vs a (now) 10-1 Miami (the real ones) team and they are very big inside. They start a 6' 10" 230 lb player, a 6' 9" 255 lb player, and their leading scorer is a 6' 6" swing guard/forward. The big 255 pound guy is a senior and plays very aggressive and is actually very athletic. This team led a good Miami team at half before eventually losing by 14. The team played at a very fast pace and looked similar to us in that regard.
The worry here is that Micah and/or OAK gets into early foul trouble leaving our "slenderish" players like Conner and Fricks to guard the paint against their big bodies. The UNCG team is a terrible shooting team, but I'm going to guess that their percentage increases near the rim whIch they will likely try to exploit if Micah goes to the bench. They don't get a ton of points from their big guy, but I could still see him getting them against us if we are short in our lineup with foul trouble. This is the matchup concern that I have and I think it contributes to Vegas only favoring us by 3.5 when the indexes (as Olen pointed out) favor us by closer to 8. Sean pointed out in an off board discussion that this might be a good time to get some minutes (and fouls) from Goran, but DD hasn't shown much interest in playing him to this point.
Anyway...if Micah and OAK don't get the early fouls and can stay on the floor we should be fine. We just need to be efficient on the offensive end, not have the unforced turnovers we had last game, play smart and not have silly fouls and we should be fine. Play like last game and we lose.