In recent years we have seen a push back or tempering of expectations from Mike Hamrick, Doug Smock, mods on this board, and on others. We’re being told we shouldn’t expect to dominate CUSA. We shouldn’t have the bar set to championship or failure every season. We should realize that Marshall is doing what it can with what it has. In other words we should be happy with Beef O’ Brady bowls and 7-9 wins seasons with no hardware. It’s just not realistic.
So why do our fans behave like this. I’ll admit it. I’m one of them. While I can take a down or fluke type season. I hate them, but it happens. I can take a rebuilding season. Though we have had too many. That being said I like most of this fan base expect to at the very least be playing for the conference title at season’s end. I am not in the group that demands an Access Bowl every year as I realize that takes too many factors out of our control in order to do that year in and year out. However we should be one of the teams in that discussion. We should be winning the East more consistently and more often than not hoisting the CUSA Championship Trophy.
So am I just a fool in this belief? Am I entitled. Are fans like myself entitled. I don’t think so. Even if we are entitled there is a good reason for it.
First off the University and Athletic Dept has been selling the football program to fans, recruits, and players based on the motto, “We Play for Championships.” Not just going to bowls. Winning titles. That is the reason we play. We didn’t coin that motto. The Athletic Dept did. Heck Kroger used to have a banner hung on their store celebrating it.
Alright so it’s a motto. Lot’s of schools aspire and several expect to be conference champs. Well that’s true. However Marshall fans have been accustomed to winning. This isn’t wishful or even myopic thinking on our part. I know most of you know our history, but let’s check it out anyways.
From 1991 to 1996 Marshall played in 5 National Championship games (91,92,93,95,96) winning two (92,96).
From 1994 to 2002 Marshall won seven conference titles (SoCon 94,96 MAC 96,97,98,99,00,02) and played for another (Lost to Toledo in 01).
So in a 11 year span, in not so recent memory, Marshall won or played for a championship 12 out of those 12 seasons. In those years we didn’t win the SoCon we finished 2nd.
Over that 12 season span Marshall posted these records.
1991: 11-4
1992: 12-3
1993: 11-4
1994: 12-2
1995: 12-3
1996: 15-0
1997: 10-3
1998: 12-1
1999: 13-0
2000: 8-5
2001: 11-2
2002: 11-2
So 11 out of 12 seasons we posted 10 or more wins. For a record of 138-29 (.826)
So I guess that is why we are spoiled. In that time frame we were once ranked 10th FBS team in the nation. We also posted two other top25 rankings of 21st and 24th.
So what happened? Where did it come apart? Was our schedule just easier back then? We keep hearing how today’s CUSA is better than we think. Is it? Was the MAC opposition really not that great.
Here is the combined records of MAC teams we faced from 1997 to 2004 vs the CUSA teams we’ve played from 2013-2017. The reason I am using this time sample of CUSA is because that is where we are today. This is the CUSA iteration we’re being told is just as good if not better than the MAC. I think we all can agree if this were the CUSA we entered the league in or even Doc’s first couple of seasons of course it was stronger. However is today’s CUSA better?
From 1997-2004 the MAC teams we faced on our schedule were a combined 353-459 (.440) . If you look at just the championship seasons of 1997-2002 our faced opponents winning% is 274-339 (.447). Either sample you use the MAC teams appearing on our schedule were sub .500. Not really surprising.
Out of the 70 teams we faced only four finished the season with 10+ wins.
13 times we faced a team that finished with 8+ wins
31 of our opponents finished .500 or better at season’s end.
30 of those 31 were at least one game over .500.
We faced a ranked conference team one time. That was Little Miami who was #23 at the time and finished #12 in the Coaches and #10 in the AP.
Each season breaks down as follows.
1997: 44-56 (.440)
1998: 41-59 (.410)
1999: 44-57 (.436)
2000: 52-49 (.515)
2001: 48-53 (.475)
2002: 45-65 (.409)
2003: 44-54 (.449)
2004: 35-56 (.385)
From 2013-2017 the CUSA teams that we faced finished with a combined record of 249-279 (.472).
Of the 42 teams that we faced only six finished the season with 10+ wins
14 times we faced a team that finished with 8+ wins
23 of our opponents finished .500 or better at season’s end. 19 of those 23 finished over .500.
Not once did face a team that was ranked or finished ranked.
