The Next Realignment Begins
- Thread starter The Real SamC
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That's not happening. P10 has already said they are not interested in expansion.
I think the next round of realignment will focus on “quality” vs cable viewers, as people are dropping cable tv. For example, Syracuse brings a lot to the table with cable subscribers, but jack with steamers. Exciting matchups per steaming will gain conferences more money than 25 cents for every cable subscriber in a viewing area..
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Apple TV, Amazon, Google etc competing with ESPN, FOX, CBS for streaming rights.
The SEC has said forever they weren’t interested in expanding the conference further, then suddenly go in for the kill grabbing up two of the biggest programs in the country. They saw the writing on the wall, the future of CFB. No more Bama vs community college, it will be power programs playing each other within their own conference starting week one…..exciting matchups equals more streaming money, and the conference gets to keep all the money. They will probably literally only play conference games until the playoffs and could likely play each other there…
I think the SEC takes more forcing a consolidation of the rest of the conferences. Probably Power 4 that’s been speculated for years.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Apple TV, Amazon, Google etc competing with ESPN, FOX, CBS for streaming rights.
The SEC has said forever they weren’t interested in expanding the conference further, then suddenly go in for the kill grabbing up two of the biggest programs in the country. They saw the writing on the wall, the future of CFB. No more Bama vs community college, it will be power programs playing each other within their own conference starting week one…..exciting matchups equals more streaming money, and the conference gets to keep all the money. They will probably literally only play conference games until the playoffs and could likely play each other there…
I think the SEC takes more forcing a consolidation of the rest of the conferences. Probably Power 4 that’s been speculated for years.
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As to Marshall, which is what I care about, IF the AAC gets raided, depending on who it is, that is probably our goal. The issue is that the AAC teams bring noting to the table for the remnant Little 8. They could try to bridge WVU with maybe Cincinnati, but the #1 team in metro Cincinnati is Ohio State, followed by Kentucky, followed by Notre Dame. UC comes in about 10th. Or they could let Houston play at the big kids' table. Houston probably has a similar status in metro Houston that UC does in the Queen City.
If that does not happen, and, as I think it will, the MAC collapses, then a re-shake of the SBC, CUSA, and the MAC teams that can afford to live in the brave new world, along geographic lines is the best result. If the MAC lives, then just SBC and CUSA in the shaker. Really, we are looking at being in, whatever they call it, the second division.
As to other local teams.
UK is grandfathered into the SEC, and, obviously, kings of basketball. And they are picked 3rd in the SEC E this year, which is about as good as they can ever hope for. They are fine.
Ohio is one of the teams that will survive the, IMHO, coming MAC implosion. If that happens, pick them up. If the MAC lives on, then that is where they are, forever. The MAC will become less and less relevant every year.
OSU, well will be in the Big 10 forever, and will lose to the SEC or ACC team in the playoffs, forever.
WVU, is in real trouble. In media terms, there isn't a worse candidate. But the main thing is will anybody take the new system less seriously is WVU is put in the AAC? Of course not. It is where they belonged all along.
If that does not happen, and, as I think it will, the MAC collapses, then a re-shake of the SBC, CUSA, and the MAC teams that can afford to live in the brave new world, along geographic lines is the best result. If the MAC lives, then just SBC and CUSA in the shaker. Really, we are looking at being in, whatever they call it, the second division.
As to other local teams.
UK is grandfathered into the SEC, and, obviously, kings of basketball. And they are picked 3rd in the SEC E this year, which is about as good as they can ever hope for. They are fine.
Ohio is one of the teams that will survive the, IMHO, coming MAC implosion. If that happens, pick them up. If the MAC lives on, then that is where they are, forever. The MAC will become less and less relevant every year.
OSU, well will be in the Big 10 forever, and will lose to the SEC or ACC team in the playoffs, forever.
WVU, is in real trouble. In media terms, there isn't a worse candidate. But the main thing is will anybody take the new system less seriously is WVU is put in the AAC? Of course not. It is where they belonged all along.
Kansas has reached out to the b10 yesterday per 97.1 talk radio ( sports radio here in michigan)
The MAC is going nowhere. They are comfortable with who they are.
There were buggy whip manufacturers, or to get more modern, Blockbuster Video clerks, who were comfortable too. Then the world changed.
The college sports world, with pay the players NIL just changed. Asking under-water students to take on another $5K in loan debt, or asking broke Rust Belt state government to further subsidize professional sports which the students have no interest in, is a different ask than it was just a few months ago.
The MAC is basically the Pioneer League of FBS. They'll be fine.
I’d argue that the MAC is the most stable of the G5 conferences.
