Is our next opponent and they beat Middle Tennessee 28-13. How do we fare at Boca Raton on Friday night?
Florida Atlantic University
- Thread starter bbneutralfan
- Start date
Hate to piss in the cornflakes but I don’t think we fair well at all.
They’ll win by at least 2 TD’s sad to say.
Hope I can eat a good helping of crow though.
They’ll win by at least 2 TD’s sad to say.
Hope I can eat a good helping of crow though.
Well, we are the only college game being played Friday nite! Would be a great time for IG to stop throwing the football too high for his receivers to catch!!
Litton did the same thing. Seems that our staff can’t correct it. Shouldn’t be that hard.
Actually, Pitt vs. Syracuse and Ohio State vs. Northwestern will overlap with Marshall's game. And then the late night UNLV/Fresno game.
As for the matchup, it should be an interesting test, as FAU's weakness seems to be their pass D. They've given up over 200 yards to every opponent, including Wagner. The average given up per game is 272 yards. But, they do get their share of INTs with 8 for the season (compared to our 2).
Their strength is the offensive passing game, with 270 yards per game. And, before the last two games, their rushing offense was really bad (103 yards per game). But, they've had 236 and 203 the past two games.
I look at their UCF loss as equivelent to our blowout loss to Cincy. They played Ball State tight (possibly their equivelent to our Ohio game). You could argue that our outcome vs. Middle Tennessee SHOULD have been the similar to theirs (with our 600 yards of offense, but failure to convert points). If you use Middle as the measuring stick, I don't see them being out of our league by any means.
Their strength is the offensive passing game, with 270 yards per game. And, before the last two games, their rushing offense was really bad (103 yards per game). But, they've had 236 and 203 the past two games.
I look at their UCF loss as equivelent to our blowout loss to Cincy. They played Ball State tight (possibly their equivelent to our Ohio game). You could argue that our outcome vs. Middle Tennessee SHOULD have been the similar to theirs (with our 600 yards of offense, but failure to convert points). If you use Middle as the measuring stick, I don't see them being out of our league by any means.
Sammy, is that you?
Yes, yes it is. You found me out. I've been reading your shix for years under this user name. Oh well, guess the cat is out of the bag. Smart axx
Stat of the day:
We opened as a 4 point underdog. Doc is 5-23 as a road underdog as head coach of Marshall.
We opened as a 4 point underdog. Doc is 5-23 as a road underdog as head coach of Marshall.
......Had the Conf USA filter on the schedule! Should have known better.
Nice stat and all. But road underdogs are road underdogs for a reason. They are suppose to lose.
Only 15 teams this season have a winning record as a road underdog. Only 13 did last year. And twice that many went winless. Again. For a reason
If we're over .250 as a road favorite I'd be surprised. I feel like Ohio alone has put that stat in the toilet.
Okay, how about this:
As mentioned, since becoming the HC in 2010 Doc is 5-23 as a road dog. That 5-23 record ties him ODU for the 95th worst record as a road dog in FBS with a 17.9% winning percentage. Some notables from the same time period:
NIU has the highest G5 road dog winning percentage at 44%.
Houston at 38.9% is second.
WKU leads CUSA with a 38.2% win percentage, over twice the winning percentage of Doc.
36 G5 schools have a better winning percentage as a road dog.
9 CUSA schools have a better winning percentage as a road dog and, as mentioned, ODU has the same percentage.
25% is the average winning percentage for road dogs. My point remains valid, we have underperformed as a road dog.
Nah, just that I try and keep it simple for Aaron without trying to make him feel too compelled to protect Doc. So I give a little piece of information to make the point and he has to chime in causing me to have to show how bad it really is. Charlotte has won more games as a road dog than Doc and they weren't even playing football when he got the Marshall job.
The purpose of the line is to get an equal amount bet on both sides of a proposition, since the book makes a 10% commission either way. It is not really to predict the game outcome.
