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HERDNATION.COM Appalachian State expert gives his take and prediction on tonight's game

Chris McLaughlin

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Feb 14, 2006
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HN went in-depth with an expert that covers MU's upcoming opponent. In this week's "Ask the Expert," we caught up with App State Nation to get their thoughts and perspective on tonight's game.

1. Talk a little bit about App State's start to the season.
I think that if you had asked most reasonable App fans before the season if they would take 2-1 going into the Marshall game, they would have taken it. There were several question marks going into 2021, and for the first time since 2016, we went into this season not being the defending conference champs.

The main question mark was at QB. Chase Brice transferred from Duke, where he led the nation in turnovers in 2020. Many App fans surmised that the reason for his struggles in Durham was his lack of supporting cast and offensive line, but others were less optimistic about his arrival. Continuity at the QB position has been one of the driving factors in our success following the transition to FBS, with only 2 starters over a 7-year time span, so there was a sense of nervousness about transitioning to a new signal-caller.

Another question mark going into the season was an offensive line which lost multiple starters and saw guard Baer Hunter make the move over to the all-important center position for 2021. We have prided ourselves on offensive line play over the years and in my opinion, that unit has been the main catalyst for our FBS success. App has been a run-first offense for quite some time now, and our zone blocking scheme has given defenses fits over the years, so it was different to head into the season with tempered expectations there.

The third question mark was a change at offensive coordinator. Frank Ponce comes back to App State (where he was previously QB coach) from Louisville and gets his first chance to be a playcaller at this level. A multi-year disciple of former App head coach Scott Satterfield, Ponce brings many of the same concepts back to Boone that we are so familiar with from the Satterfield era, but perhaps with a bit more flair than the often-conservative Satterfield.

ECU: This was a game that App fans have been looking forward to for quite some time. It was a chance to show our state that, while we had already passed the Pirates on the field, that we have equaled or surpassed them as a fanbase as well. With historically average P5 football in NC and ECU as the only other “football school” in the state, it was a chance to establish ourselves as the premier football culture in North Carolina. And there was no better place to do it than in an NFL stadium in our biggest alumni hotbed in Charlotte. As far as the game, Chase Brice had a solid performance against the Pirates, including a highlight-reel pinpoint deep ball for his first career TD in Black and Gold. He added one more TD and managed the game well for his first performance. Shawn Clark has preached that Chase doesn’t have to win us games, but rather simply be a “game manager.” He did a great job of getting the ball to his playmakers and only made one key mistake, an interception that came after the game was already in hand. As far as the offensive line, that unit dispelled all doubt in week 1, giving up only 1 sack and paving the way for 6.3 yards per carry on the ground. Our defense, which returns 10 starters from 2020, gave the Pirates fits after giving up an early TD. Defensive coordinator Dale Jones’ aggressive 3-4 saw Mountaineers coming after ECU QB Holton Ahlers from all angles, picking up 4 sacks on the night, all from the linebacker position. We also held ECU to a paltry 3.6 yards per carry on the ground, forcing them to put the ball in the air. At the end of the day, the 33-19 score really didn’t properly encapsulate the flow of the game, which was a fairly dominating performance by App State. I think the Chase Brice interception when the game was 33-9 and App was in Pirate territory trying to make it 40-9 kind of took away our momentum and we coasted in down the stretch and allowed one “garbage time” TD. Overall, we were very pleased with the win over what many think is an ECU program ready to turn the corner under Mike Houston.

Miami: After what most felt was a statement win against an in-state peer in week 1, expectations were quite high going down to Miami to face the Hurricanes in week 2. This is the kind of game that has eluded us in the past, with App State going winless against ranked opponents since the famous Michigan win in 2007. A couple of OT close calls against Tennessee in 2016 and Penn State in 2018, but no wins. It was quickly evident in this game that App State belonged on the field with Miami much more than our previous matchup with the Hurricanes in 2016 in Boone, a 45-10 win for “The U”. Both defenses brought pressure all night, forcing D’Eriq King and Chase Brice to make quick decisions and throw on the run. Brice showed some chinks in his armor, missing on a few throws which stalled drives, and getting a bit unlucky on a tipped ball INT which gave Miami the ball inside our 10-yard line. We recovered nicely though, with a methodical drive capped off by a 4th and 2 conversion and TD from RB Cam Peoples from 28 yards out to tie the score. While we went into halftime with the lead, I think the turning point in this ballgame was Shawn Clark’s decision not to go for points with a minute left in the half. He was happy to have the lead on the road at that point, but it seemed to kill our momentum and probably hurt our morale a bit to see the head man go conservative into the half. In the second half, App had trouble maintaining the run game, as Miami started to figure out how to attack our zone scheme. There were several opportunities to win the game down the stretch, but a few key drops from WRs on the potential game-winning drive left the Mountaineers 2 points short and still hunting for that elusive ranked win. The defense did enough to win, holding Miami to field goals in the redzone and only allowing one TD other than the 6-yard short field we gave them for their first score, but the offense simply didn’t make enough big plays.