Don't think they need better basketball - Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Iowa, Purdue, Indiana, Maryland - even Rutgers made the tourney last year IIRC. Pretty good already in basketball. Plus Kansas has a lot of baggage that the B1G doesn't need with negative buzz already coming from PSU, Michigan, Michigan St., Ohio State, Minnesota, Iowa, Northwestern, all in the last 10 years. I think Iowa State is actually a better fit than either of these 2 Kansas schools.
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I think wvu likely ends up in patchwork B12 or ultimately ACC, won’t ever make B10 and long shot could end up AAC but really doubt it.
some things to think about …
if Big 10 looks to add why do they have to add B12 leftovers? They poached the ACC before with Maryland and the ACC isn’t what it used to be l(blue blood wise). Tell me the B10 wouldn’t consider ND? What if blue bloods like UVA (gov made them support VT membership) or UNC considered getting away from the the ACC and it’s big least leftovers? Maybe Kansas goes as well as one from ACC or ND?
Any move like that allows ACC to take wvu as another big least leftover and if you are having wvu and UL? Why not UC? And at that point maybe UCF works as well?
then B12 maybe raids AAC teams like UH?
Plus there may be a lot more moving around than just the standard speculation about B12 teams finding homes.
all I know is CLEARLY the SEC and B10 are above ACC and PAC 12 and whatever remains of B12. Why wouldn’t many members of ACC or remaining B12 love to land in the B10 after you see how this is shaking out?
and why wouldn’t the Big 10 be loving the thought of adding 2 of the following schools like Kansas, ND, Virginia or UNC? This keeps them way ahead of SEC in BB and not far off in FB
some things to think about …
if Big 10 looks to add why do they have to add B12 leftovers? They poached the ACC before with Maryland and the ACC isn’t what it used to be l(blue blood wise). Tell me the B10 wouldn’t consider ND? What if blue bloods like UVA (gov made them support VT membership) or UNC considered getting away from the the ACC and it’s big least leftovers? Maybe Kansas goes as well as one from ACC or ND?
Any move like that allows ACC to take wvu as another big least leftover and if you are having wvu and UL? Why not UC? And at that point maybe UCF works as well?
then B12 maybe raids AAC teams like UH?
Plus there may be a lot more moving around than just the standard speculation about B12 teams finding homes.
all I know is CLEARLY the SEC and B10 are above ACC and PAC 12 and whatever remains of B12. Why wouldn’t many members of ACC or remaining B12 love to land in the B10 after you see how this is shaking out?
and why wouldn’t the Big 10 be loving the thought of adding 2 of the following schools like Kansas, ND, Virginia or UNC? This keeps them way ahead of SEC in BB and not far off in FB
The Big 10 ain’t all that, other than OS can you remember the last football NC. How many championships has the the ACC won in basketball since the last B10 championship. ACC has had 3 different schools win the football championship in the last 30 years.
Big 10 would take Kansas and Iowa State. Nobody else is an AAU member that they'd be interested in nor is there anyone that makes more geographic sense.
I'm sure plenty of AAC teams are looking to jump to the ACC and a few could qualify.
But as said earlier, the ACC won't expand unless it has to and who really adds value to the conference?
The ACC schools I mentioned are. Unc and uva.
I’m totally speculating and haven’t read any rumors on it but I have to think UNC and UVA can look around ACC and say this neighborhood going down hill with recent additions and potential future additions.
ACC won’t be in same universe as SEC and B10
We need to push to add Martinsburg to C-USA so that we can recruit that area 🤪
academics were the problem the last go around
Wouldn't they have to add schools with value to renegotiate, if so, which schools actually add value?
Adding Notre Dame as a full fledged member would add a ton of value.
Well a new law in TX has been proposed that any college wanting to change conferences must have permission from the State legislature. But can't go anywhere before the change (if news reports can be trusted on a done deal in the next 2 weeks) since there is not a quorum in the state senate. Oh well, will be a done deal before the legislature can make a change.
Problem is, ND is very hesitant to join as a full fledged member.
Beyond ND, who really adds value?
wvu fans will proclaim their rivalries with VT and Pitt, but those games could be scheduled as OOC games (and have been) without having to be invited to the ACC.
Beyond that, does wvu bring anything else?
I just heard on Charlotte sports talk that WVU would be a program that the ACC "would take a hard look at" if the ACC were to expand as the BIg12 implodes... Also mentioned a possible reunion with Maryland if the deck shuffled in a way that made that possible. (Big10 takes Kansas/KState and a few other midwest Big12 teams and needs to essentially liquidate Maryland/Rutgers to the East Coast ACC).
MD and Rutgers would be fools to leave the highest revenue generating conference.
This is, for once, about what legitimate value a team adds to a conference. It made total sense for UT and OU to join since you have the #1 and #7 highest earning programs joining the SEC.