If it makes Aaron fell better, Doc has won 66.67% of the time as a road favorite. Unfortunately, that ties Marshall for 91st among all FBS teams. In other words, not only do we lose more than average when we are the underdog, we also lose more than average when we are the favorite. The average is right at 75%.
Kudos. You were able to get at me, by again, hammering your program. I don’t get it. And arguing with you is pointless.
But. A little inside your numbers that you are making look potentially worse than they are. And I am not saying they are good.
2010 and 2011 was not good. Total 1-9 as a road underdog
2012 we were 4th in CUSA
2013 we were 0-1
2014 we were never a road underdog
So for two years we were 0-1 total. Some props have to be given for going from being a road dog 9 times in two years on 10 and 11 to just once.
2015 there were just 7 total road dog wins in cusa.
2016 we sucked. No need to even show it
2017 we were only 8th. We won 1 time as a road dog. No one won more than 2 so it was not like teams were just gobbling up wins
2018 we finished 2nd in cusa
2019 cusa teams have 2 total wins as a road dog. Those wins were over fiu and Troy.
So again. Teams lose as road underdogs for a reason.
Your post about losing as road favorites is not a good stat for sure.
But. A little inside your numbers that you are making look potentially worse than they are. And I am not saying they are good.
2010 and 2011 was not good. Total 1-9 as a road underdog
2012 we were 4th in CUSA
2013 we were 0-1
2014 we were never a road underdog
So for two years we were 0-1 total. Some props have to be given for going from being a road dog 9 times in two years on 10 and 11 to just once.
2015 there were just 7 total road dog wins in cusa.
2016 we sucked. No need to even show it
2017 we were only 8th. We won 1 time as a road dog. No one won more than 2 so it was not like teams were just gobbling up wins
2018 we finished 2nd in cusa
2019 cusa teams have 2 total wins as a road dog. Those wins were over fiu and Troy.
So again. Teams lose as road underdogs for a reason.
Your post about losing as road favorites is not a good stat for sure.
This is where we have a fundamental disagreement. You believe I am hammering the program because you view the head coach and the program as one in the same. I do not share that view or any possible rational behind such a view.
The program was here long before Doc became coach and will hopefully be here long after he is gone. My focus is on wanting the program to be the best it can be, to be something that is a source of pride for the community, something that has already been proven it can be. I am convinced, and the data will back me up, that Doc has shown that he is not the guy that can build this program to a consistent level of success. He had a nice run with Cato, but his recruiting has dropped off, he has consistently shown that the stage is often too big for him when the pressure is high, and his teams, even during the Cato years, lack consistency of execution, preparedness, and passion (and that has been much more evident in the last few years).
Doc isn't a horrible coach and could keep us comfortably in the 7-9 win range for probably 6 or 7 more years (as long as the rest of CUSA stays about the same), but that will lead us to a point where we will be lucky to sell 10,000 season tickets and have 18,000 at games. That's just not acceptable when you play in the conference of misfit toys where you have better facilities, fan base and tradition then nearly everyone in the league.
The program was here long before Doc became coach and will hopefully be here long after he is gone. My focus is on wanting the program to be the best it can be, to be something that is a source of pride for the community, something that has already been proven it can be. I am convinced, and the data will back me up, that Doc has shown that he is not the guy that can build this program to a consistent level of success. He had a nice run with Cato, but his recruiting has dropped off, he has consistently shown that the stage is often too big for him when the pressure is high, and his teams, even during the Cato years, lack consistency of execution, preparedness, and passion (and that has been much more evident in the last few years).
Doc isn't a horrible coach and could keep us comfortably in the 7-9 win range for probably 6 or 7 more years (as long as the rest of CUSA stays about the same), but that will lead us to a point where we will be lucky to sell 10,000 season tickets and have 18,000 at games. That's just not acceptable when you play in the conference of misfit toys where you have better facilities, fan base and tradition then nearly everyone in the league.
Exactly this. Doc is not the program. In fact, he hasn't been great for the program at all.
If anybody can't recognize that the football program is stagnated then, they just are not being honest with themselves.