Elon: There probably isn’t much that can be gleaned from this game. App coasted through the first half a bit and was stymied in the run game by Elon’s stacked box early, but was able to toss the ball around through the air with relative ease all afternoon. The veteran WR quartet of Corey Sutton, Malik Williams, Jalen Virgil, and Thomas Hennigan combined for 302 yards as App State took what Elon gave them most of the game. The App defense picked up 3 sacks, all from LB D’Marco Jackson, who was all over the field with a couple other key linebackers out with nagging injuries. The offense got into a rhythm in the 2nd half, re-establishing the run and putting the game out of reach early in the 3rd. We played mostly reserves in the 4th quarter and ended up with a respectable winning margin of 34 after a slightly sluggish first half.

2. Where do you see App State's advantage over Marshall in this game?
I think the main advantages for App State in this game are intangible. The 2 teams should be fairly even on paper, so App will need to take advantage of these factors to win.
For one, this is an extremely veteran squad. App has 15 “super seniors” who have played a ton of football for the Black and Gold. We return 10 starters on defense and most of our skill position players on offense. We return senior WR Corey Sutton, who opted out of the 2020 season to fully recover from a 2019 injury, which has allowed us to open up the field a bit more and become a little less one-dimensionally run-dependent.

Secondly, we’ll have the home field advantage for this game. While Thursday crowds in Boone in the past have been smaller in number, it can be a generally more raucous environment with only die-hards and students. Combined with the national TV opportunity, I think it will be a game with a big-time feel. Marshall will need to come out fast to take the crowd out of the game.
Thirdly, we’ll have the revenge factor. We are lucky in that we get to face all 3 teams that beat us in 2020 again in 2021. The 2020 matchup against Marshall was a frustrating one for us. It was one of those rare games for App fans where we really felt like the opponent dominated us in the trenches. It was our first game held to single digits in scoring since we played at Georgia in 2013. For us to win, I think we need to come out with a chip on our shoulder and ready to match Marshall’s intensity this time around, something we were unable to do in 2020.
 
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3. What about Marshall concerns you the most for App State?
For one, Marshall is going to come to Boone extremely angry that they let the ECU game slip away late. As an App fan, we know all too well what a team coming off of a tough loss can do. We are typically very good coming off a loss, and most well-coached teams such as Marshall are. I’m nervous about an angry Herd showing up in Boone and setting the tone.
After the performance of Marshall’s offensive line and defensive front 7 against App in 2020, that’s my main concern in 2021. Like I mentioned earlier, that was the most dominating performance of any team in both trenches against us last season. I also think Marshall will try to be aggressive on both sides of the ball. I’d expect them to try to bring pressure to force Chase Brice to make quick decisions which can lead to big plays on defense. It also seems like the 2021 version of the Marshall offense is a lot more aggressive than 2020 as well. I’d expect Grant Wells and company to try to take some shots early to keep our secondary honest. We have struggled in the past with big physical receivers, so Corey Gammage and Xavier Gaines could spell trouble. App will try to take away the big play and force Marshall to sustain drives and convert in the redzone, but this is probably the best offense we’ve seen in 2021, including Miami, so it will be a difficult task.

4. Score prediction and how you see the game playing out?
With this game being on ESPN and being the only FBS game on Thursday, it is going to depend on who can handle the big stage. I will say that for App to be successful, we have to match Marshall’s intensity. I’ll predict that there will be multiple times in this game where things get a little chippy, and whichever team can channel that intensity will win.
I don’t see this game being a blowout either way. It’s going to come down to who executes in the 4th quarter. Obviously Marshall will be disappointed with how they closed last week, and App also struggled in the 4th against ECU and Miami, so both teams should come out fired up heading into the final quarter.

Lastly, this is a game that I think many would like to see become a rivalry again and I’m sure many of the players will have heard about the history in the lead up to this game. With that said, rivalry games can be so unpredictable. I’ve tried to make a policy not to put out official score predictions, but I’ll make one exception since you asked for one. I can’t pick App to lose at home. 31-24, Mountaineers.

5. Lastly, what are your thoughts on all the expansion/re-alignment talk? Marshall fans would love to eventually be in the same conference as Appalachian State. Is the feeling mutual?
This is obviously an extremely hot topic right now, and I’ve made my feelings known on Twitter. Unequivocally, Marshall and ECU are most App fans’ #1 and #2 desired conference mates (within reason) that are not currently in the Sun Belt. We made the mistake in the late 70s of not following ECU’s lead when 1-A split from 1-AA. We also took way too long to follow Marshall’s lead to FBS.
I don’t know how all this ends up playing out, but I’ve made my prediction that I think App and Marshall will be conference mates again, and I’ve said multiple times that we 100% belong in the same league. There are so many similarities between the fan bases and the relative proximity just makes it make more sense. While it could be AAC, the latest news suggests they are looking westward. I think Marshall will be sure that they don’t have a ticket to the AAC first, as will App, then Marshall will be target #1 for the Sun Belt. I’m excited for the prospect of rekindling this rivalry.

Safe travels to anyone coming to the game and good luck to The Herd!
 
I agree I think this will happen. I think MU, App State, Charlotte, Coastal, Liberty will end up in the same league
 
A tweet from the App Nation guys:

The more I read the more this makes sense... Whether the top 3-4 teams in the Sun Belt join CUSA after defections, Marshall and few others join the Sun Belt, or some new Franken-conference is created, the schools that actually care about football should work to end up together (and I think they will).

And by teams that care about football, I mean – Marshall, App, Coastal, Liberty, Western Kentucky, UAB, Louisiana, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, Arkansas State, etc.
 
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