HN went in-depth with an expert that covers MU's upcoming opponent. In this week's "Ask the Expert," we caught up with Hannah Page from InsideHillTopperSports.com to get her thoughts and perspective on this weekend's game.
Talk a little bit about Bailey Zappe. He’s been unreal.
Unreal is right. What’s amazing about Zappe – aside from his general, record-chasing stats – is that he transitioned to the FBS like it was just another day in the office; he didn’t need a few games to find his groove. For that reason, he made an immediate impact on an offense looking to establish its identity and score a lot of points. He has been incredibly consistent no matter the opponent. His advanced stats – metrics like QBR, EPA, Success Rate, Big Time Throws, Adjusted Completion Percentage, etc. – have been among the best in the nation.
Zach Kittley is incredibly young but has been extremely successful as an OC. What is it about his offense that gives defenses so much trouble?
Generally, good Air Raid offenses are just plain hard to stop and overwhelming by nature. And Kittley’s/WKU’s Air Raid is a fine-tuned, well-oiled monster of a machine. Defenses know it is coming but, so far, WKU has dismantled just about every single one. First key, it all starts up front. WKU ranks #1 in PFF’s Grade for Pass Blocking. Those guys are giving Zappe all day, plus some.
Second key, a smart quarterback who can read the defense, make audibles, checkdowns, and ultimately have a quick, accurate release. Third key, a group of receivers – like Jerreth Sterns and Mitchell Tinsley - able to make plays in tight windows. The combination of the hurry-up pace while effectively and successfully implementing short screen passes with YAC and dashes of deep downfield passes is lethal. I’d be remiss to not mention the fact that when the Tops do run and keep the defense honest, they run at a huge 50.2% success rate (which is only second to Marshall in Conference USA).
Where do you see WKU’s real strength in this match-up? Where does WKU have the biggest edge?
Not to sound like a broken record, but WKU’s efficient Air Raid is their strength and biggest edge. Every involved personnel executes so well…coaches, a steadfast o-line, Zappe, a deep set of receivers, and reliable backs.
…that and WKU’s defense has been riding a wave of momentum having forced 15 turnovers in the past three games.
What match-up concerns do you have both offensively and defensively for WKU against Marshall?
I’ll start off defensively. Marshall will be the best and most balanced offense WKU has faced since UTSA. WKU has been able to focus on shutting down some solid running backs and force the respective quarterback to lead the offense with his arm. With 13 interceptions in 3 games, it is fair to say WKU’s approach has worked, thus far. Even so, if WKU shuts down Rasheen Ali, they still face a good, productive passing game from Grant Wells & Co.
The first thing that came to mind, offensively, was the thrown pick-six during the FAU game. Mistakes and turnovers from WKU’s offense, albeit rare, haven’t drastically affected expected points lost or the outcome of the game. But during a high-stakes rivalry game, with two teams playing for a division crown…? Both teams have a good Eckel Rate (productive drives with scoring opportunities (big play touchdowns and/or first-and-10 across the opponent’s 40-yard line)), so whoever wins the turnover battle will likely come out on top.
What is your breakdown and score prediction for how this game might play out?
I’m not surprised that the east division title boils down to a rivalry game. Like Casey Warner and Sean Williams said in Inside Hilltopper Sports’ podcast, I just don’t see this being a blowout win for either team. I’m an analytics nerd so I ran some ratings/rankings, and the top 4 teams in Conference USA, right now are: 1) UTSA, 2) WKU, 3) UAB, and 4) Marshall.
WKU’s offense has been WKU’s offense since day 1. And even more so lately, we’re witnessing their prowess as Zappe connects not only with Sterns but Tinsley, Malachi Corley, Daewood Davis, Dalvin Smith, and tight end Joey Beljan, as well. Additionally, after a 1-4 start, WKU’s defense has maintained a bit more of a ‘bend but don’t break’ style of play, made some key adjustments, and it has been paying off.
WKU 36, Marshall 34
Talk a little bit about Bailey Zappe. He’s been unreal.
Unreal is right. What’s amazing about Zappe – aside from his general, record-chasing stats – is that he transitioned to the FBS like it was just another day in the office; he didn’t need a few games to find his groove. For that reason, he made an immediate impact on an offense looking to establish its identity and score a lot of points. He has been incredibly consistent no matter the opponent. His advanced stats – metrics like QBR, EPA, Success Rate, Big Time Throws, Adjusted Completion Percentage, etc. – have been among the best in the nation.
Zach Kittley is incredibly young but has been extremely successful as an OC. What is it about his offense that gives defenses so much trouble?
Generally, good Air Raid offenses are just plain hard to stop and overwhelming by nature. And Kittley’s/WKU’s Air Raid is a fine-tuned, well-oiled monster of a machine. Defenses know it is coming but, so far, WKU has dismantled just about every single one. First key, it all starts up front. WKU ranks #1 in PFF’s Grade for Pass Blocking. Those guys are giving Zappe all day, plus some.
Second key, a smart quarterback who can read the defense, make audibles, checkdowns, and ultimately have a quick, accurate release. Third key, a group of receivers – like Jerreth Sterns and Mitchell Tinsley - able to make plays in tight windows. The combination of the hurry-up pace while effectively and successfully implementing short screen passes with YAC and dashes of deep downfield passes is lethal. I’d be remiss to not mention the fact that when the Tops do run and keep the defense honest, they run at a huge 50.2% success rate (which is only second to Marshall in Conference USA).
Where do you see WKU’s real strength in this match-up? Where does WKU have the biggest edge?
Not to sound like a broken record, but WKU’s efficient Air Raid is their strength and biggest edge. Every involved personnel executes so well…coaches, a steadfast o-line, Zappe, a deep set of receivers, and reliable backs.
…that and WKU’s defense has been riding a wave of momentum having forced 15 turnovers in the past three games.
What match-up concerns do you have both offensively and defensively for WKU against Marshall?
I’ll start off defensively. Marshall will be the best and most balanced offense WKU has faced since UTSA. WKU has been able to focus on shutting down some solid running backs and force the respective quarterback to lead the offense with his arm. With 13 interceptions in 3 games, it is fair to say WKU’s approach has worked, thus far. Even so, if WKU shuts down Rasheen Ali, they still face a good, productive passing game from Grant Wells & Co.
The first thing that came to mind, offensively, was the thrown pick-six during the FAU game. Mistakes and turnovers from WKU’s offense, albeit rare, haven’t drastically affected expected points lost or the outcome of the game. But during a high-stakes rivalry game, with two teams playing for a division crown…? Both teams have a good Eckel Rate (productive drives with scoring opportunities (big play touchdowns and/or first-and-10 across the opponent’s 40-yard line)), so whoever wins the turnover battle will likely come out on top.
What is your breakdown and score prediction for how this game might play out?
I’m not surprised that the east division title boils down to a rivalry game. Like Casey Warner and Sean Williams said in Inside Hilltopper Sports’ podcast, I just don’t see this being a blowout win for either team. I’m an analytics nerd so I ran some ratings/rankings, and the top 4 teams in Conference USA, right now are: 1) UTSA, 2) WKU, 3) UAB, and 4) Marshall.
WKU’s offense has been WKU’s offense since day 1. And even more so lately, we’re witnessing their prowess as Zappe connects not only with Sterns but Tinsley, Malachi Corley, Daewood Davis, Dalvin Smith, and tight end Joey Beljan, as well. Additionally, after a 1-4 start, WKU’s defense has maintained a bit more of a ‘bend but don’t break’ style of play, made some key adjustments, and it has been paying off.
WKU 36, Marshall 34