Each season breaks down as follows.
2013: 48-64 (.472)
2014: 53-59 (.473)
2015: 44-57 (.436)
2016: 52-50 (.510)
2017: 52-49 (.515)
So you compare the conferences and the argument could be made that they are comparable. Depending on which stat you look at either conference could be looked at as better, but only by the slightest of margins. I will say this. CUSA does appear to be trending up as the last two seasons our opponent’s winning% has been +.500 where that only happened once in the MAC (2000). Could that be a trend or is it the luck of the draw.
Now yes you could say this is a meaningless way to look at it because it doesn’t consider each conference on the totality of its teams. However that is not the point of this conversation or really the one that has been going on for the last several years. We didn’t play every team in conference. The questions has been who had the easiest road to win a title. The argument being made is that we’ve played better competition than we want to believe and out expectations should be tempered as a result. Fact is that isn’t true. The schedule faced as been comparable. One could make the argument that Doc has had the more talented roster to work with than Pruett did. Which is not a plus for Doc. It’s and indictment. Doc is brining in guys like JaQuan Yulee and has guys like AJ Leggett. Now Pruett did have Randy Moss, but only for one season of MAC play. Maybe Pruett was the better coach and developer of talent.
So why should we temper our expectations? CUSA is not better than the MAC. Not to the extent that we should no longer hold true to the standard of “We Play for Championships”. Our fans have good reason to hold this program to the standard they do. It was preached to us for nearly 20 years and the results overwhelmingly back it up. Then we look at 2013-2014. We’re 23-4 in that two year span with two title game appearances, a conference championship two bowl wins, and finished 2014 ranked #22 in the coaches and #23 in the AP with one win away from the Access Bowl. Now four seasons later we haven’t finished better than 3rd in our division.
Has the competition gotten better or has the leadership at Marshall declined? Is excellence no longer being demanded? Have we gone from being a flag bearer of the G5 to just happy to have a team, make a bowl, and hopefully peak every five seasons or so? I know some will say well we went from 2005-2012 being a terrible to at best average team. While that is true we were not being told to temper our expectations. Remember our AD going on TV holding up all the All-Time great football coaches that started out with terrible records trying to convince everyone to be patient with Snyder. Trying to draw parallels between Snyder and the likes of Lou Holtz, Frank Beamer, and I even think Tom Landry was on that list.
I don’t think it’s the fans that need to change their tune.
So why do our fans behave like this. I’ll admit it. I’m one of them. While I can take a down or fluke type season. I hate them, but it happens. I can take a rebuilding season. Though we have had too many. That being said I like most of this fan base expect to at the very least be playing for the conference title at season’s end. I am not in the group that demands an Access Bowl every year as I realize that takes too many factors out of our control in order to do that year in and year out. However we should be one of the teams in that discussion. We should be winning the East more consistently and more often than not hoisting the CUSA Championship Trophy.
So am I just a fool in this belief? Am I entitled. Are fans like myself entitled. I don’t think so. Even if we are entitled there is a good reason for it.
First off the University and Athletic Dept has been selling the football program to fans, recruits, and players based on the motto, “We Play for Championships.” Not just going to bowls. Winning titles. That is the reason we play. We didn’t coin that motto. The Athletic Dept did. Heck Kroger used to have a banner hung on their store celebrating it.
Alright so it’s a motto. Lot’s of schools aspire and several expect to be conference champs. Well that’s true. However Marshall fans have been accustomed to winning. This isn’t wishful or even myopic thinking on our part. I know most of you know our history, but let’s check it out anyways.
From 1991 to 1996 Marshall played in 5 National Championship games (91,92,93,95,96) winning two (92,96).
From 1994 to 2002 Marshall won seven conference titles (SoCon 94,96 MAC 96,97,98,99,00,02) and played for another (Lost to Toledo in 01).
So in a 11 year span, in not so recent memory, Marshall won or played for a championship 12 out of those 12 seasons. In those years we didn’t win the SoCon we finished 2nd.
Over that 12 season span Marshall posted these records.
1991: 11-4
1992: 12-3
1993: 11-4
1994: 12-2
1995: 12-3
1996: 15-0
1997: 10-3
1998: 12-1
1999: 13-0
2000: 8-5
2001: 11-2
2002: 11-2
So 11 out of 12 seasons we posted 10 or more wins. For a record of 138-29 (.826)
So I guess that is why we are spoiled. In that time frame we were once ranked 10th FBS team in the nation. We also posted two other top25 rankings of 21st and 24th.