The ACC's TV deal is bad, and would keep them at the far bottom of revenue generating conferences. ND joining as a full member would give the ACC the leverage to re-negotiate a better TV deal, but does wvu?
Sounds like local sports radio spit ballin. I mean it wouldn't shock me if wvu did get in. Of the remaining Big XII it just makes more sense. At least geographically.
I just don't see how Maryland is even an option. Not after all they had to do to leave. Are they unhappy in the B1G?
I could see Baylor getting in as their football isn't bad and they did just win a natty in basketball. An outside shot would be UCF. Maybe UC, but for some reason that seems more remote.
They may take a hard look at wvu. Whether they take them or not we'll see. One could make the argument that wvu is less attractive now than they were when they first tried to get into the ACC.
Does wvu actually do anything to boost the ACC or are you just adding them because they're in your geographical footprint?
It's going to be interesting to see how this all plays out.
And Awful Announcing reports, and I should have known, that the fix is already in, and the whole thing is being dictated behind the scenes by the focus of evil in the sports world. ESPN.
Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC. Little 8 merge with the AAC.
Trying to live, the Little 8 are proposing that Texas and Oklahoma get 1 1/2 shares each of the conference’s TV money. This is on top of the “third tier” system that only the Big 2, Little 8 currently has where each team retains one football and three basketball games (along with most of the minor sports rights) which show up, in the Little 8’s case, on ESPN+ for little $$, and in the Big 2’s case, on the dedicated Longhorn Network for BIG $$, and on Bally’s Sports regionally in Oklahoma and nearby, for pretty big $$ (it is thought that Texas pays Oklahoma some $$ to balance things out).
The only two flies in the ointment are Texas A&M, for obvious reasons, and Oklahoma State, which is trying to do a Virginia/Virginia Tech type deal
Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC. Little 8 merge with the AAC.
Trying to live, the Little 8 are proposing that Texas and Oklahoma get 1 1/2 shares each of the conference’s TV money. This is on top of the “third tier” system that only the Big 2, Little 8 currently has where each team retains one football and three basketball games (along with most of the minor sports rights) which show up, in the Little 8’s case, on ESPN+ for little $$, and in the Big 2’s case, on the dedicated Longhorn Network for BIG $$, and on Bally’s Sports regionally in Oklahoma and nearby, for pretty big $$ (it is thought that Texas pays Oklahoma some $$ to balance things out).
The only two flies in the ointment are Texas A&M, for obvious reasons, and Oklahoma State, which is trying to do a Virginia/Virginia Tech type deal
OU and UT currently even out the conference at 16, why make it uneven at 17 just for game?
OU can still make Bedlam happen every year without OSU being in the SEC.
To be brutally honest, I bet the SEC and Big 10 raid the ACC.
I agree that wvu back in 2012 or whenever this first happened, was in much better shape to be included.
Now? Not so much. They haven't made any noise in Big 12 football minus the first 5 games they ever played. Basketball is routinely a Sweet 16 level program but no further. Everything else is just whatever. Their TV market is awful and small. Their academics, while better, aren't on par with the ACC. I read somewhere around #241, making them the lowest of P5 schools.
They'll scream "but...Louisville!" Which was a scramble move by the ACC when MD left on a semi-unknown basis, so they bypassed Louisville's academics and looked at what else they had to offer.
Its doubtful the ACC needs to rush this since its who THEY need, so they can really look.
Hence why I thought Cincy was a better option given their location, large student body, endowment is in the billions, TV market is quite large, growing city, better academics, and their football team has had recent success and basketball is always competitive. As I said, the ACC also gets the recruiting ground in the state of ohio, where they don't have a presence in.
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yes, but why does ND want in that declining league (relative to SEC and B10)? if they can get in the Big10 that's where they should go.
which makes me think it becomes more and more likely that UVA and potentially UNC are Big10 targets or become open to the idea. This elites have already had to let VT and UL in and added FSU years earlier (and maybe add wvu now??).....they just might think following Maryland to the Big 10 makes sense. I get it that UVA and UNC are long shots to Big10 but If I'm the Big 10 I'm thinking (when considering FB primarily and secondarily basketball) I'm liking the thought of getting to 16 teams with any 2 of the following 4...
ND, Kansas, UVA, UNC.
Iowa ST....adds nothing. And it looks like the ACC is in decline relative to SEC Big10 which makes it more attractive to be open to leaving. Well, if you are one of the more valuable schools.
ND is head scratchingly not an AAU member. It really is an official criteria to be invited, but perhaps there might be an exception made.
ND's value would give the ACC the ability to re-negotiate a better TV deal as a full member.
I know that, but they are ND and I believe the Big10 has courted them long before. In any case, Nebraska has lost their AAU and are in.
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