Hang On folks, here comes that global warming end of this week.
- Thread starter i am herdman
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I believe that would be climate change, not global warming. @Raoul Duke MU, correct me if I am wrong.
They had to change it when the warming slowed to levels far below their models.
This is factual.
Not at all. In all honesty, it should be just called "global warming" because simpletons cannot understand there are 30 different climate classifications, which are affected by a variety of variables. Yet still, globally the average temp has been rising and will continue to do so.
Being a white devil Europhile, Africa could burst into literal flames from warming and I would still be much more concerned about a very weakened AMOC...which ain't exactly going to warm certain places.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41...tGM=&tracking_referrer=www.washingtonpost.com
Nonetheless, I will be dead by the time the shit hits the fan, so fvck it, gonna buy me a 454 Suburban.
I don't really enjoy driving oil burners, but they do have their place. And rolling coal is just stupid, unless a mod is functional there is no fvcking point.fvck that, get something like this if you truly have zero fvcks to give.
Although this particular example is a 350 truck, this is pretty much my dream rig as far as Suburbans go, this exact paint combo...just make it the big honkin' 454 and it would be perfect.
This color combo would be a close second:
People have been banned for less.
There are so many bird brains in this country that think this Winter storm is because of American carbon emissions.
We can’t accurately forecast the weather 5 days out but by god we can predict the climate which is infinitely more complex
It's an actual cold as a witch's tit situation.
Interesting claim...I've been tracking the likelihood (very)* of this cold blast for two weeks now. Forget climate change...tell me what you know of this weather forecasting thing.
* models nailed this, FWIW.
Did I ever say the never get it right? 3 days ago they were talking about 1” of snow where a live. Had it in the 5 day forecast for today. They’ve dropped the temperature 10 degrees since Thursday. It’s all a guess based on a huge number of variables.
Yeah, up until it hit, snow totals ranged everywhere from 12-14 inches (last week) to 1-2 (yesterday). The 1-2 ended up being correct, but that wasn't firmed up until the event was almost here.
It was 34 last night, 19 this morning early, -1 now with terrible wind. Something crashed down in the dark early this morning but I’m not going out to find out what it was.
Cold in winter is usual. A 34+ degree drop in temperature in a matter of hours is not.
Shit’s never going to hit the fan as far as climate goes, but that’s a bad ass rig.I don't really enjoy driving oil burners, but they do have their place. And rolling coal is just stupid, unless a mod is functional there is no fvcking point.
Although this particular example is a 350 truck, this is pretty much my dream rig as far as Suburbans go, this exact paint combo...just make it the big honkin' 454 and it would be perfect.
This color combo would be a close second:
The issue for me is the hyperbolic nature of the predictions. They try to scare people into action and then time passes, what they said to scare you doesn’t happen, so many people tune out the whole issue.
There is a good article I’ll try to find that charts predictions made by various sources, real ones like the UN Climate Council, over the decades. In the 70s they say it’s irreversible by 1990. In 1980 they say we are doomed by 2000, then it became 2020 then 2030. They are already hedging out to 2050.
It’s that stuff that creates skeptics and erodes trust in “experts”.
There is a good article I’ll try to find that charts predictions made by various sources, real ones like the UN Climate Council, over the decades. In the 70s they say it’s irreversible by 1990. In 1980 they say we are doomed by 2000, then it became 2020 then 2030. They are already hedging out to 2050.
It’s that stuff that creates skeptics and erodes trust in “experts”.
That 12-14 inches looks pretty got damn accurate to me. Blizzard with damn near -40 or lower wind chills.
Also the hypocrisy. People like John Kerry flying around on a private jet telling us the world is in a climate crisis, and justifying it by saying "I'm an important man!"
This is awesome. The fact that Middle Class Murox liked it is even better.
Tell us, Banker, how is your complaint any different than a moron who predicts specific, catastrophic things “by fall,” then “in fall,” then “by winter,” then “in winter”?
At some point, sheer luck/coincidence/probability will allow the continuous changing of prediction times to align with reality . . . but that will probably happen when the predicted civil war happens.
Sheer luck! Coincidence!
So, despite hospitals being over capacity for the past 2 months -- higher than any point during the "pandemic" -- and all cause mortality 10-20% above baseline around the world, and covid season rapidly approaching, I'm going to eventually be right, but it will be "sheer luck."
That's quite an acknowledgement from someone who will write 20,000 words and post 40 obscure text messages to prove a point that could be much easier proven with a single picture.
Merry christmas, tubby. Be sure to tell all your family members not to get additional shots. Tell them the smartest person you know tried to warn everyone years ago.
My understanding was the American model for storm prediction had 12” while the European model had us around 2” (in Huntington). The European model is always more accurate for winter storms for us and tends to be more accurate for hurricanes in the Atlantic, too.
I can't remember a day colder or more miserable than yesterday. My unofficial (as observed on my car thermostat) high temperature was 1, with 35 mph winds. Just brutal weather. If that was a regular occurrence I would move south permanently.