So what happened? Where did it come apart? Was our schedule just easier back then? We keep hearing how today’s CUSA is better than we think. Is it? Was the MAC opposition really not that great.
Here is the combined records of MAC teams we faced from 1997 to 2004 vs the CUSA teams we’ve played from 2013-2017. The reason I am using this time sample of CUSA is because that is where we are today. This is the CUSA iteration we’re being told is just as good if not better than the MAC. I think we all can agree if this were the CUSA we entered the league in or even Doc’s first couple of seasons of course it was stronger. However is today’s CUSA better?
From 1997-2004 the MAC teams we faced on our schedule were a combined 353-459 (.440) . If you look at just the championship seasons of 1997-2002 our faced opponents winning% is 274-339 (.447). Either sample you use the MAC teams appearing on our schedule were sub .500. Not really surprising.
Out of the 70 teams we faced only four finished the season with 10+ wins.
13 times we faced a team that finished with 8+ wins
31 of our opponents finished .500 or better at season’s end.
30 of those 31 were at least one game over .500.
We faced a ranked conference team one time. That was Little Miami who was #23 at the time and finished #12 in the Coaches and #10 in the AP.
Each season breaks down as follows.
1997: 44-56 (.440)
1998: 41-59 (.410)
1999: 44-57 (.436)
2000: 52-49 (.515)
2001: 48-53 (.475)
2002: 45-65 (.409)
2003: 44-54 (.449)
2004: 35-56 (.385)
From 2013-2017 the CUSA teams that we faced finished with a combined record of 249-279 (.472).
Of the 42 teams that we faced only six finished the season with 10+ wins
14 times we faced a team that finished with 8+ wins
23 of our opponents finished .500 or better at season’s end. 19 of those 23 finished over .500.
Not once did face a team that was ranked or finished ranked.
Each season breaks down as follows.
2013: 48-64 (.472)
2014: 53-59 (.473)
2015: 44-57 (.436)
2016: 52-50 (.510)
2017: 52-49 (.515)
So you compare the conferences and the argument could be made that they are comparable. Depending on which stat you look at either conference could be looked at as better, but only by the slightest of margins. I will say this. CUSA does appear to be trending up as the last two seasons our opponent’s winning% has been +.500 where that only happened once in the MAC (2000). Could that be a trend or is it the luck of the draw.
Now yes you could say this is a meaningless way to look at it because it doesn’t consider each conference on the totality of its teams. However that is not the point of this conversation or really the one that has been going on for the last several years. We didn’t play every team in conference. The questions has been who had the easiest road to win a title. The argument being made is that we’ve played better competition than we want to believe and out expectations should be tempered as a result. Fact is that isn’t true. The schedule faced as been comparable. One could make the argument that Doc has had the more talented roster to work with than Pruett did. Which is not a plus for Doc. It’s and indictment. Doc is brining in guys like JaQuan Yulee and has guys like AJ Leggett. Now Pruett did have Randy Moss, but only for one season of MAC play. Maybe Pruett was the better coach and developer of talent.
So why should we temper our expectations? CUSA is not better than the MAC. Not to the extent that we should no longer hold true to the standard of “We Play for Championships”. Our fans have good reason to hold this program to the standard they do. It was preached to us for nearly 20 years and the results overwhelmingly back it up. Then we look at 2013-2014. We’re 23-4 in that two year span with two title game appearances, a conference championship two bowl wins, and finished 2014 ranked #22 in the coaches and #23 in the AP with one win away from the Access Bowl. Now four seasons later we haven’t finished better than 3rd in our division.
Has the competition gotten better or has the leadership at Marshall declined? Is excellence no longer being demanded? Have we gone from being a flag bearer of the G5 to just happy to have a team, make a bowl, and hopefully peak every five seasons or so? I know some will say well we went from 2005-2012 being a terrible to at best average team. While that is true we were not being told to temper our expectations. Remember our AD going on TV holding up all the All-Time great football coaches that started out with terrible records trying to convince everyone to be patient with Snyder. Trying to draw parallels between Snyder and the likes of Lou Holtz, Frank Beamer, and I even think Tom Landry was on that list.
I don’t think it’s the fans that need to change their tune.