Hey, rox. Did the Ohio do anything? My dad told me when he was a student at Marshall College, it got so cold one winter that the Ohio River actually froze over.
I never was a believer in this global warming/climate change crap. But I'm convinced now. In a 24 hour period the temp went from -1 to +5. Now that's global warming.
Winter ‘78. The Big Sandy froze enough that I knew a few people that walked across it. The Ohio didn’t have ice that thick, but it was frozen. Winter of ‘93 or ‘94 another of these polar vortexes came down and temps got into negative numbers, down to -10 if I remember correctly. I had been in Canada as it was moving down, temps in Winnipeg got down to -40, windchills were -65, now that’s cold!!
Climate is made up of fewer variables, as we are thinking of here, than weather. Climate: I can tell you it will be hot in the summer. Think of climate as mega-trends. Weather is HIGHLY variable. And that's without getting into weird stuff like heat domes, micro-climes, etc.
And variables get highly specific. Small changes in available moisture, etc.
Then you have the stuff we don't understand. Why do some supercells have all the ingredients for a tornado but don't produce? Why do some days not have all the ingredients but then produce half a dozen tornados?
Weather is weird. Long range forecasts are trash, except for trends, it was obvious the switch was getting flipped to bring that cold air in. Climate, not so weird. But even given the variables in weather forecasting, mets get it right far more than they get it wrong.
See below.
The GFS almost always over-exaggerates snow totals, sometimes hilariously so. NAM and HRRR are better, but are short range models. And as you get closer, you have to do math, SWE ratios, etc. It's not just looking at models.
It's happened along the Ohio since then too....
Here's the Ohio River at Cincy in January 1977:
The Ohio in Louisville, January 1978:
All I remember is there were two winters we had a LOT of time off from school.
Oh, it will hit the fan. Not in a Day After Tomorrow way, that's just silly. But there will be increased drought and famine in places, and that will lead to wars and social upheaval. By 2050, a quarter of the world's population will be African...and we know how well Africa handles drought and famine...which is a big reason I say the Chinese can have it, but the USA will be too stupid to let them have it because of the mineral wealth there.
I'm glad your fancy ass can appreciate a nice old school rig....you still have some hillbilly left in you
Climate is not simple with fewer variables. Get back to me when we can predict accurately sunspot activity volcanic eruptions etc. the predictions have been spelled the end of the world for the last 30 years but here we are nowhere close to what the predictions were. As a species we have no idea how to accurately predict the future and that’s exactly what we are trying to do with climate change and weather
You are the one that brought up weather forecasting and compared the two.
Volcanic eruptions? Sunspots? Yes, short term effects on climate...but neither truly change climate*, which is about long-term trends. The 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo caused global average temps to drop 0.4° C over two years...two years does not change climate. And that is more than the effect of sunspot activity, outside of a some historical oddities...I'd take another Maunder Minimum, effects be damned, I like it cold...and an uptick along with a strong El Nino can be a little nasty for a year or two.
Climate change? .2° C change per decade, going back a few decades...yeah that is enough to cause some longer term issues, as far as looking at a lifetime or two. We know this is not from sunspots nor volcanos. All of it is meaningless to the Earth, which will go on long after humans are nothing but fossils.
* A Deccan Traps type eruption would extinct our asses. That isn't climate, that is a geologic disaster. 6000' thick of flood basalts? Insane.
For you scientists, when it gets to -40 does it really matter if it gets any colder? I mean, cold is cold, and -40 is pretty cold.
I’m not a scientist, but I’ve slept at a Holiday Inn Express before! Having experienced it, I agree with your assessment!
I was off by one winterClimate is made up of fewer variables, as we are thinking of here, than weather. Climate: I can tell you it will be hot in the summer. Think of climate as mega-trends. Weather is HIGHLY variable. And that's without getting into weird stuff like heat domes, micro-climes, etc.
And variables get highly specific. Small changes in available moisture, etc.
Then you have the stuff we don't understand. Why do some supercells have all the ingredients for a tornado but don't produce? Why do some days not have all the ingredients but then produce half a dozen tornados?
Weather is weird. Long range forecasts are trash, except for trends, it was obvious the switch was getting flipped to bring that cold air in. Climate, not so weird. But even given the variables in weather forecasting, mets get it right far more than they get it wrong.
See below.
The GFS almost always over-exaggerates snow totals, sometimes hilariously so. NAM and HRRR are better, but are short range models. And as you get closer, you have to do math, SWE ratios, etc. It's not just looking at models.
It's happened along the Ohio since then too....
Here's the Ohio River at Cincy in January 1977:
The Ohio in Louisville, January 1978:
All I remember is there were two winters we had a LOT of time off from school.
I think you die a little quicker the colder it gets, even at that point. But you still die lol.
And you had mentioned 93 or 94...In 94 most of the river at Louisville froze. Keep in mind the Ohio is almost a mile wide here...so that's impressive.
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